Sunday, January 11, 2004

Vlad the Impaler

Well, ESPN is reporting that the Angels signed Vlad Guerrero for 5 years, $70M. That smells like trouble for the AL West. The Angels' have added Kelvim Escobar, Bartolo Colon, Jose Guillen and now Vladimir. Meanwhile, they lost Brad Fullmer, Scott Spezio, Shawn Wooten and Benji Gil.

The Angels won 77 games last year, which translates to 231 Win Shares. The departing players are taking 24 Win Shares (from 2003) with them, but the incoming players are bringing 67. That's a net gain of 43 Win Shares, or 14 Wins. Assuming everyone on the Angels plays the same in 2004 (a very risky assumption), the Angels should win about 91 games, which does not bode well for the rest of the AL West.

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