Monday, July 7, 2008

A's Playoff Odds (July 7)

So, last Monday the A's had a 50% chance of making the playoffs and had big series coming up against division leaders Angels and White Sox. How'd the A's do?

W 6-1 @ LAA
L 3-5 @ LAA
L 4-7 @ LAA
W 3-2 @ CWS
W 7-1 @ CWS
L 1-6 @ CWS
L 3-4 @ CWS

Going 3-4 against division leaders isn't horrible, but it's not going to help you make up any ground, especially while the Angels are going 4-2. In fact, Baseball Prospectus' Postseason Odds say the A's are 6% less likely to make the postseason now (44%) than they were a week ago (50%). The entire difference there is essentially transferred to the Angels, who are now a 57% bet to make the playoffs. It's a bit early to say that things are slipping away from the A's, but BP is liking their chances less and less each week.

The A's need to start turning this around. The Angels have four games at Texas before coming to Oakland this weekend for a three-game set. Hopefully Josh Hamliton and the Texas heat can wear down the Angel pitchers before they head north for the last pre-All Star series. Meanwhile, the A's have four games at home against the Mariners. These *should* be winnable games, and with some luck, this is the week the A's take a step in the right direction.

(Of course as I'm writing this, Richie Sexson hits a three-run HR off Eveland in the top of the first inning of tonight's game. Ugh.)

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