Andrew Koch

Vindication

2012-01-10T09:36:00.003-05:00

Way back in February '05, I posted twice about the baseball Hall of Fame.

Genetic Algorithms and the Baseball Hall of Fame lays out the research by my good friend David Cohen around the criteria for being elected to the HOF. (The link to his full research got broken in the move from MovableType to Blogger, and I'm too lazy to fix it. Sorry.)
Barry Larkin - Hall of Famer (to be) points out that Larkin meets the criteria and would be elected someday.

Yesterday, as is often the case, Cohen's conclusions were right. Barry Larkin has been elected to the Hall of Fame. Congratulations are due to Larkin... and Cohen.

The 6 Things I've Learned in My First 5 Days

2011-11-21T09:30:00.000-05:00

Lot18 really is a startup:

People are crammed into the office. I can reach out and touch five people without moving my desk chair.
Everyone is bleary-eyed and bushy-tailed, especially the Dev team, which just closed out a major relaunch of the site.
The people who have been with the company for four months are considered the veterans.
What was very recently a record-setting month for the company is now a good week.

But it's very different from any startup I've ever seen:

Every day at 5pm, people start drinking wine. Every day. (It took me until Friday to join in.)
There are NO water glasses in the office. Nearly everyone drinks their chilled, filtered water out of an enormous wine glass.

Announcing My New Gig

2011-11-21T09:25:00.000-05:00

I’m especially grateful this Thanksgiving. After five whirlwind years at TheLadders.com and an exhilarating year at Gilt City, I’ve just joined Lot18 as VP of Product. In case you’re not familiar with the company, Lot18 -- based here in NYC -- gives its members exclusive, limited-time opportunities to purchase directly from wineries, gourmet-food producers and other makers of artisanal goods. If you like good wine and delicious food, sign yourself up right now: http://www.lot18.com/i/aok

I’m tremendously excited to join the whip-smart team here. Lot18 is just a year old, but is already 90 people strong and has grown each month of its existence. The site experience is smooth, the customers are loyal and passionate, and the wineries are sharing their Lot18 success stories throughout the industry. Just before I started here, Lot18 announced a $30 million round of financing from top-tier VC firms Accel, NEA and FirstMark. All the signs point to a huge success in the making, and I’m thrilled to be a part of it.

One last note before I let you go: Lot18 launched a corporate-gifting program last week. There are some incredible wine (and gourmet food) packages available for your clients and employees. Check it out here: http://www.lot18.com/corporateaccess

Happy Thanksgiving!

Mediocre Pumpkin

2011-09-19T15:00:00.003-04:00

Since I started looking for my caffeine fix, I haven't tried the same thing twice. Today, I took the seasonal route.

Today's Effort: Pumpkin Spiced Latte

Verdict: Meh. Didn't taste like coffee, which is good. But it just wasn't that great. If I want pumpkin (pie) flavor in the future, I'll stick to the Chai Latte.

Old People: My neighborhood Starbucks was rocking out to the Beatles today, and everyone with gray hair was signing along. I'm holding out for AC/DC before I join in.

Yum

2011-09-18T14:10:00.002-04:00

It's a beautiful, crisp fall Sunday in NYC. After going caffeine free yesterday, I'm back at it today.

Today's Effort: White Chocolate Mocha from Starbucks

Verdict: Delicious. I'm definitely getting this one again.

Continuous Improvement: Started fall swimming lessons for my daughters today. So fun to swim with them. They love it.

Hot Coffee & Preschool

2011-09-16T09:27:00.005-04:00

Chilly morning today. After walking my daughter to her new preschool for the first time (her fourth day, our first walk together), I stopped off at Starbucks for a croissant and some warm caffeine.

Today's Effort: Cinnamon Dolce Latte.

Verdict: Good. Last couple sips were a little bitter, but I'd call it a success.

Morning Highlight: The walk to school was a joy. She skipped and ran the whole way before exploding into the classroom with her new friends, new teachers and Freddie the class turtle. I feel blessed.

Hustle & Grind

2011-09-15T16:08:00.003-04:00

If you're starting a new company, you've got a lot of hard work in front of you. But not all hard work is the same. You need to hustle and you need to grind.

Hustle

Hustling is meeting people, getting in front of potential partners, customers, users, journalists, co-founders, teammates, investors, advisors, industry experts, etc. You've got to be persistent, and you have to be selling, always. Hustle is Tristan Walker badgering Foursquare until they hired him... and then quickly closing a bunch of BD deals. Hustle is Alexa von Tobel dropping out of HBS to raise money for Learnvest and hitting the PR circuit. Hustle is Alexandra Wilkis Wilson signing brand after brand after brand for Gilt back in the early days, when it was a new idea no one had ever heard of.

Grind

Grinding is putting your head down and powering through work: coding, building excel models, putting together presentations, answering customer emails, wireframing, thinking through edge cases, writing copy, trafficking ads, assembling data, writing job descriptions, reviewing resumes from (and replying to) job applicants, hammering through all kinds of repetitive tasks that have to be done. Grinding is Michael Shafrir and my kickass community team at TheLadders finding and approving jobs for what felt like 100 hours a week back in '04. Grinding is Marc Cenedella reading all 160,000 customer service emails in our first three years at TheLadders. Grinding is much harder to see, and it's much less sexy. You don't hear about it as much, but that doesn't make it any less important.

You can only succeed when you have both. Hustle without grind means empty promises, and grind without hustle means a ghost town with a fresh coat of paint. The difficult thing is that I've only met a few people who are truly great at both aspects of hard work.

As you're starting your company and building a founding team, this is something you should think about. Who's going to hustle? And who's going to grind? Do you have enough of both?

Me? I'm a decent hustler, but I find it exhausting. On the other hand, getting into a good groove at the keyboard with my headphones on is energizing. When I get rolling, I'll forget to feed myself, and I'll find myself feverishly tapping away at 3am. I'm a grinder.

What are you?

Plain ol' Coffee

2011-09-15T15:59:00.003-04:00

Back to coffee after yesterday's tea.

Today's Effort: Regular hot coffee today with cream (or was it milk?) and sugar at L'Express this afternoon.

Verdict: Not bad. I finished my cup, and I didn't even resort to a second (or third) packet of sugar.

Neighborhood Note: Grabbed lunch at Terakawa Ramen before my coffee stop. It's a hole in the wall with shockingly bad service for a Japanese joint, but the ramen hits the spot.

Caffeine Search Continues

2011-09-14T13:25:00.002-04:00

Took a day off from coffee and tried tea this morning.

Today's Effort: Iced Chai from The Bean near Union Square.

Verdict: Tastes like pumpkin pie with whipped cream. I thought it was delicious at first, but I didn't end up finishing it.

Extra Crunch: The baby cockroach creeping up the wall as I sipped my tea concoction certainly didn't help anything.

Finding Coffee

2011-09-13T10:19:00.002-04:00

I've never been a coffee drinker. I used to only drink coffee in Europe and Asia, but I thought I could use a little more caffeine in my life. Coke wasn't doing it, and everyone seems to enjoy coffee. I thought I'd give it a shot.

Turns out I don't like the taste of coffee. I've been trying various coffee-ish drinks from Starbucks for the last couple weeks, trying to find something I enjoy.

Today's effort: Grande Iced Caffe Mocha

Verdict: Blech. I haven't been able to drink more than a third of it.

Silver Lining: Starbucks' glazed old fashioned donut isn't half bad, and it brings back memories of Colonial Donuts on Lakeshore Ave back home.

If you have a suggestion for a delicious high-caffeine drink I might enjoy, please leave me a comment.

Ghosts of Bubbles Past

2011-06-03T00:34:00.002-04:00

Brilliant, and timely:

To highlight this point, consider the absurd example of a Web-based company whose core service is to sell dollars for $0.85 each. This company could obviously achieve record visitors and page views at its Web Site. Revenue growth would easily set records, and it is quite conceivable that sales could reach into the billions within the first few quarters of operation. Apply even the most conservative Internet price-to-revenue multiple to this franchise and we are talking about a multi-billion dollar market cap.

...from 13 years ago. @bgurley via @cenedella

Notes on the Groupon S-1

2011-06-02T21:52:00.003-04:00

Full filing available from the SEC: http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1490281/000104746911005613/a2203913zs-1.htm

Couple notes:

Growth has been preposterously good.
Groupon spent $180mm on customer acquisition in Q1 '11 and grew by a net of 33mm subscribers. That's $5.45 per net subscriber.
Their margins are 42%, and not the 50% they so often claim. Now that their average take is public, will they still be able to talk people into giving them 50%?
Rob Solomon earned 6.8% of the company for about a year's work. What the hell kind of vesting schedule was that? Was he going to earn 25% of the company if he stuck around for a normal 4-year vesting schedule? Or was Groupon generous enough to vest 100% of his shares after only a year? Seems ludicrous.
I find it more than a little odd that they ignore their marketing expenses when determining CSOI - one of the three key metrics they watch.
More than half their revenue is from their International operations
"We also offered several national deals to generate revenue and increase brand awareness, which reduced our gross margin."
"We have focused the majority of our marketing spend online, particularly on social networking websites and search engines as part of our new subscriber acquisition strategy."
In an effort to find some negative numbers in the Groupon filing, I see the following: Percent of subscribers who have ever purchased is down 25% from Q1'10 to Q1'11; revenue per merchant is down 25%; Groupons sold per merchant are down 18%; average Groupon price is down 9% to $23.
In the last quarter, Groupon's net cash from operations was $18mm. The biggest factor there was "a $121.2 million increase in our merchant payables, due to the growth in the number of Groupons sold". Holy cash flow!
"For example, in December 2010, we partnered with Redbox to offer a daily deal to their user base and we acquired over 200,000 new customers through that offer and in March 2011, we partnered with eBay to offer a daily deal to their user base and we acquired over 290,000 new customers through that offer." Big deals!
7,000-person headcount includes 3,500 sales people, 410 "city planners", 925 editorial staff, 277 merchant services personnel, 825 customer service reps, 253 in Tech
"As of March 31, 2011, we had 1,724 employees in our North America segment, consisting of 811 corporate and operational staff, 661 sales representatives and 252 customer service representatives"
Groupon's new COO is making a killing. $500k base, $500k bonus, 1.1mm shares (300k of which vest immediately)

The following bullet is going to deserve its own section:

"The Q2 2010 cohort included 3.7 million subscribers that we initially spent $18.0 million in online marketing to acquire in the second quarter of 2010. In that quarter, we generated $29.8 million in revenue and $12.8 million in gross profit from the sale of approximately 1.2 million Groupons to these subscribers. Through March 31, 2011, we generated an aggregate of $145.3 million in revenue and $61.7 million in gross profit from the sale of approximately 6.3 million Groupons to the Q2 2010 cohort. In summary, we spent $18.0 million in online marketing expense to acquire subscribers in the Q2 2010 cohort and generated $61.7 million in gross profit from this group of subscribers over four quarters."
From the bullet above, we can extrapolate that it took about four months for Groupon to make their money back on a per-subscriber basis.
The average new member cost $4.86 and delivered $3.46 in gross profit during Q2'10, nearly paying off immediately. Over the next three quarters, that same group of people delivered an average gross profit of $4.41 per quarter for a total first year gross profit (ignoring acquisition cost) of $16.68.
Groupon members seem to be spending more the longer they're members. (Although the Q2 profit/member metric might look unduly low because of members who joined at the very end of Q2, leaving themselves little time to contribute to those Q2 profit numbers. Wouldn't it be helpful if Groupon shared the profit per member during the member's first 90 days - instead of the arbitrary Q2...?)

