Wednesday, January 28, 2004

Bizarro A's

This past Sunday, Athletics Nation brought up the idea of the Twilight Zone A's, with all the position players the A's lost over the last two-plus years.
"Here, things have changed and the Athletics are suddenly a team that has retained past players and discarded the known current quantities." (Salaries ignored)
He goes on to compare the "Bizarro" A's lineup to the current A's lineup. His argument is that there isn't that big of a difference. In terms of career OBP (.343/.344) and OPS (.787/.730), the two lineups look remarkably similar.

I took a look at these same lineups from a (quick and dirty) Established Win Shares Level perspective. My method only looks at the last two years instead of the last three, simply because that's the only data I had readily at hand.

Bizarro A's:
Johnny Damon - 19.5 Win Shares
Ray Durham - 18
Jason Giambi - 31
Miguel Tejada - 28.5
Eric Hinske - 17
Jose Guillen - 11
Terrence Long - 11.5
Ramon Hernandez - 15.5
Angel Berroa - 16
Total - 292.5 (Translates to 56 Wins)

Actual A's:
Mark Kotsay - 18 Win Shares
Mark Ellis - 16
Eric Chavez - 25
Jermaine Dye - 7.5
Erubiel Durazo - 13.5
Bobby Kielty - 13.5
Scott Hatteberg - 15
Damian Miller - 10
Bobby Crosby - 8 (This one's a rough guess)
Total - 253 (Translates to 43 Wins)

That's a difference of 13 wins, which could potentially be the difference between 97 wins and 84 (assuming the pitching staffs are equal). Thirteen wins could be the difference between being in the hunt for the best record in baseball and missing the wildcard by 7 games. All other things being equal, I'd take the Bizarro A's.

Now that I feel bad about bashing AthleticsNation, let me point you towards his latest, Foulke You, You Foulking Foulke. I totally agree with him here that signing Zito, Mulder, Hudson and Chavez is infinitely more important than getting stuck with a reliever on the decline.

No comments:

Post a Comment