Thursday, May 27, 2004

The Blog Jinx

Over the last week or so I've suggested that Tim Hudson was pitching as well as anyone in the AL, and that Gary Sheffield is more-or-less clueless. Since then, both players have seen a drastic reversal of fortune. Well, at least for a game or two.

To measure their performances, I'm going to look at Game Scores for Hudson and Runs Created (in a single game) for Sheffield.

Runs Created Formula

(AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF)

Game Score calculation from ESPN:
Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk
So, we go through Gary and Tim's gamelogs and come up with the following information.

Prior to May 26...

  • Sheffield was averaging .76 RC/game played.
  • Sheffield had cracked 3 RC in a single game only twice.
  • Gary had topped out at 4.17 RC in a single game

On May 26, Sheff created 6.05 runs. That's a 45% increase over his previous best game.

And for Tim Hudson, prior to May 25...

  • He had a 5-1 record and a 2.90 ERA.
  • His average game score was a 58. (Randy's perfect game was a 100)
  • His lowest game score was a 33. (May 2 against the Devil Rays)
  • He had fallen below a game score of 50 only twice!

And then Timmy goes out against the Red Sox and helps himself to a gamescore of 22. Twenty-two!! That stinks.

So, I talk about Hudson's success and it disappears. I mention Sheffield's struggles and they disappear. Perhaps I should point out that the Angels are winning a lot of games...

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