In summary, Groupon's S-1 filing is a fascinating document about a fascinating company. Lots to learn from in there...

Inbox Zero?

2010-12-18T00:12:00.001-05:00

I currently have 273 emails in my work inbox and 180 in my home inbox. I've got a lot of work to do to get back to zero, but I'm going to do so by 12/31/10.

What's a Groupon Really Worth?

2010-12-12T09:27:00.000-05:00

I spent a little time this last week looking at Groupon’s excellent GrouponWorks site. It’s the site they’ve built to help merchants understand how Groupon works. They also have a nice section about what merchants should do in preparation for their deal running on Groupon. The best part of that section is a 30 minute video: Merchant Preparation Webinar.

In the video, one of the points they make is that merchants should set the value of their Groupons so that customers will end up spending more in their first visit. The example they use is that restaurants should set the value of their Groupon at 1.5 times the price of an entrée. The assumption is that people won’t dine alone, and that they’ll immediately spend more.

Let’s dig into that a little more for a made-up restaurant that has $20 entrees. At that price point, Groupon would recommend a $30 Groupon that they’d sell for $15. For the customer, that looks great: 50% off. And for the restaurant, it doesn’t look so hot, because Groupon keeps 50% of the $15: The restaurant gets $7.50 when they’d normally get $30.

But remember, the customer is unlikely to actually spend just $30. That’s the whole point of setting the price. Let’s say you go to dinner with your friend and order an appetizer ($10), two entrees (2 x $20 = $40) and two drinks (2 x $7). At those prices, the total bill would be $64. The customer would redeem their Groupon for $30 and owe $34 out of pocket. Now, the customer has paid $15 + $34 = $49 to get a $64 dinner, a savings of 23%. The flip side is that the merchant is getting that $7.50 + $34 = $41.50 when they’d normally get $64 - a 35% haircut for them.

At those numbers, the customer is still getting a good deal, but it’s not even half of the 50% discount they were advertised. And the restaurant is only really discounting their prices by 35% - a far cry from the 75% discount they appeared to be giving away at first.

It gets to the heart of what Groupon is: a clever marketing trick. The trick is on the naïve customer who thinks they’re getting a 50% discount when they’re only getting 23% off – OR – the trick is on the merchant falling prey to savvy customers who spend only the exact value of the Groupon, forcing the merchant to give up 75% of their normal bill.

Swype Keyboard for Motorola Droid Stopped Working, Again - Incompatible with Android 2.1

2010-04-03T20:51:00.002-04:00

Just got Android 2.1 pushed to my phone this morning. I'm a fan of the Google voice integration, but the icon for that ha replaced my comma button, which is a little frustrating. I suppose the multi-touch pinch zoom in the browser is nice, by I've hardly used it.

The big problem is that Swype beta for the Droid doesn't support android 2.1. So, I'm back to pecking away on the crappy native keyboard. Ugh.

Swype, if you're listening... HELP!

UPDATE: I un-installed Swype and re-installed it using the SwypeInstall program. Looks like I'm back in business.

Swype Stopped Working on My Motorloa Droid

2010-03-09T15:11:00.003-05:00

As I mentioned on this blog a while back, I'm a big fan of the Swype Keyboard for the Motorola Droid. It simply makes the phone MUCH better, which is why I was so stunned when it stopped working Monday morning. I had been using a leaked version of the software, and it apparently expired on me.

I felt paralyzed. My phone felt nearly useless without the Swype keyboard, and I would have paid nearly anything to get it working again.

Fortunately, we haven't reached that point yet. I was able to go to Swype's website, register for their beta program and download/re-install it. I've noticed a few differences between the leaked version and the new beta version. Most notably, everything seems smoother and more polished. I didn't think I could like Swpye more than I already did, but I was wrong.

I love Swype more than ever, and I am prepared for the day when they ask me to pay for their product. My credit card (errr Google Checkout account) is ready for action.

UPDATE: Says Swype's site: "Due to overwhelming demand we have temporarily closed the beta."

Your First TV Commercial

2010-03-09T01:07:00.002-05:00

When you work at an internet startup, no one has ever heard of your company. Even your own parents don't really believe you when you tell them how great things are, how you're going to change the world.

"Sure, Andrew. I'm sure things are going great there. When are you getting a raise?"

Reaching millions of dollars in revenue doesn't convince your friends and family that you work for a real company. You're a private company. You can't show them public, audited financials. You can't point to a building and say, "We built that." It just isn't easy for people to understand what you're doing.

...until you run your first TV commercial.

When we launched our first commercial at TheLadders, it changed our world. Suddenly, total strangers had heard of us. I used to get blank stares from people when I told them where I worked, but then I started to get knowing nods. "TheLadders? Isn't that the company with the tennis commercial?" It was amazing. Instead of toiling away in anonymity, we were a REAL company.

Obviously, advertising has to make strategic and financial sense for a company, but you can't underestimate the morale boost for team members who see their company advertising on TV and finally get their parents to admit that they work for a real company.

Here are our three commercials:
Tennis
Godzilla
Chairs

Career Choice: VC or Entrepreneur?

2010-03-09T00:52:00.002-05:00

Business school graduation is only a few months away, and I hear many of my classmates expressing simultaneous interest in both venture capital and startup jobs. I've done a little of both (although my VC experience was limited to a summer internship this past year), and I found them wildly different experiences.

Mark Suster's blog post on Monday rang true for me: What's it Like Being a VC?

In particular, the things Mark misses about being an entrepreneur are exactly the reasons why I'm returning to the world of startups rather than pursuing a VC career:

(1) VCs sit on the sidelines
(2) VC has less team camaraderie

I want the good and the bad, the highs and the lows. I want to live and breathe the emotional roller coaster ride of a startup. I want to own the results. I want to build a company and a team to share the journey with.

Business school has been a fun break, but it's time to get back to work.

Disqus Installed

2010-02-22T19:15:00.002-05:00

At the suggestion of a commenter, I've finally bitten the bullet and switched over to Disqus for comments on AndrewKoch.com. It didn't take very long at all, about 20 minutes of distracted attention. The step-by-step instructions for installing disqus on blogger were perfect and easy to follow.

Job Seekers' Irrational Confidentiality Concerns

2010-02-21T22:19:00.008-05:00

As a veteran of the online employment world, I've long heard a concern from job seekers about confidentiality - They don't want their employer to know they're looking for a new job. The assumption (theirs and ours) was always that they risked being fired by their boss, but is it really worth worrying about?

The topic came up in an HBS case discussion about LinkedIn a couple weeks ago, in the context of LinkedIn's competitive advantage (in the employment space). The argument is that job seekers are safe to look for a job on LinkedIn without risking the wrath of their bosses because LinkedIn's networking can be explained away as "catching up with friends" or networking on behalf of your current employer to find new customers, partners, etc. Posting your resume on a more explictly career-focused website cannot be explained away so simply. Therefore, the "cover" that LinkedIn provides keeps job seekers safe from getting fired.

While there is certainly a perception that posting a resume is risky, I suggested in class that job seekers are more concerned about this than they should be. In my half-a-decade at TheLadders, we only saw a small handful of job seekers fired for looking for a new job. During that time, we helped millions of job seekers, so I'm pretty sure such firings are not common. (It's also possible that our confidentiality features kept job seekers safer than they might otherwise have been, but let's set that aside for this post.)

A VP from LinkedIn was sitting in on our class, and I discussed the issue more with him later. He pointed out that there are negative repercussions to getting caught by your boss, even if they don't fire you. You might be held back from a raise or a promotion or a new project as punishment for your disloyalty - or more likely, as a hedge against your possible departure.

I didn't think of it until later, but you may be just as likely to have positive ripples in the wake of getting caught. Instead of sneaking around as you look for a job, talking things over with your boss might help solve some of the problems that are pushing you out the door in the first place. Maybe the company will move up a postponed raise or promotion in order to keep you. Maybe your complaints about that overbearing teammate will finally be addressed.

I don't think you can categorically claim (as did the LinkedIn VP) that getting caught looking for a job by your manager is a bad thing.

A new twist on this problem, however, is a bit trickier. Our LinkedIn guest came to the conclusion that getting caught by your direct reports was even worse than getting caught by your boss. You can't be an effective leader if your team thinks you've got one foot out the door. How can you possibly get them motivated to take the next hill if they don't think you believe enough in the company vision to stick around?

Getting caught looking for a job by your subordinates is absolutely a problem, but as I've reflected on it over the last week or so, I don't think it's worth worrying about. Think about the scenario that would have to be true in order for your resume posted on TheLadders or Monster or HotJobs to be discovered by your team:

(1) Your team would have to be hiring
(2) ...doing the online resume searches themselves, rather than outsourcing it to your in-house recruiting function or an external recruiter
(3) ...and searching broadly enough that your resume is coming up when they're searching for people two levels below you. (If you're a VP and your Director is hiring a Manager or individual contributor, that's 2-3 levels lower.)

Based on that collection of events, I just don't think it's likely that subordinates are going to stumble across their manager's resume posted to an online job board/career site.

Wrapping things up here, I believe that job seekers' desire for confidentiality in their online job search is irrational. But the argument is academic. The fact that job seekers are worried about confidentiality means that people like TheLadders and Monster have to worry about it, and someone like LinkedIn can take advantage of it.

History of Job Search

2010-02-12T00:47:00.002-05:00

I've worked in the online employment space since June of 1999, and I've worked with Marc Cenedella since June of 2000. As a result, I might be uniquely positioned to appreciate Marc's series of blog posts about the history of the job search. Setting aside that caveat, you should read the series. It's a fascinating look at how people have found work over time - and what the problems are today.

If you're in HR, recruiting, online employment... or might ever need to look for a job... you should give it a look. (My classmates from Richard Tedlow's Coming of Managerial Capitalism might also find it especially interesting.)

Here are his posts in the series to date:
-History of Job Search, an introduction to the series
-Prologue
-Before Jobs
-The Industrial Revolution
-Newspapers
-20th Century
-When I Grow Up I Want To Have A Brown Nose
-The 20th Century Model Breaks
-Job-seekers in 2010

Cash Rewards

2010-02-04T14:17:00.006-05:00

I was recently reading up on Customer Development and came across a recent post on Steve Blank's blog about Incentives and Legends. It reminded me of our journey at TheLadders.

We loved a good party, so we celebrated every time we crossed a $100k/wk milestone ($100k in cash collected for the week, $200k, etc). Our first such party was a black-tie affair in January 2005 at the Rainbow Room atop Rockefeller Center (during a blizzard).

The most memorable celebration might have been the one for crossing $500k in the spring of 2007. The full company gathered in the office around 4pm, and everyone was handed an envelope from their manager. When Marc (Founder & CEO) gave the word, each person opened their envelope and found five crisp $100 bills inside. Of course, it was great to get $500 in cash, but it was just as rewarding to watch other people open their envelopes.

The one hundred faces simultaneously racing from confusion to shock, amazement, excitement and pure glee were a sight to behold. As the music cranked and the bubbly flowed, a steady parade of people came to shake Marc's hand and thank him.

Everyone at TheLadders that day will remember that celebration, yet no one remembers the day when their quarterly bonus was direct-deposited into their account... which is a long way of saying that I couldn't agree more with Steve's lessons learned:

-Cash has a much greater affect than a check.
-Done correctly it turns incentives into legends.

