Wednesday, February 23, 2005

Barry Larkin - Hall of Famer (to be)

"[Barry] Larkin should be a no-brainer for the Hall of Fame."
- Aaron Gleeman, Larkin for the Hall? -- The Hardball Times

Gleeman does a great job of making Larkin's case based on OPS vs. his positional contemporaries, Runs Created vs. same and all-time shortstop Win Shares. I think it's a compelling case. But what does our Genetic Algorithm-based rule say?

MetricRequired CriteriaBarry LarkinMatch?
Games>27942180no
AB>39677937YES
Runs>11451329YES
Hits>12972340YES
TotalBases>44323527no
Doubles>252441YES
Triples>1476YES
HR>355198no
RBI>325960YES
StolenBases>341379YES
BB>658939YES
HBP>955YES
Strikeouts<2087817YES
Errors<399235YES
NumAllStars>912YES
Psbb>17YES
Psstrikeouts<424YES
Psslugging>0.2690.465YES
PSOBP>0.0100.397YES


With 16 matches out of 19 possibilities, Larkin is a definite Hall of Famer, according to our rule. Remember, we require 14 matches, so Larkin's well past the barrier.

The problem, as Gleeman says is that "in addition to the overall increase in offense that Larkin missed out on in his younger years, the end of his career coincides with the emergence of several outstanding offensive shortstops." Larkin may be facing an uphill battle for election, but I think he will eventually be (deservingly) enshrined.

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