Monday, June 23, 2008

Oakland A's Postseason Odds (June 23)

Baseball Prospectus maintains three different sets of Postseason Odds. The methodologies are slightly different, but the output always answers the same questionWhat are the chances that a particular team will win it's division or the wildcard?

The three sets of data:

(1) Standard Version (based on teams' current winning percentage and their remaining schedule)
(2) PECOTA Adjusted (like the standard version but adjusted for beginning-of-the-year winning % projection)
(3) ELO Version (based on the ELO methodology)

What do they say about the A's chances?
(1) 56% chance of making the postseason (down 11% in the last seven days)
(2) 52% chance of making the postseason
(3) 37% chance of making the postseason

In each of those cases, the A's best bet is winning the division. (All three systems expect the AL Wildcard to come out of the East: TB/BOS/NYY) So, what do we think about a roughly 50% chance at the postseason? I feel pretty good about it.

If you told any A's fan at the beginning of the season that the A's would have a 50-50 shot at the postseason when June 23rd rolled, they would have taken that in a second. It's been said before over and over again, and hopefully we'll have occasion to continue repeating it much later in the season - The A's are far exceeding our expectations in this so-called rebuilding year.

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