Swype Keyboard for Motorola Droid

2010-01-29T19:37:00.005-05:00

just installed swype on my phone. im typing this post from my motorola droid and it is amazingly faster than typing on the native droid keyboard. The only downside is... well, I cant think of a downside.

On second thought, here are four:
1. swype has trouble with contractions. cant wont and ill, for example.
2. swype doesn't auto-capitalize the first letter of a sentence.
3. tough to type words like pull, gal, pass.
4. might just be this instance but I have no idea where my cursor is

overall, this keyboard seems to be a major improvement over the pre-installed droid keyboard functionality.

UPDATE
1. A few minutes with the Swype tutorial and I've figured out contractions. Just swype the apostrophe as if it were a letter, generally.
2. Tutorial has also taught me how to (easily) capitalize any letter, by moving my finger up above the keyboard before the next letter.
3. A little loop-the-loop on top of the 'L' key tells Swype that you want two L's at the end of "gall"
4. The cursor problem seems to occur on some web forms. Generally, however, the cursor is easy to see and move - much easier than the native Droid system.

The Swype keyboard is fantastic, and I can't believe it's not standard on the phone. If you have a Motorola Droid, get the Swype keyboard. (A friend emailed me the file, but I think you can download it from DroidMuff.in as well.)

Switching to Google

2010-01-29T10:31:00.005-05:00

In the last couple of months, I've made the following transitions:

MovableType to Blogger
Total success. MovableType was a pain in the ass and overkill in terms of features. Blogger allows me to do what I need fairly easily, which is just get stuff published online.

Firefox to Chrome
Mixed bag. I like the UI for Chrome, but it doesn't really seem like it's any faster than Firefox. I know others have complained about extensions/plugins, but as someone that never really got into FF extensions, it's no big deal. And it seems like that gap is closing.

Blackberry to Droid
Another mixed bag. I've spent the last two years in business school, so I haven't been using my phone for a whole lot of serious emailing. My data usage was almost entirely surfing the internet while I waited in line somewhere or catching up on my blog reading while my little girls were playing. The Droid is a much better phone for that type of "internetting," but it isn't as easy to use when I'm forced to write the occasional email that's longer than a sentence or two. I've also been a little disappointed with the battery life. I generally charge my phone each night, but I don't always remember. The Blackberry could absolutely survive a two-day jag before recharging. The Droid, however, cannot survive an every-other-night recharging schedule. It's only a minor complaint, but a complaint nonetheless.

One last comment on the Droid. Coming from an older BB curve, the Android Market (ie App Store) is an amazing improvement. It's fantastic to be able to download a stopwatch app or a new game. But in general, the apps seem like the kind of shareware crap you'd find on the windows platform 15 years ago: Crappy UI and marginal utility. I suppose it's early in the game, but this is one area where I envy iPhone owners. From what I've seen, the Apps approved by Apple tend to be much more polished.

Bloglines to Google Reader
Total Success. I started using bloglines to track my blogs back in 2005 or so. It was a big improvement over pulling RSS feeds into My Yahoo because the emphasis was on keeping things marked as "unread" until I had read them. In the last 18 months or so, they made a further improvement in their Beta product to mark things as read as you scrolled past them (rather than marking all articles as "read" as soon as you clicked into that blog). The downside for Bloglines was that they never moved that product out of beta, and they never ported that functionality over to their mobile site. Google Reader has been a big improvement, if only for their mobile version, which behaves almost exactly how I want it to.

And who doesn't love a little data? I get a kick out of these little charts they give you:

This particular chart shows that most of my blog-reading (orange bars) has been in the morning right after I've woken up, during the girls' naptime and after the girls have gone to bed. It doesn't get much cooler than that for a data nerd like me.

Switching to Google
On the whole, I'm pretty happy with my new-ish Google products, but I hope they continue to improve and innovate. They're not all the way there yet.

Japan-US World Series?

2010-01-07T12:57:00.002-05:00

BaseballMusings reports that there might be a playoff between the World Series champion and the champion of the Japanese professional league as soon as 2012. Sounds interesting. Count me in.

Home Sweet Home

2010-01-07T12:50:00.003-05:00

This blog can now be accessed from AndrewKoch.com, and we're totally back in business. Next steps for this blog are now:

1. Set up Disqus for comments, as I've wanted to do for about 12 months.
2. Improve look/feel, or at least explore other designs.
3. Customize functionality/widgets around the perimeter of the main content.
4. Start writing.

UPDATED:
5. Figure out traffic tracking options.

Export from MovableType and Import to Blogger

2010-01-07T10:59:00.000-05:00

In my last post, I said "There doesn't seem an easy MT-to-Blogger port..."

Turns out, I hadn't looked very hard. With a quick Google search, I found the perfect MovableType to Blogger conversion tool. It couldn't have been easier, and now I've got all my old MT posts re-posted here.

Next step... Getting this blog moved from its current location to its rightful home at AndrewKoch.com

A Return to Blogging

2010-01-07T10:05:00.000-05:00

I first started blogging on AndrewKoch.com in November of 2003, using MovableType installed on a friend's server. I was fairly active through 2004, but then my postings became sporadic as TheLadders became more and more consuming. My last real post was over a year ago, bidding farewell to 2008. Over the years, my blog has bounced around from server to server, somehow getting bundled up with a few other blogs on servers inside TheLadders.

My blog was something of a relic, however, and didn't tranistion well as TLC (our internal shorthand for TheLadders) upgraded through various versions of MT. In the last week, I've tried to revive my blog, but MovableType just isn't working for me. I can't edit my templates, change my css, add posts or do just about anything. It's time to move on.

Today, I'm calling it quits on MovableType and moving over to Blogger. Today, this blog resides at http://aokoch.blogspot.com, but I'll hopefully be moving it back over to AndrewKoch.com in the near future. I'm also hoping to import my old blog postings into Blogger, but I'm not terribly optimistic. There doesn't seem an easy MT-to-Blogger port, but I'll give it a shot.

So, welcome to yet another new Andrew Koch blog.

Happy New Year, and Farewell 2008 - You are a Tough Act to Follow

2008-12-31T15:14:00.000-05:00

I realize that 2008 was a pretty crappy year for a lot of people, but for me, it was darn good. The highlights include the birth of my first child (a beautiful, happy daughter), getting into a handful of top business schools, moving to Boston, starting at HBS and making a ton of great new friends. And my old company is doing pretty well, even in this tough economic environment. I've been very lucky in 2008, and I hope 2009 will be just as good.

Happy New Year.

(Reposted from my new blog over at Tumblr)

Something Sinister?

2008-08-24T20:50:00.000-04:00

On Thursday, David Pinto suggested that "...something sinister is going on in Oakland." I'm having a tough time seeing that. What does he think is going on? I suppose he's insinuating that the A's are intentionally putting players on the DL to make the team worse - and improve the team's draft position for the 2009 MLB draft. I guess I don't get it.

Maybe the complaint is that A's fans are getting a raw deal? That they're supporting a team that doesn't want to win? That doesn't jive with me. A's fans have already written this year off, so losing a few more games isn't going to be that painful to us. And the upside (better draft position) would be nice. As for attendance, it's been pretty crappy all season. Losing a few more games down the stretch isn't going to make the problem much worse - and the A's ownership isn't going to feel that much more pain in the wallet.

Maybe the complaint is that the A's alleged Operation Shutdown will have some major impact on the playoff races...? The problem with that argument is that the A's have 32 games left, and only four against a team (the Twins) that's still in any kind of a playoff race. Games against the Angels, Tigers, Royals, Orioles, Rangers and Mariners are essentially meaningless at this point, so how incensed can we really be? The A's can't affect the playoff races in any meaningful way.

I don't think there's anything sinister going on in Oakland, and even if the A's were conspiring to lose games, I wouldn't be terribly offended. Tanking one season to make the next year better worked out pretty well for the Celtics, didn't it?

Canon Powershot SD600 Lens Error

2008-08-18T19:01:00.000-04:00

Normally, I'm a pretty prolific picture-taker. Last year, I spent a week in Japan and came home with about a thousand pictures. So, you can imagine my frustration when my camera crapped out this summer. I have the Canon Powershot SD600, and it shut down with the lens extended as I was about to snap my 18th straight "art shot" in the hills surrounding Cloverdale, CA. I tried powering the camera back on, only to get an error message: "lens error, restart camera." Sadly, there is no way to restart the camera. A quick search gave my this suggestion:

all u gotta do it turn on the camera n quickly try knock the lens back in the camera while it is on....dunt break the lens ....so dont knock it to hard. -MAMA

Brilliant in its simplicity, but ineffective. I pretty much wrote the camera off, sure that the error was fatal. But, being the cheap bastard that I am, I held onto the camera, hoping against hope that I could find some other solution.

Well, tonight the heavens opened up, and more diligent internetting provided another option: Total disassembly. I cracked the camera open like a salty oyster, spun some gears, slapped it back together and... voila! I have a working camera again, and it only cost me $3 for the precision screwdriver set I should have had all along.

While I don't generally post any of my pictures to this site, I'm sure the one person reading this post (my dad) will be happy to know that he can expect more pictures flowing into his inbox in the near future. Three cheers for the internet, solver of all life's problems!

Detroit Home on Sale for $1

2008-08-17T19:43:00.000-04:00

There was (is?) a house for sale in Detroit, asking price... $1.00. Story here. (h/t Kedrosky)

It's highly unlikely that the original residents made $100k+, but you can see the bigger picture in TheLadders.com's Executive Job Market Trends. Check out the Regional Employment Interest. Detroit's score of 18 is horrible, and it means that everyone in the Detroit area is interested in jobs *outside* of Detroit while no one outside of Detroit is interested in working there. It's not a pretty situation.

Another Week Closer to 2009

2008-08-17T19:37:00.000-04:00

As the 2008 season grinds toward it's merciful end, the A's had another poor week, going 2-4 against the Rays and White Sox. Sure, there were a couple bright spots, but there were too many low points.

Three blog posts caught my eye this week:

(1) F's for the A's from BaseballMusings.

I'm a big a fan of Billy Beane as anyone, but he screwed up this year... He tore the heart out of the pitching staff, and the result is a team that obviously no longer cares and no longer even tries to win. The Athletics... trot out a lineup that can't get on base, can't hit for power, and can't score runs. It's a joke and an embarrassment... The A's may have a plan, but it's getting harder to see. Maybe keeping Haren and Harden and drafting players who can actually hit would have been a better strategy.

I agree with Pinto's observation that the team stinks and that they've essentially quit on the 2008 season. It's probably also true that Beane screwed up the 2008 season, but I'm not too bothered by it. We knew this was going to be a rebuilding year, and the A's have done a tremendous job stockpiling young talent. The ceiling for this year's squad just wasn't that high, and it would have been a bigger mistake to have sold prospects in order to make a run this year. I'm still willing to give Beane the benefit of the doubt.

(2) Gettin' Ziggy With It (Season 2, Vol. 6) on AthleticsNation

I want to take a quick second to thank everyone for the support I received as I approached and eventually surpassed the Major League record for consecutive scoreless innings to start a career. I honestly didn’t think the record would be that big of a deal…it’s such an obscure record, and it had been held for so long that I honestly didn’t know that it was something that would be kept track of... I got a lot more attention with it than I anticipated, and that really surprised me. My teammates have been very supportive, which has been really nice, since they’re the main reason the streak exists in the first place. It’s obvious I’m not a strikeout pitcher, so I rely on my defense so heavily night-in and night-out. And, from what I can recall, I think we’ve made 1 error in my 34 innings so far. And at any point, if there had been an unearned run that scored, the streak would’ve been over. But they keep making the plays, so I keep doing my best to get groundballs.

