Sitting Pretty

Ken Arneson is still nervous, but I am not. The A's magic number is down to 4, with ten games remaining. The Angels have a magic number too: 19.

For the Angels to make the playoffs, they would have to win all 7 of their games against the A's and their three games with Texas. Meanwhile, the A's would have to lose two of three to the Mariners while losing all of those seven games to the Angels. It's not impossible, but it is so unlikely that I feel comfortable *not* worrying.

Baseball Prospectus' Posteason Odds Report says the A's chances of winning the division are 98.5%. Sounds good to me.

Great Weekend for the A's

A's sweep the White Sox, Angels lose two of three to the Rangers (Fri-Sat-Sun) after winning the first game of their series.

End Result: A's Magic Number down to 7, A's division lead up to 7 games.

If you're an A's fan, you are absolutely feeling better today than you did on Friday. Hopefully, we can extend this lead a little more and make that last series in Anaheim irrelevant. It would be nice to relax that weekend and set up the rotation for a deep October run (please!).

Up next for the A's are the Cleveland Indians, who are 3-7 over their last ten games and without their best player (Travis Hafner) for the rest of the season. Let's Go A's!

Update: Baseball Prospectus' Postseason Odds Report says the A's have a 97% chance of making the playoffs at this point. I've been checking that report every day for two weeks now, and it's fantastic, especially because they chart the division races over time. Here's the AL West Division Race.

A's Inching Closer to the Playoffs

In the last week, the A's have gone 3-3. They won two of three in Tampa and lost two of three in Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Angels have gone 4-3. They took two of three from Toronto and lost two of three to the White Sox (both series in Anaheim) before winning the first game of a four-game series against the Rangers (in Arlington) last night.

So, the magic number has gone from 18 to 12. The A's need a combination of wins and Angels' losses adding up to twelve in order to clinch the division.

The two teams play each other seven times in these last 2+ weeks of the seasons. A mid-case scenario (neither best- nor worst-case), would have the A's winning just 3 of those 7 critical games. Those three victories alone would drop the A's magic number to 6. Let's say, conservatively, that the A's only win 3 of their 10 remaining non-Angels games. That drops the magic number to 3, and leaves the Angels without a whole lot of wiggle room. Assuming everything plays out in that exact scenario, the Angels would have to go 6-2 against the Rangers and Royals to take the division.

As I was writing this, I was hoping that the case for the Angels would be miserably bleak, but 6-2 against the Rangers and Royals is not so unreasonable. I guess I can take solace in this: the A's control their own destiny. If the A's play any better than 6-11 over their last seventeen games, they're pretty much in.

While I Was Away

I spent a week in Ireland, northwest of Galway, since my last post. That area around Lough Corrib is truly beautiful... and there are plenty of pubs. It was my second trip to the Emerald Isle, and both times have been very relaxing. The only downside is losing touch with the A's.

Fortunately the A's went 4-2, winning series in Toronto and Texas and extending their lead in the AL West to 6.5 games. Since then, the A's have gone only 5-3 and have given a game back to the Angels, who now trail the A's by 5.5 games. With 23 games left on the schedule, the A's magic number is 18.

Here's how the rest of the season looks for the A's:

3 gms at TB
3 gms at MIN
3 gms vs CWS
4 gms vs CLE
3 gms vs LAA (or ANA, if you're old school)
3 gms at SEA
4 gms at LAA

I would love to be further ahead, but I'm happy with where we are. We, er... the A's control their own destiny, and have a great shot at winning the division - hopeful the A's can clinch before that last 4-game trip to Anaheim. I'd like to save my angst and misery for the postseason...

Just for comparison sake, here's how the AL West looked at this time over the last couple years. Final result in parantheses:

2005: A's 0.5 games behind the Angels (Angels won the division by 7 games)
2004: A's 1.5 games ahead of the Angels (Angels won the division by 1 game)
2003: A's 2 games ahead of the Angels (A's won the division by 3 games)
2002: A's 2 games ahead of the Angels (A's won the division by 4 games)

(Old standings are available on ESPN's MLB Standings page - just change the date drop-downs)

Fantastic Chavez

Over at Catfish Stew, Ken Arneson is feeling pious: Praise Be for Eric Chavez, Deity of Fielding

Eric Chavez... is simply having the most astounding season of fielding I have ever had the pleasure to witness. Great fielding seasons don't get the kind of attention that having a bunch of walkoff hits like David Ortiz gets, but after last night's game, it's obvious to me the Chavez is having a season for the history books. This is defense of Ozzie Smith-Brooks Robinson-Bill Mazeroski's ilk, the kind of defense that deserves to be remembered for generations.

...

The latest jaw-dropper took place last night. With one out, runners on second and third, and Texas one run down, Chavez took a chopper near the bag, and quickly tagged out Mark DeRosa trying to return to third base. Now, I can't ever remember seeing a 5-unassisted at third base like that before, but Chavez didn't stop there. After tagging out DeRosa, he jumped over him into foul territory, planted his feet, and fired across the diamond to throw out the batter, Ian Kinsler. Double play, inning over.

I'd have to agree. He's been amazing at third base, but he's still not so hot at the plate. Here's another look at his OPS, this time by month:

Apr: 1.083
May: .770
Jun: .609
Jul: .614
Aug: .451 (to date)

The team is playing well, the defense is fantastic and the pitching has been good. But the A's need some offense from Chavez.

He only has two multi-hit games since June 16 and 5 RBIs over that same strech. We just need more.

Too Many Non-Readers

Marc's "Advice for Authors" post pointed me to Seth Godin's "Advice for Authors", which in turn pointed me to the following stats from Para Publishing:

<> 58% of the US adult population never reads another book after high school.

<> 42% of college graduates never read another book.

<> 80% of US families did not buy or read a book last year.

I find that terrifying. I have a wishlist on Amazon with over $1,000 worth of books I want to read. I have no storage in my Manhattan apartment, in part because every nook and cranny is filled with books, books, books. I spend my commute on the subway reading books. I'm going on vacation later this month, and I'm excited to have more time to read books.

Who are these people that don't read? What's wrong with them? (And are they asking the same thing about me?)

Motherload Victory!

Well, I destroyed my previous high score and bested Marc. That's 73.8 million in motherload. And with that, I'm announcing my permanent retirement from the game.