Ziegler seems like a pretty good, down-to-earth guy. He's easy to root for.

(3) Ziegler (Director's Cut) from Joe Posnanski. (h/t to Gregg)

Recaps Ziggy's journey: He's had his skull fractured twice, was released by the Phillies, played independent league ball, etc. Basically, he's Seabiscuit crossed with Cinderella Man, minus the Depression. In short, his is a a good tale to tell.

Is it 2009 yet?

2008-08-06T20:21:00.000-04:00

Over on AthleticsNation: "I've lost the will to cheer". I'm pretty much there myself. I'm ready for the 2008 baseball season to be over. It's hard to believe the A's were only 6 games back a month ago and had the fourth best run differential in the AL. Since then, the A's have been craptastic. They've been outscored by 43 runs in the last month and are now 17.5 games behind the Angels.

By the way, my sister got me a great little thing from Brookstone this past Hanukah. It's called the Sportscast. It sits on my desk and reminds me every day that this year is a lost cause. It currently tells me that the A's have lost nine straight games to fall to 53-60. Of course, you can get this information anywhere, but the benefit here is that it's always on... always taunting me. Argh!

A's Playoff Odds (July 28)

2008-07-28T20:00:00.000-04:00

Last week, the A's became even less likely to make the postseason, down 12% to only 9%. That is not good, folks. On the bright side, I decided that Carlos Gonzalez is my new favorite A's player. It seems like every time I watch him at bat, he gets a double. I've decided that I'm sticking with him, and I'm going to start watching him at bat more often. I must be some kind of good luck charm if he's getting all these doubles.

In fact, I'm going to Saturday's game against the Red Sox at Fenway, and I think our seats are near the A's dugout. I'll be sure to let Carlos know that I'm pulling for him.

Because the A's are pretty much officially out of the playoff hunt, I've decided to start taking a weekly look at our best performers. The average OPS in the AL is about .750, so I'll tip my hat this week to the five A's exceeding that threshold this past week (along with their OBP/SLG)::

(1) Jack Hannahan (.474/.778)
(2) Kurt Suzuki (.480/.652)
(3) Carlos Gonzalez (.480/.500)
(4) Jack Cust (.381/.438)
(5) Emil Brown (.235/.533)

Data via Baseball Musings.

Yahoo Features Piedmont A-11 Offense on Homepage

2008-07-24T22:35:00.000-04:00

So back in November, I posted about the Piedmont A-11 Offense and this evening, Yahoo featured it on their homepage under the headline, "The Offense of the Future?"

That's some great promotion, and it's having an indirect impact on this website. As of this writing, 18 of the last 20 visits to AndrewKoch.com have come from a search involving the A-11 offense. Very interesting. For those of you who haven't gotten the memo yet, the Yahoo homepage can drive some serious traffic.

A's Playoff Odds (July 21)

2008-07-21T19:59:00.000-04:00

Well, that was a short and brutal week. After a long and entertaining All Star break, the A's were swept by the Yankees and the Angels swept the Red Sox. The end result was not pretty. Through Sunday, the A's had only a 21% chance of making the postseason (details here), down 19% in the last week. The Angels, of course, are now 19% more likely to make the postseason -- they're at 84%.

Ugh. I had been hoping that the A's could somehow stay in the hunt long enough to make it interesting and that the team could continue over-achieving while the Angels squandered their talent advantage. But that's looking more and more unlikely each week. After this last week's action, I think we can safely commit to this being just a rebuilding year and nothing else. That's what we should have been expecting all along, but it's disappointing all the same.

Of course, the punchless A's lost again tonight 4-0 to Scott Kazmir and the TB Rays. In their four games since the All-Star break, the A's have now scored a grand total of five runs. That's a recipe for losses - and the A's have certainly delivered. Fortunately, I suppose, I'm heading back to the east coast this weekend, where televised A's games a rarity. It's much easier to endure a rebuilding year when you don't have to suffer through the games live.

Blanton to Phildelphia

2008-07-17T22:51:00.000-04:00

Comment #11 on Catfish Stew's post, Blanton Traded to Phillies for 3 Prospects:

"I, for one, welcome our new prospects and wish them good luck until they are inevitably flipped for more prospects."

That pretty much hits the nail on the head. It's tough to root for this team sometimes.

First A's Game of the Year

2008-07-14T22:16:00.000-04:00

As I mentioned in an earlier post, I hadn't even seen the A's play a single game this year. Well, that's no more. I joined a crew of people from AthleticsNation for a tailgate and this past Saturday's A's-Angels game. Good company and good weather were not enough, however, as the A's fell 4-1. I guess what I took away from the game was a sense that I don't know these A's at all. They're a whole lot of AAAA players right now, and no one in the lineup inspires a whole lot of confidence or optimism. When the team falls behind early, as they did in Saturday's game, it's tough to feel like they're going to come back. They just don't have the power.

Makes one pine for the heady days of 2000, when the A's slugged .458 as a team, higher than Jack Cust's team-leading .442 SLG so far this year.

Selling Harden

2008-07-14T21:42:00.000-04:00

Some coverage from my reading list:

BaseballMusings' Harden a Cub: Confused, but thinks "It looks like a great move for both clubs."

BaseballMusings' The Oakland View: "I don't think this trade takes the A's out of the race, but it doesn't make them a better contender, either."

BaseballCrank's Rich Harden to the Cubs: "I guess [the Cubs] were feeling nostalgic for the Mark Prior Era."

AthleticsNation's Nico's Official Spin On The Trade: "I do think the trade will wind up as a good one for Oakland"

CatfishStew's Harden and Gaudin Traded to Cubs: "They traded two flawed players, and got back four flawed players, none of whom are very easy to muster up any child-like giddiness about. Emotionally, this one really hurts."

CatfishStew's That's a Load of Beane: "[T]he A's are saving quite a bit of money in this trade over the next year and a half... if you think of the deal as including Inoa plus an extra year or two of Mark Ellis, the trade looks a lot better, doesn't it?"

Overall, some mixed feelings in there. Some folks are absorbing the reality of a rebuilding year, while others already miss the "child-like giddiness" Harden inspired when he was on. But I don't see much gnashing of teeth or rending of garments. A's fans and baseball fans seem to be giving Beane the benefit of the doubt here, while admitting that there is quite a bit of doubt. I guess we'll just have to stay tuned...

Is this latest haul of new players more like Barton/Haren/Calero or Danny Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas? And is Harden going to end up more like Mulder or Hudson in his post-Oakland career? I guess that's what makes this deal so typical of Billy Beane lately - he's taking a risk to improve the future while making sacrifices in the here and now. It's tough to be a fan of a team that is pushing back the window of opportunity. It's much easier for fans to get excited about someone going all-in, pushing their chips into the center of the table and seeing what happens immediately. When will Beane make that move? Or will he never make a move that bold because failure (should it come) will be so apparent and so quick that he could be out of a job?

A's Playoff Odds (July 14)

2008-07-14T19:59:00.000-04:00

In the last week, the A's chances of reaching the postseason dropped another 4% to 40%, according to BaseballProspectus. The A's won their four-game series with the Mariners 3-1 before losing their Angels series 2-1. While the A's were going 4-3, the Angels went 4-3 and increased their postseason odds to 65%. Just think, if Huston Street could have closed out the Sunday game, the tables would have been turned, and the A's would probably have closed the "odds" gap on the Angels.

All season long, the Angels have been recognized as the better team, but it's only been in the last four weeks or so that they've started showing it. The beginnings of that separation might have helped Billy Beane make the decision to sell...

So, selling. Let's cover that in another post.

Tidbits from Baseball Musings

2008-07-07T18:32:00.000-04:00

I use Bloglines to read everything David Pinto writes over at Baseball Musings. Two of his posts on the A's last week caught my eye.

(1) Wolff on the Angels -- I disagree with Lew Wolff. I dislike everything about the Angels, starting with local color man Rex Hudler.

(2) Organizations Matter -- Nice to see the A's more involved in the international scouting market. And even better to see them recruiting effectively. Losing the bidding battle yet winning the war seems like a nice "moneyball" approach.

A's Playoff Odds (July 7)

2008-07-07T18:28:00.000-04:00

So, last Monday the A's had a 50% chance of making the playoffs and had big series coming up against division leaders Angels and White Sox. How'd the A's do?

W 6-1 @ LAA
L 3-5 @ LAA
L 4-7 @ LAA
W 3-2 @ CWS
W 7-1 @ CWS
L 1-6 @ CWS
L 3-4 @ CWS

Going 3-4 against division leaders isn't horrible, but it's not going to help you make up any ground, especially while the Angels are going 4-2. In fact, Baseball Prospectus' Postseason Odds say the A's are 6% less likely to make the postseason now (44%) than they were a week ago (50%). The entire difference there is essentially transferred to the Angels, who are now a 57% bet to make the playoffs. It's a bit early to say that things are slipping away from the A's, but BP is liking their chances less and less each week.

The A's need to start turning this around. The Angels have four games at Texas before coming to Oakland this weekend for a three-game set. Hopefully Josh Hamliton and the Texas heat can wear down the Angel pitchers before they head north for the last pre-All Star series. Meanwhile, the A's have four games at home against the Mariners. These *should* be winnable games, and with some luck, this is the week the A's take a step in the right direction.

(Of course as I'm writing this, Richie Sexson hits a three-run HR off Eveland in the top of the first inning of tonight's game. Ugh.)

Asking for Input?

2008-07-07T18:07:00.000-04:00

Paul DePodesta's asking Padres fans what they would do as GM: Buy, Sell or Stand Pat. The majority of the comments are saying: "sell."

Will DePodesta and the front office listen? Were they planning on selling anyway?

Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds think the Padres should sell too. They're giving the Padres only an 0.36% chance of making the playoffs. It's probably time for the Padres to sell.

A's Playoff Odds (June 30)

2008-06-30T19:28:00.000-04:00

As of this morning, Baseball Prospectus has the A's at a 50.3% chance of making the postseason in the Playoff Odds. That's down about 6% in the last week while the Angels are down about 2%. How can the top two teams in the division both be down? Either someone else in the division had a good week or it became increasingly unlikely that the AL Wildcard will come from the West. Glancing across the league, it's hard to tell exactly what happened. The big gainers were the Rays (up nearly 13%) and the White Sox (up 6%), which perhaps suggests that the last week's games made the A's and Angels each less likely to win the Wildcard.

Of course, this is all mostly useless. What really matters is the games on the field. And as of this moment, the A's are beating the Angels 2-1 in the top of the sixth. This week's games should tell us a lot about the A's chances. They've got three games at LAnaheim and then four at the White Sox. That's seven straight games against division leaders.

Let's Go A's!

Andrew Koch, Spokesman?

2008-06-23T14:35:00.000-04:00

My first "media appearance" back in mid-March came in a Modesto Bee article about finding a job during slow economic times. Today, I made my second appearance - this time in Crain's New York Business: High-tech firms a local bright spot

The process is interesting. In both cases, I've spoken with the reporter for about 15-20 minutes, and they've ended up using just a sentence or two of what I said. I suppose that's how they do their job, but it's not quite how I think. If I'm going to do more interviews in the future (and I would like to), I may have to think more about the reporter's perspective. Being quotable or un-quotable (intentionally or otherwise) can certainly impact how you come across, regardless of the newspaper, the topic or your best intentions.

Oakland A's Postseason Odds (June 23)

2008-06-23T14:16:00.000-04:00

Baseball Prospectus maintains three different sets of Postseason Odds. The methodologies are slightly different, but the output always answers the same questionWhat are the chances that a particular team will win it's division or the wildcard?

The three sets of data:

(1) Standard Version (based on teams' current winning percentage and their remaining schedule)
(2) PECOTA Adjusted (like the standard version but adjusted for beginning-of-the-year winning % projection)
(3) ELO Version (based on the ELO methodology)

What do they say about the A's chances?
(1) 56% chance of making the postseason (down 11% in the last seven days)
(2) 52% chance of making the postseason
(3) 37% chance of making the postseason

In each of those cases, the A's best bet is winning the division. (All three systems expect the AL Wildcard to come out of the East: TB/BOS/NYY) So, what do we think about a roughly 50% chance at the postseason? I feel pretty good about it.

If you told any A's fan at the beginning of the season that the A's would have a 50-50 shot at the postseason when June 23rd rolled, they would have taken that in a second. It's been said before over and over again, and hopefully we'll have occasion to continue repeating it much later in the season - The A's are far exceeding our expectations in this so-called rebuilding year.

Congrats to Cousin Paul

2008-06-18T11:51:00.000-04:00

My cousin's wedding was covered by the LA Times, which is kind of cool. Even cooler, he and his now husband were finally able to get married in California.

Article: A gay couple's countdown to marriage (The article is kind of confusing because it's written like a live blog. You have to start at the end and read it backwards, I think.)
Pics: Couple prepares for big day (My favorite is #16)

To be honest, I'm not even entirely sure how we're related. I think his mom and my grandmother are first cousins. If I've remembered that correctly, he would be my second cousin once removed, right? However we're related, I'm so happy for him. Congrats Paul!

A's Update

2008-06-16T04:04:00.000-04:00

To start off with, I have a confession to make. I haven't seen a single A's game all season. I haven't been to a game, watched one on TV or caught one on MLB.tv. This is the first time in a few years that I haven't gotten the MLB Extra Innings package, and without that, it's awful tough to get A's games in New York. I think that lack of exposure has really cut down on my A's blogging.

With that said, I'd like to take a look at what I've been missing by poking around in Win Shares. Through 6/5, the A's had won 33 games (standings available on ESPN.com). By definition, the A's then have 99 win shares to distribute amongst themsleves. Here's how it breaks down:

Batting - 45 win shares (46%)
Pitching - 39 (39%)
Defense - 15 (15%)

For the sake of comparison, here's what the Angels look like for that same time period:

Batting - 47 (43%)
Pitching - 44 (40%)
Defense - 20 (18%)

What does that tell us? Well, it means that the Angel's and the A's have been about even offensively, but that the Angels are getting more from their pitching and defense. At first blush, that's a bit of a surprise. I've felt like Billy Beane has built this A's team lately on pitching and defense, while the Angels have suffered from early-season injuries to John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, two of their top pitchers. Let's dig a little deeper, looking at how players who have played compared to a "baseline", given their playing time.

As teams, the A's are 36 win shares above baseline, while the Angels are 51 shares above baseline. That roughly accounts for the 3.5 game differential in the standings. Here's how it looks at an individual level:

Biggest Outliers (Win Shares Above Baseline - Oakland)
-Justin Duchscherer and Jack Cust have 4 WSAB
-Frank Thomas and Rich Harden have 3 WSAB
-Donnie Murphy, Rajai Davis, Travis Buck, Lenny Dinardo and Fernando Hernandez each have (-1) WSAB

Biggest Outliers (Win Shares Above Baseline - Anaheim/LA)
-Joe Saunders has 8 WSAB
-Ervin Santana has 7 WSAB
-Casey Kotchman, Torii Hunter and Chone Figgins each have 5 WSAB
-Juan Rivera, Chris Bootcheck and Dustin Mosely have (-2) and Brandon Wood has (-3) WSAB

The Angels have gotten great, unexpected performances from some young pitchers, while the A's have gotten merely good performances from those expected to do so. And for the A's to make up the (still) 3.5 game margin they face on June 16th, they'll need continued healthy performances from Harden, Thomas and Eric Chavez (who is off to a good start back from the DL). And they need the Angels to not improve, a risky bet -- Vlad Guerero has contributed about as much as you'd expect from a replacement player, and John Lackey has only started six games (compared to 14 for the Angels' other starters). With just those two players, the Angels have a lot of upside. The A's have an uphill battle ahead of them.

Billy Beane on Athletics Nation

2008-06-02T09:57:00.000-04:00

Billy Beane Visits Athletics Nation:
-Part I
-Part II
-Part III

I always get a kick out of these. They're definitely worth flipping through.

Ken Griffey Jr, Trickster

2008-05-16T11:47:00.000-04:00

"Reds outfielder Ken Griffey Jr owed teammate Josh Fogg $1500 -- I'm guessing Fogg sold him a tendon -- so Junior paid him back in pennies."

KEN GRIFFEY JUNIOR IS, LIKE, TWELVE - With Leather

Brilliant!

Gladwell on Inventions

2008-05-16T11:41:00.000-04:00

At dinner last night, my wife's second cousin's husband mentioned a Malcolm Gladwell article in the latest issue of the New Yorker. It's an interesting read about genius, invention and the creative process.

Annals of Innovation: In the Air

Dave Carvajal, Blogger

2008-05-15T05:52:00.000-04:00

I'd like to extend a hearty "welcome" to long-time colleague and start-up blogger Dave Carvajal. His first post on In the Arena includes one of my favorite quotes: It is not the critic who counts...

Dave was a co-founder at HotJobs and hired me as a summer intern in June of 1999. We've been working together since, and I can attest to Dave's greatness. He is a fantastic judge of people and talent, and his infectious energy has helped both HotJobs and TheLadders grow into the companies they are today. Best of luck on the blog, Dave!

Good Advice for College Students

2008-05-14T05:54:00.000-04:00

Good advice from Charlie O'Donnell over at Path 101: 10 Things Every New College Graduate Should Do to Find a Job

The one thing I would add is that you shouldn't wait until the end of your senior year to start doing the things he suggests. You should start doing this towards the end of each year of college, so that you can get summer internships as well. Whether summer internships turn into full-time employment after school or not, they can be a fantastic way to learn what you like and don't like about different types of jobs.

I worked at HotJobs in the summers of '99 and '00 before joining full time in the fall of 2001. Those small summer tastes of internet startup whetted my appetite - and here I am nine years later, proudly looking back on four and a half years of startup success at TheLadders.com.

So, new college grads - and college students of all ages - take heed of Charlie's advice.

Hilarious

2008-05-12T10:52:00.000-04:00

YouTube - HARDBALL MADE EASY-Taking 1 For The Team (w/Carlos Zambrano)

h/t Paul DePodesta (!)

I'm Not Alone

2008-05-09T09:57:00.000-04:00

"Dear Billy: You've done it again. Turned the A's into winners. Sure it's only May, but every month counts. Congratulations. Just one more thing. Sign Barry Bonds." -Art Spander

Thomas + Bonds?

2008-05-08T09:26:00.000-04:00

"No, what I'm rooting for is the unconventional, a general manager who doesn't give a hoot about disapproving scrutiny as long as Bonds can help his team win." -Childs Walker, Baltimore Sun (h/t BaseballMusings)

I know the A's have Frank Thomas back on board as DH, but couldn't we find a spot for Barry Bonds too? Imagine Bonds, Thomas and Jack Cust playing in a round-robin platoon of sorts for LF/DH:

- Bonds in LF, Thomas at DH
- Cust in LF, Thomas at DH
- Cust in LF, Bonds at DH

Surely Bonds could be signed today to a small base, big incentive contract. When your agent is accusing baseball of colluding against you, you're getting desperate - and desperate baseball players will sign cheaper contracts, right? We know Barry can still hit, and while he's a liability in LF, it's not like Jack Cust is in danger of winning a Gold Glove out there either. And under my plan, Bonds is only in LF twice a week. That's not so bad, is it?

Just as a reminder, the A's are slugging .363 as a team right now, and Bonds slugged .565 last year. So, Billy Beane... what say you?

Allergy Season

2008-05-07T09:08:00.000-04:00

Amazing article: Teen is running out of innings, but the game still isn't over

h/t deadspin

Man-Crushing on Bill James

2008-04-02T10:01:00.000-04:00

Question: What statistical software do you use?
Bill James: Just Excel.

Bill James Answers All Your Baseball Questions - Freakonomics - Opinion - New York Times Blog

More EWSL

2008-03-20T11:22:00.000-04:00

Baseball Crank published the 2008 AL West EWSL Report on Tuesday and the 2008 AL East EWSL Report today. Lots of interesting stuff in both of those.

Just to pull out a few nuggets, Crank is more realistic about the A's chances than I am, and his data suggests the Rays will have a really tough time living up to the Baseball Prospectus projections that have them winning 88-89 games.

It's EWSL Time

2008-03-14T08:34:00.000-04:00

BaseballCrank has been publishing his EWSL series for each of the last few years, and he unveiled his first division projection of 2008 this week - AL Central.

There's a lot of good thought in the method and great analysis surrounding the output. I'm officially excited for the 2008 season, regardless of the A's bleak outlook - which I'm sure the Crank will document in excrutiating detail over the coming weeks.

My First Interview

2008-03-14T08:27:00.000-04:00

I was recently interviewed by the Modesto Bee about finding a job. You can read the full article here: Landing a job is hard in tough economic times, but persistence is the key

Stay focused on your area of expertise and the geographic area where you want to live, advised Andrew Koch, co-founder of TheLadders.com, a job search site that specializes in high-paying positions.

"If you start applying for jobs that are not a fit, you will get less response and that can be frustrating," Koch said.

Use industry "buzzwords" in your résumé so it pops up in résumé database searches online, he said, and choose a slightly different, but professional, font on a printed résumé so it stands out from the others.

Looking for a job should be treated as a job, he said.

"The people who are consistent and are actively looking for jobs each week and each month, or however long it takes, those are the people who get jobs," Koch said.

I'll admit that the grammar in that last quote is questionable, but I'm certainly happy about my newfound "celebrity".

Reason for Optimism?

2008-02-25T06:21:00.000-05:00

In his post, Adjusting PECOTA to Make the A's Win, Catfish Stew's Ken Arneson provides "a little balloon of hope to lift you through spring training, before reality comes along to stick a pin in it."

It's a smart analysis of the A's chances (not good) and what has to happen for them to catch the Angels (lots of stuff). It's worth a read, and it does provide a sparkle of hope for A's fans expecting an unbearable 2008 season. But that's all there is - a sparkle of hope.

Martz to the Niners

2008-01-09T04:29:00.000-05:00

Niners hire Martz to turn offense around - Yahoo! News

"Mike Martz claims he can put together a fantastic offense with mostly the same San Francisco 49ers who made up the NFL's worst unit in 2007."

I've never been a big Mike Martz fan, but this is both encouraging and discouraging news for the Niners. They desperately need some offense next year, and Martz should be able to help. The bad news is that their new coach may be delusional. I have a hard time picturing Alex Smith leading a "fantastic" offense next season. Maybe Martz just has a more generous definition of "fantastic" than I do.

Seeing with Your Tongue

2007-12-28T08:01:00.000-05:00

The Seeing Tongue: Science News Online

Researchers at the University of Wisconsin, Madison are developing this tongue-stimulating system, which translates images detected by a camera into a pattern of electric pulses that trigger touch receptors. The scientists say that volunteers testing the prototype soon lose awareness of on-the-tongue sensations. They then perceive the stimulation as shapes and features in space. Their tongue becomes a surrogate eye.

That is extremely cool. (hat tip to Freakonomics)

Farewell Dan Haren

2007-12-15T08:00:00.000-05:00

The Oakland A's traded Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks last night. (Story on SFGate)

Now that we know the A's are rebuilding, what other moves make sense? Should they deal Blanton too? Probably. But what about Harden, Street, Swisher, Ellis, Crosby and Chavez. If we're going to rebuild, let's not mess around with a half-assed effort. As GM Billy Beane said, "We finally know where we're going and we're going to go full bore." It will be tough to watch the A's struggle through their 2008 season, but I am excited about rebuilding. Bring on the changes.

As for Haren, he gave the A's 660 innings with an ERA of 3.64 over three years. That's pretty darn good pitching, especially when you consider the alternative. Since the Haren-Mulder trade, Mark Mulder pitched 300 innings with a 5.00 ERA. Beane definitely got the better end of that deal (even before you factor in Daric Barton), and I'm optmistic about this latest trade as well.

So, what did the A's get for Haren?

The prospects coming to Oakland are left-handed pitchers Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, infielder Chris Carter, and outfielders Aaron Cunningham and Carlos Gonzalez. -A's Official Site

David PInto over at Baseball Musings has some thoughts on five of the newest Athletics:

All five players sent to the Athletics are prospects. Brett Anderson will be 20 in 2008 and had an outstanding season at A ball. Dana Eveland hasn't translated his low minor league walk numbers to the majors yet. Greg Smith also posts good walk and strikeout numbers in the minors. Aaron Cunningham is developing power as he rises through the minors. Carlos Gonzalez is the least impressive one of the group, but he's only 21 and already at AAA. Basically, the Athletics restocked their system with five good players.

Well, I don't own an Athletics Nation t-shirt with "In Billy We Trust" on the back for nothing...

Mitchell Report Falls Short

2007-12-15T07:41:00.000-05:00

I've glanced through the "REPORT TO THE COMMISSIONER OF BASEBALL OF AN INDEPENDENT INVESTIGATION INTO THE ILLEGAL USE OF STEROIDS AND OTHER PERFORMANCE ENHANCING SUBSTANCES BY PLAYERS IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL." My impression was that George Mitchell and crew were really only able to get a couple people to really talk. They were then able to follow the new leads from the first interviews to unravel what you might call a steroid ring. But I have a hard time believing this is the only group of ballplayers to use steroids. In fact, the first page of the report admits as much:

We identify some of the players who were caught up in the drive to gain a competitive advantage through the illegal use of these substances. Other investigations will no doubt turn up more names and fill in more details...

I, like many others, had somehow expected a comprehensive list of people using performance enhancing drugs, so I am disappointed that the report listed so few people. There are certainly players named in the report whose careers will be judged differently now, but besmirching Roger Clemens' legacy isn't enough. I still want to know the full list of players on steroids and when they took them.

Good News, Bad News

2007-12-06T07:20:00.000-05:00

Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis going to the Tigers is both good news and bad news for the A's. The bad news is that they're moving into the AL, but the good news is that the Angels didn't get them.

So far this offseason, the Angels have been mentioned as potential suitors for every significant trade and high-end free agent. It's been great news for the A's that nothing has worked out for them yet. I'm curious to see what the rest of the offseason holds. Will the A's deal Haren? Blanton? Anyone?

Recognition for the Boss

2007-12-06T07:14:00.000-05:00

Marc Cenedella, CEO of TheLadders, was named #21 in the Silicon Alley 100. Kudos, Marc!

Bonds Indicted

2007-11-15T17:55:00.000-05:00

Over at Athletics Nation, Blez nails it in his post on this topic, Bonds Indicted: "...perhaps this takes a lot of options for the Angels off the table."

The A's offseason plans seemed to be resting on the Angels. If the Angels got Bonds and/or A-Rod, the A's would unload major leaguers for prospects and rebuild. If the Angels got neither, a possibility which is looking more and more likely, the A's would re-load, hope for a healthy 2008 and make another run at the AL West.

With Bonds out of the picture (as either a convict or a pariah) and A-Rod likely re-signing with the Yankees, things are shaping up for the A's to have a decent chance at the division title. With a little old-fashioned Billy Beane magic, an improved training regimen to keep players healthy and a little luck, the A's could be a frisky team next year.

What is the Piedmont A-11 Offense?

2007-11-13T09:36:00.000-05:00

My high old school's football team unveiled a new offense this season called the Piedmont A-11 Offense. The idea is to have 11 potentially eligible receivers on the field.

Here's how it works:
-Three guys line up wide left
-Three guys line up wide right
-Three guys line up in the middle
-Two guys available to receive the snap behind the middle three
-Everyone reports as an eligible receiver
-Players shift up or back to have the seven players required on the line.

By spreading the potentially eligible receivers across the entire field, it forces the defense to account for every possible receiver on each play. Of course, on any given play, only 5 of those players can go downfield to catch a pass, and the rest remain ineligible to catch a downfield pass on that particular play.

I love this innovation. I only wish the coaches had come up with it 15 years ago. I would have had a blast playing in this system.

How about results? The team lost its first two games this year before running off seven straight wins. They ended up losing in a league championship game last Friday, but they made the California Interscholastic Federation (CIF) NCS - 2A East Bay playoffs anyway. They play Las Lomas this weekend. Go Highlanders!

UPDATE: Piedmont lost to Las Lomas on 11/16. Maybe another year of experience in the system will make the team that much better next year...

Venture Capital History

2007-11-08T05:23:00.000-05:00

Fred Wilson's got an interesting series going over at A VC, covering the history of venture capital fund performance. First, a look at VC returns from the late sixties through 1997. And this morning he's included the last ten years of data as well.

He's "surprised that the 2001, 2002, and 2003 vintage years aren't showing better numbers." So am I. After the big drop in the very late 90's, VC's should have been able to buy low and earn better returns than they're showing. Fred's probably right when he argues that the "chart will look at lot differently in three or four years".

I'm looking forward to his next installment.

Facebook - World's Most Expensive Pet Rock?

2007-10-24T13:51:00.000-04:00

Microsoft to Pay $240 Million for Stake in Facebook - New York Times

The two companies said on Wednesday that Microsoft would invest $240 million for a 1.6 percent stake in Facebook. The investment values the three-year-old Facebook, which will bring in about $150 million in revenue this year, at $15 billion.

...

Mark Zuckerberg, the 23-year-old Facebook founder who dropped out of Harvard to build the company, owns a 20 percent share which is now valued at $3 billion. Accel Partners, the venture capital firm that invested $12.7 million in May 2005 and owns 11 percent of Facebook, now holds stock worth $1.65 billion.

Yipes! That is a lot of money.

By the way, didn't Steve Ballmer (CEO of Microsoft) call Facebook a "fad" two weeks ago? Yes, he did. Well, that's one expensive pet rock you got there, Steve-o.

Great Advice from Marc Andreesen

2007-10-22T09:33:00.000-04:00

I was catching up on my blogs over lunch this afternoon and came across Marc Andreesen's three-part series on Career Planning. Wow! It is a must read for young folks starting college, just graduating or early in their careers. I've only been out of school for a few years, but his advice is spot on as far as I'm concerned.

In fact, I'm lucky to have gotten some of that same advice either directly from or by watching my mentor, friend and boss.

Here are the three posts:
The Pmarca Guide to Career Planning, part 1: Opportunity
The Pmarca Guide to Career Planning, part 2: Skills and education
The Pmarca Guide to Career Planning, part 3: Where to go and why

p.s. If I'm six years out of school, can I still reasonably say that it's only been "a few years"?
p.p.s. If you're reading this and don't know who Marc is, start here.

Excel Isn't Infallible?

2007-09-28T09:18:00.000-04:00

mrshafrir emailed me this link: Microsoft Excel Fails Math Test

It turns out that Excel isn't perfect after all. I feel like I've been betrayed.

Dreaming in Excel

2007-09-26T05:43:00.000-04:00

I have been using Microsoft Excel for a long time, but before last night, I don't think I ever had visions of sugar plum spreadsheets dancing in my head. I guess there's a first for everything, but what does it mean?

People say you truly understand a foreign language when you start speaking and hearing it in your dreams. So, does this mean I'm fluent in excel now? Has anyone else experienced this?

Well, it turns out, I'm not totally alone. Google has 10 matches for "dream in excel" or "dreaming in excel":

Teaching Basic Excel to Adults: "I ... dream in Excel models, so there's a downside"
F1 Get the Most out of Excel! The Ultimate Excel Tip Help Guide: "I DREAM in Excel (yeah, I know, I'm a sicko)"
Profitability Data Mart: Using Oracle 9i Windowing Functions in Cost of Funds and Interest Expense Calculation: "[Finance people] dream in Excel. If you ask them what they had for lunch, they quickly open an Excel sheet in their minds, put all the courses with all the ingredients and prices, draw a pivot table, apply a standard deviation and a variance and will give you not only the price per calorie but the trends in the food industry in the next five years."
When the going gets tough...: "[Statistics] is driving me insane... Seriously. Sometimes I dream in excel spreadsheets."
USNEW Rankings & UG Business Programs - Page 4 - College Discussion: "Banking is very very simple and boring .... You will dream in Excel."
Slashdot | Upcoming SuSE 9.0 Professional Reviewed: [no good quote]
Part of OSS Movement Is Seeking "World Domination;" Like All Battle Planners, the Commanders Appear to be Fighting the Last War: [no good quote]
Accounting Manager on Monster: "Do you dream in Excel spreadsheet format, but crave working with fun and creative people?"
{not crazy}: "Sleep deprivation is bad for you. Dreaming in Excel ... [is not healthy]."
My Mind on Kamchatka: "They are doing a good job, I just have to be nit picky. I'll be dreaming in Excel again."

I think this must mean I'm one of the 11 biggest Excel nerds in the world. I'm not sure whether I should be proud or concerned. Probably concerned.

Don't Get Ahead of Yourself

2007-09-24T10:02:00.000-04:00

Over at 6-4-2, they're celebrating the Angel's division title, and looking ahead to an admittedly bright future. But as a bitter A's fan, I take issue with the idea that Angels fans have seen "a division winner, year after (mostly) year."

The Angels have won the AL West three of the last four years, but before that, they hadn't won their division since 1986. And they won the 2004 division title by only a single measly game over the A's. Flip one game in the 2004 standings and the A's and Angels have split the last four division titles. Even without any revisionist history, the A's and Angels have each won the AL West three times in the last six years. That's hardly "a division winner, year after ... year."

And while the Angels do have an admirable farm system and quality young talent in their organization, success is no gimme. I say we hold off on crowning the Angels as AL West champions through 2015...

Yes, It's Too Late

2007-08-23T20:37:00.000-04:00

Over at Baseball Musings, Pinto asks if the A's are Improving Too Late?

In a word: Yes

One of my favorite pages on the "internets" is the playoff odds report from Baseball Prospectus, which (sadly) shows the A's have a 0.732% chance of making the postseason as of 8/22/07. While I would LOVE to see the A's somehow pull it off, it's just not going to happen.

Great Baseball Tale

2007-08-20T08:52:00.000-04:00

Brad Ziegler, a minor leaguer in the Oakland A's farm system, has been blogging over on AthleticsNation all season. In his most recent post, he pointed to a post from another minor leaguer: BaseballAmerica.com: Minors: Non-Prospect Diary: Dirk Hayhurst. It's a well-written post about how trivial baseball is and at the same time, how it can mean so much. Definitely worth the read.

I still can't explain why people treat us so special for putting on a baseball uniform. But in those few moments together, it didn't really matter--in those few moments, baseball made perfect sense.

Bronx Zoo

2007-08-13T12:48:00.000-04:00

My sister (who's currently blogging her trip through China and Southeast Asia) went to the Bronx Zoo a few years ago when she was in Teach for America training. She had a great time and recommended I make the journey (to the Bronx, not to China). Well, this weekend, I finally trekked up to 180th street in the Bronx to see the zoo. It was quite the time. The Congo Gorilla Forest was the highlight, with baby gorillas wrestling each other and looking just too darn cute.

I neglected to bring my camera, so we'll have to settle for someone else's pictures on Flickr. Here, then, is a slide show of pictures with the tags "Bronx Zoo Gorilla". Enjoy!

Kendall to the Cubbies

2007-07-19T18:56:00.000-04:00

From Gregg:

A’s Fan #1: Guess what? We traded Jason Kendall.
A’s Fan #2: Great trade. Who’d we get?

I enjoyed some aspects of the Jason Kendall era: tagging out Michael Young at homeplate to end the game and scoring the winning run from third when K-Rod dropped a throw from the catcher. And to be fair, the pitching staff seemed to do well with him behind the plate.

Kendall's cERA with Oakland (2005-07): 3.81
Total ERA for Oakland (2005-07): 3.90

But, I can't say I enjoyed the 482 AB/HR or the .658 OPS. In fact, Kendall's OPS so far this year is .538, worst amongst all MLB batters that qualify for the batting title (3.1 plate appearances per team game). It didn't help that the A's were paying him $11mm/yr. Anyway, I don't think this trade means the A's are throwing in the towel. I'm still holding out hope...

Things are Looking Grim for the A's

2007-07-18T06:10:00.000-04:00

Well, the A's have lost nine straight games and fallen 12 games behind the AL West leading Angels and 11.5 games behind the wild card leading Indians. Oddly, I haven't given up hope. I somehow still believe the A's can put together a run at the playoffs. If Rich Harden, Huston Street and Mike Piazza can get healthy and return to form, I think the A's still have an outside shot at making things interesting.

But things do indeed look bad. Here's a look at 10-game rolling averages for the A's runs scored for and runs scored against:

Basically, you want the blue line to be above the pink line, and that really hasn't been the case since mid-June. Since beating the Cardinals 14-3 on June 15, the A's have averaged 3.8 runs per game, while allowing an average of 5.75 runs. With a run differential like that, you'd expect a team to win only 30% of its games, and sure enough, the A's have gone 7-21, playing .250 baseball. Things aren't looking pretty, and we're quickly approaching the point where we're forced to "Wait Till Next Year."

Curt Schilling - Not Quite Perfect

2007-06-07T13:55:00.000-04:00

Loud groans from the Red Sox fans in the office this afternoon as Shannon Stewart spoiled Curt Schilling's no-hit bid. It's nice to make them miserable even when we let them win the occasional game.

Too bad Blanton didn't get any offensive support. His 7.1 innings of 4-hit ball weren't too shabby.

I got a kick out of the Games Notes from Yahoo!'s box score:

BOSTON PITCHER CURT SCHILLING HAS A NO-HITTER THROUGH SIX INNINGS.

BOSTON PITCHER CURT SCHILLING HAS A NO-HITTER THROUGH SEVEN INNINGS.

BOSTON PITCHER CURT SCHILLING HAS A NO-HITTER THROUGH EIGHT INNINGS.

BOSTON PITCHER CURT SCHILLING HAS A NO-HITTER THROUGH 8 1/3 INNINGS.

BOSTON PITCHER CURT SCHILLING HAS A NO-HITTER THROUGH 8 2/3 INNINGS.

THE SINGLE BY OAKLAND'S SHANNON STEWART WITH TWO OUTS IN THE NINTH INNING ENDED CURT SCHILLING'S NO-HITTER.

TheLadders in the New York Times

2007-06-03T20:33:00.000-04:00

Well, the New York Times is publishing an article about the high end job search Monday morning:Listing Top Jobs but Charging Candidates to Seek Them - New York Times

It's extremely gratifying to see TheLadders getting some recognition from the Times for our new approach to the job search.

Good Signs for Rich Harden

2007-03-09T04:14:00.000-05:00

Inside Bay Area - Harden fast: Debut a gas

The A's projected ace was lights-out in his Cactus League debut, striking out five of the last six hitters he faced and tossing two scoreless innings in his team's 4-3 win over the San Diego Padres at Peoria Sports Complex. Harden surrendered only a two-out double to Adrian Gonzalez in the third inning, and second baseman Marcus Giles was the only other Padre to make contact against him.
...
Harden said he'll mix in his curveball and slider as the exhibition season continues.

So, at this point in the spring, Harden is throwing only fastballs and changeups -- and he's dominating. Gotta love that.

(Hat tip to Baseball Musings)

There's Still Hope

2007-02-27T09:38:00.000-05:00

Baseball Musings: Mixed Media Message

David Pinto points us towards a report that the MLB_DirecTV deal may not be exclusive after all. I hope that ends up being the case - and I hope Time Warner Cable doesn't screw me on this one the way they have with the NFL Network.

Baseball Crank Updates EWSL

2007-02-26T05:34:00.000-05:00

I've long admired the work Baseball Crank has done on EWSL - Established Win Shares Level. I think it's a great way to take a look at the upcoming year using Win Shares. The basic idea is to look at a players Win Shares from the past three years to determine their Established Level, and then project their performance for the next year based on their age.

He's been looking back at the last few years of data and working to update the model. Here's his three part series:

Part I: 2006 EWSL Wrapup By Team
Part II: EWSL Rookie Adjustments
Part II: Age and EWSL, 2004-06

The whole series is worth a read. For A's fans in particular, it's interesting to look at Part I. Huston Street, Antonio Perez and Rich Harden are listed as the "Worst" 2006 performers for the Athletics. They under-performed relative to their age-adjusted EWSL. Why? For Harden, it was clearly the injuries. For Huston Street, it was probably nagging injuries as well. As for Antonio Perez, I think EWSL simply over-estimated his value.

But regardless of those shortcomings, the A's ended up doing slightly better than the EWSL model predicted. Frank Thomas was undoubtedly a big part of that, but the A's played pretty well last year across the board. It's encouraging to think about what the A's might be able to do this year with a healthy Bobby Crosby and a healthy Rich Harden. There are certainly unanswered questions swirling around the A's (Piazza's production, for example), but as an A's fan, I can't help but be optimistic.

Love the Customer

2007-02-13T06:08:00.000-05:00

Here at TheLadders, we are very focused on loving the customer. Our CEO, Marc Cenedella, used to do a lot of business in Japan, and he brought back this phrase: "Okyaku-sama wa kami-sama desu", which means "The Customer is God." We try to keep that in mind for everything we do.

The most visible way to see that is to interact with our fantastic Community group, as Rob O'Regan discovered this week:

The Right Way To Do Customer Service

Proactive, friendly customer service. No muss, no fuss. What a concept! I will certainly use their service again, and I will recommend TheLadders.com to my friends and colleagues. This is customer service done right.

Thanks for the kudos, Rob!

CSFBL - In Limbo

2007-02-12T18:39:00.000-05:00

Astonishingly few people even know about CSFBL - Computer Simulated Fantasy Baseball League - but those of us that do know love it. The basic idea is that you create or adopt a fictional baseball franchise and manage it season after season - leagues vary from 2 games/day to 8 games/day.

You have control over your 25-man major league roster, a roster in the high-minors and a third roster of up-and-comers in the low-minors. You can adjust your lineup, your pitching rotation, your managerial style, your spending on scouts, training, development and you draft new players each year. After each game, you can check the box scores, and check the compiled stats for the year, of for all time. It's not quite as polished as whatifsports.com and the feature set isn't as rich - but it's free. For someone like me that can only check it for a few minutes a week, it's the perfect baseball fix for the offseason. You only need to invest as much or as little time as you'd like...

Nerdy? Or course.
Fun? Absolutely.

So, why is it in limbo? The site has been down since 1/22, the server has moved from an ISP to the proprieter's basement and there's really no telling when things will be back up and running. Their outage blog suggests that they'll be up by Monday, but this is a hobby, rather than a business. There's no guarantee there.

So, what's next? If CSFBL is going to survive, they need to make a business out of this. Much like whatifsports has done with simulated baseball, like Match.com has done with personals and like we've done with executive job search over at TheLadders.com, they need to offer a simple basic version that gives people a taste of the product and encourages people to upgrade to a paid version for full access, features, etc.

Whatifsports has proven that the business model can work for sports, and it's really not that different from the fantasy sports behemoths - CBS Sportsline, ESPN and Yahoo. The revenue from the run-of-network ads on CSFBL wasn't enough to make the site anything more than a hobby, and the donations through Amazon.com's Honor System haven't done the trick either. As sad as it will be for us freeloaders, it's time for CSFBL to get serious and try to make some money off the quality engine they've built.

They've hinted at the idea a bit in a blog post, suggesting (in a FAQ format) that the level of donations by a particular league might determine whether or not they get migrated to the new, improved version of the site. But it's not going to be enough. I guess I just don't understand why they're so reluctant to turn their baby into even a small business. It's a no-brainer.

UPDATE: In the few brief hours since I posted this, the CSFBL site has been revived!

MLB Just Spoiled My Day

2007-01-23T07:30:00.000-05:00

I find this news extremely aggravating:

If you don't have DirectTV this year (or for the next seven years), you're not going to be able to order the MLB Extra Innings package, because DirectTV just paid $700 million for exclusive rights over the next seven years. It will also be the exclusive home to a 24-hour baseball channel.

In Case You Had Any Doubt, MLB Doesn't Care About You At All - Deadspin

I guess those of us who cannot possibly get DirecTV will be stuck staring at a low-res video feed on our computers for the duration of the baseball season. I used to be able to work on the computer while I was watching A's games, but I'm not sure how I'm going to be able to handle this. Do I have to get another laptop that I can connect to the TV? This whole thing is just miserable. Damn you, MLB!

Fascinating Click Survey/Study

2007-01-03T04:57:00.000-05:00

Thanks to Josh Levine for the link: http://blog.outer-court.com/click2/

My favorite is the chart for the rectangle that says "Don't Click Here". That's probably the most-clicked area in the entire survey! Crazy web contrarians.

Farewell to Ron Washington

2006-11-06T09:22:00.000-05:00

Here's the Dallas Morning News article:

"Oakland third base coach Ron Washington will be hired as the [Ranger's] manager, Daniels confirmed to The Dallas Morning News on Monday morning."

I will offer congrats to Ron Washington, who probably deserved the shot at a managerial position. But I cannot wish him the best of luck. Managing the Rangers means the A's will see an awful lot of him and I can't root for them, as much as I've respected Wash's work with the A's. As third base and infield coach, he's never raised ire for sending runners when he shouldn't have and even more importantly, crafted an amazing infield defense.

Eric Chavez won his sixth straight Gold Glove award this year and the rest of the infield was only a hair behind him. If it had been up to me, Mark Ellis would have gotten the Gold Glove for second base this year too. He made only two errors all season and made the fantastic plays seem routine.

So, I can't root for Washington and the Rangers all year, but I will at least root for them to crush the Angels as often as they can. Bon voyage and good luck, Wash.

Jobster Calls Out Monster

2006-11-06T05:52:00.000-05:00

Kudos to Jobster's Jason Golberg for calling out Monster's "crap product." Video here.

The amount of ads the job seeker has to fight through on Monster is just ridiculous. Sure, the business is doing well, but they're abusing the job seeker. It may help them make money in the short term, but it's an AWFUL experience.

(Hat tip to Joel Cheesman for the video and for standing up to the man)

Hats Off to the Tigers

2006-10-15T05:29:00.000-04:00

Well, the A's put up a little fight in each game, but if you look at the 4-0 Tigers sweep, you really don't see any fight at all. The Tigers just flat-out beat the A's. The Tigers had great hitting, great starting pitching, great relief pitching and solid defense while the A's really didn't show nearly enough of those things.

From around the interweb...

-Ken Arneson:

...without Ellis and his MLB-record 2B fielding percentage, and without Justin Duchscherer, who can throw two shutdown innings in the middle of a ballgame, the A's M.O. was gone. Those two guys were the keys, the very heart and soul of the A's success in 2006.

-Barry Zito:

I'm sure in a couple of days I'll have a more positive outlook, and I'll be able to look back at the season and smile. But right now it's just really tough because of the fashion in which we lost. We just laid down, myself included...

Eventually I'll look back at some highlights. Beating Santana in the Metrodome, highlight of my career. Going in there, with all odds against me and the team -- not just that game but the whole series -- and getting through it on the positive side is definitely a highlight...

The plane ride home is going to be pretty emotional. That kind of stuff goes on every year, saying goodbye to guys because you know they're not going to be back or might not be back. You go up to those guys and make a real point to express how much you like playing with those guys, how much you love being around them. But this year I might be the guy leaving, so I want to go up to the rest of the guys and tell them how much I appreciate playing with them, their competitive spirit, their love, their determination and their support in the clubhouse. That's going to be emotional, I'm sure.

Finally, I'd just like to thank the people who have been following us and supporting us all this time. If this ends up being my last year here, I just want the fans to know how much I love them, too. That's all I can really say right now. Thanks for everything.

Man, I'm going to miss that guy.

-Nico on Athletics Nation:

From early in Game 1 to the end of Game 4, it was simply the Tigers time to play in the World Series. The A's, built on starting pitching, would fail to get a single quality start in the ALCS. Frank Thomas didn't get a single hit. You're not going to win too many series under those circumstances. ... I'm proud of the 2006 Oakland A's. And I can't wait for Spring Training, 2007.

-The Pastime: "Detroit was simply the better team over these 4 games. Eric Chavez took a lot of heat for saying that, but he was right. They made very few mistakes, and took advantage of the A's miscues."

-From Bruce Jenkins at the SF Chronicle:
"That man over there," said Bradley [of Frank Thomas], "that's just greatness. I grew up watching him play. Now I'm watching him accept defeat with humility. He's handling his struggles like a man. He taught me, a lot of us, how to be major-league players. You can't replace that kind of leadership."

-More from Jenkins:

Milton Bradley is the last Oakland player coming off the field, in a slow walk. He's pointing to someone on the Tigers, as if to say, "Job well done." He's pausing now, and I've got my eye on him, becase he was the Oakland A's today. Now he has been acknowledged, but Bradley is hanging around, all by himself, outside the A's dugout.

Wow. It appears that Jim Leyland is the man Bradley was acknowledging. Now Leyland is coming over to pay his respects to the A's. What a class act... Leyland knows the feeling of heartbreak, and he knows how the A's feel right now, and he has left the madness of his own team's triumph to commiserate with Oakland.

I guess I'll be rooting for the Tigers in the World Series. They're a hell of a team and a classy bunch.

Athletics Nation Says It All

2006-10-12T05:23:00.000-04:00

After Game 2, the A's are "Down But Not Out"

Zito's Thoughts on ALCS Game 1

2006-10-11T05:59:00.000-04:00

Barry Zito's Playoff Blog: Don't bet against us

They were gonna make me throw them strikes, and that's just something I didn't do. I think a lot of teams that face me, if they're not swinging, it's either because they're trying to time me or because they're going to make me throw strike one, and I didn't throw strike one nearly enough, so I take full responsibility for the loss.

...

I would never bet against this team. First of all because it's against the rules, but also because we've been through so much, and we've been counted out many times. If we can just refocus and clean the slate for tomorrow, I think things will start to look up for us.

Game 2: Verlander vs Loaiza

2006-10-11T05:48:00.000-04:00

People are talking about Justin Verlander like he's the second coming of Josh Beckett, circa 2003. I had Verlander on one of my fantasy baseball teams, and he pretty much ran out of gas down the stretch. He was fantastic in July but really scuffled through August and September, as they say young pitchers tend to do.

How does Loaiza compare? Loaiza stunk up the joint for the first few months of the season before turning in a fantastic August and a mediocre September. To confirm my recollections on these guys, I took a look at their game scores, using BaseballMusings' Day by Day Database.

By the way, here's the definition of "Game Score" from Baseball-Almanac.com:

Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

And here's how they stack up (monthly averages above 50 are bolded):

Verlander definitely had the better year, but he hasn't pitched great since July. And his September game scores really mirror Loaiza's. I just don't see this as the mis-match I keep hearing about from the TV folks at ESPN and Fox.

Let's Go A's!

Vacation?

2006-10-10T20:53:00.000-04:00

The A's pitching, defense and clutch hitting took a near total holiday today.

Pitching
As great as Zito was last week against the Twins, he really struggled against the Tigers tonight in Game 1 of the ALCS. Gaudin, Kennedy, Calero and Blanton pitched well in relief (4.1 IP and no runs), but Zito allowed 7 hits, walked three, struck out no one and gave up 5 runs in 3.2 innings.

Defense
Where the A's played nearly flawless defense against the Twins, they kicked the ball around today. Chavez made an uncharacteristic mistake on a bases-loaded grounder in the third inning that allowed a run to score. It was a tough play moving to his left, but Chavez usually makes that play -- an out there would have saved a run and ended the inning.

Then, in the fourth, D'Angelo Jimenez looked like he was trying to stop the clock instead of turning a double-play. With Craig Monroe on first, Marcus Thames grounded a ball to Chavez who zipped it over to Jimenez. As he turned to throw to first for the double-play (a near guarantee with a healthy Mark Ellis), Jimenez essentially spiked the ball into the ground (it did make it at least 75 or 80 feet in the air). Instead of two outs and the bases empty, Zito had only one out and a runner on second. The next two batters doubled and grounded out. If Jimenez had turned that double-play, the A's are out of the inning without allowing any more runs. BUT - the Tigers ended up scoring two more runs.

Those two defensive missteps arguably cost the A's 3 runs. Take those three runs away and the final score is 2-1, which takes us to our next point...

Clutch Hitting
The A's were 0-13 with runners in scoring postion. Here's the litany of good situations the A's turned sour:
-Runners on first and second with one out in the first.
-Runners on first and second with one out in the third.
-Runners on second and third with NO out in the fourth.
-Runners on first and second with NO out in the fifth.
-Runners on first and second with one out in the sixth.

It's almost unbelievable that a team could put itself in all of those situations and not score a single run. But then, this is how the A's roll in the post-season. So far this year, the A's are 3-34 with runners in scoring position. Since making the playoffs in 2000, the A's are 40-174 with RISP (according to my rough scanning of the retrosheet box scores: example). That's a .230 batting average. In fact, the A's were only 4-42 (.095) in 2001 while losing two of five to the Yankees.

This clutch hitting problem is nothing new, but we don't have to like it. And the A's don't have to keep it up. Tonight was painful, but the A's are capable of going 4-2 over the remaining 6 games against the Tigers. They just have to pitch, play defense and get a few clutch hits.

LET'S GO A'S

Underdogs

2006-10-09T09:42:00.000-04:00

From David Pinto's ALCS Preview: "I'll pick Detroit, with about a 60% chance of winning the series."

Well, I think that's better odds than anyone gave us against the Twins...

Oh, and here's your typical A's fan.

Sweep!

2006-10-07T09:24:00.000-04:00

Oh, the joy! I was only able to watch two half-innings of the entire Twins-A's ALDS. Bottom of the ninth in game 1 and top of the ninth in game 3. But what an enjoyable two innings they were. The Guinness in my hand was shaking last night as Street wobbled through the ninth inning towards the save and the sweep.

When was the last time the A's won a postseason series? It's been 16 years! The last time the A's won a series, they swept the Red Sox in the 1990 ALCS. Since then, post-season agony:
-1990 World Series, swept by the Reds
-1992 ALCS, lost to the Blue Jays 4-2
-2000 ALDS, Lost to the Yankees 3-2 ("Jill" Heredia gave up 6 runs in the top of the first inning of game 5 with some help from CF Terrence Long)
-2001 ALDS, Lost to the Yankees 3-2 (lost three straight after taking the first two games in New York. Oh, and there was that whole Jeter flip, Jeremy Giambi no-slide play...)
-2002 ALDS, Lost to the Twins 3-2 (lost the last two games after going up 2-1. The tastefully named Billy Koch gave up three runs in the top of the ninth of game 5, which the A's lost 5-4)
-2003 ALDS, Lost to the Red Sox 3-2 (Went up 2-0 before baserunning blunders by Eric Byrnes and Miguel Tejada and Ricado Rincon's inability to stop Todd Walker submarined the A's.)

That's six consecutive post-season series the A's had lost, the last four in excrutiating fashion. So, I could hardly believe it was happening as Luis Castillo popped out to Jay Payton in left to end the series. It's been so long, and we've rooted for such great teams in the last few years. It just seemed like we were destined to root for a postseason loser. Clearing that hurdle, getting that monkey off their backs is such a relief. If only the A's had gotten past the Yankees in 2000 or 2001, if only they'd gotten past the Twins in 2002 or the Red Sox in 2003... Well, let's hope this is our year.

"For all of those die hard A’s fans that haven’t seen a World Series since 1989, we hope to bring that back to them." -Barry Zito

Let's Go A's!

From around the interweb:
-Video from the A's locker room. I love me some Nick Swisher.
-Barry Zito: "I Can't Explain How it Feels" (Another excellent piece from Zito's blog. Really well written and heart-felt.)
-Catfish Stew: "Woooooooooooooooh! Woooooooooooooooo! Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa! Woooooooooooooooooooooooo!"
-David Pinto at BaseballMusings: "Many people said the Twins were the scariest team in the playoffs, mostly due to their great pitching. That was there in the first two games, but Oakland managed to pitch just a little bit better, and hit a bit better."
-Blez, at Athletics Nation: "Bring on the Yankees or Tigers. I personally would love to see the Yankees and finish that book that Michael Lewis started years ago. But right now, I couldn't give a rat's ass who it is..."

mmmm, ALCS...