AndrewKoch.com

Allergy Season

Amazing article: Teen is running out of innings, but the game still isn't over

h/t deadspin

Martz to the Niners

Niners hire Martz to turn offense around - Yahoo! News

"Mike Martz claims he can put together a fantastic offense with mostly the same San Francisco 49ers who made up the NFL's worst unit in 2007."

I've never been a big Mike Martz fan, but this is both encouraging and discouraging news for the Niners. They desperately need some offense next year, and Martz should be able to help. The bad news is that their new coach may be delusional. I have a hard time picturing Alex Smith leading a "fantastic" offense next season. Maybe Martz just has a more generous definition of "fantastic" than I do.

What is the Piedmont A-11 Offense?

My high old school's football team unveiled a new offense this season called the Piedmont A-11 Offense. The idea is to have 11 potentially eligible receivers on the field.

Here's how it works:
-Three guys line up wide left
-Three guys line up wide right
-Three guys line up in the middle
-Two guys available to receive the snap behind the middle three
-Everyone reports as an eligible receiver
-Players shift up or back to have the seven players required on the line.

By spreading the potentially eligible receivers across the entire field, it forces the defense to account for every possible receiver on each play. Of course, on any given play, only 5 of those players can go downfield to catch a pass, and the rest remain ineligible to catch a downfield pass on that particular play.

I love this innovation. I only wish the coaches had come up with it 15 years ago. I would have had a blast playing in this system.

How about results? The team lost its first two games this year before running off seven straight wins. They ended up losing in a league championship game last Friday, but they made the California Interscholastic Federation (CIF) NCS - 2A East Bay playoffs anyway. They play Las Lomas this weekend. Go Highlanders!

UPDATE: Piedmont lost to Las Lomas on 11/16. Maybe another year of experience in the system will make the team that much better next year...

Piedmont in the News

Whether linebacker or youth coach, he's in people's faces

[Bill] Romanowski, 40, who retired from the NFL in 2004, got into it last week with a seventh-grader from Lafayette who he felt was playing dirty against his Piedmont Highlanders, according to several people who were watching the game at a Lafayette middle school.

It's always nice to see the hometown get a little press. Thanks Romo!

NFL Wonderlic

One of my first posts on this site was about Akili Smith's wonderlic prowess, so it warmed my heart to see more buzz this weekend around Vince Young's alleged 6(!) on the test.

Setting The Vince Young Record Straight - Deadspin

All the buzz yesterday at the NFL Combine in Indianapolis... involved a supposed score of “6” by Texas quarterback Vince Young on his Wonderlic test.

Makes me wonder, though, if this Wonderlic test is really all it's cracked up to be. If it's so easily scored incorrectly and an individual's scores can vary so wildly (Akili allegedly scored 13, 37 and 27 in his three attempts), I just don't think I can trust it. If someone took the SAT's three times, I'd expect their scores to at least be in the same ballpark - so why is the NFL using a test that's so imprecise? And why aren't they using an automated scoring machine like a scantron?

The Best College QB You've Never Heard Of

I'm hip to this jive, but I can't imagine the general public is ready for this.

However, this I'm pretty sure about: Jay Cutler of Vanderbilt is the best quarterback available for the NFL draft come April.

I am not alone. A bunch of NFL scouts are whispering the same thing during Senior Bowl week in Mobile, Ala. Some of those even will put out some "negatives" on Cutler deliberately in hopes that he'll drop a little in the draft. It's not going to work.

-Chris Mortensen (ESPN Insiders only)

Horrible NFL Officiating Continues

As has been well-documented elsewhere (here, for one), the officiating in this year's NFL playoffs has been pretty poor. I'm watching the Steelers-Broncos game right now, and the Steelers just had a Jerome Bettis touchdown called back on an illegal formation penalty. The official said that Hines Ward lined up on the line of scrimmage outside the tight end, so the formation was illegal. That's just a bad call.

Here's what the NFL rulebook has to say: "Offensive team must have at least seven players on line." AT LEAST seven players. There's nothing barring them from having eight players on the line of scrimmage, as the Steelers did on the Bettis touchdown.

The only problem with "covering" the tight end is that the TE is no longer an eilgible receiver on that play. (Rulebook again: "Eligible receivers on the offensive team are players on either end of line (other than center, guard, or tackle) or players at least one yard behind the line at the snap.") But the touchdown came on a running play - whether you're an eligible receiver is irrelevant.

That is a horrible call. Fortunately, the Steelers scored another touchdown immediately thereafter, so the refs are off the hook. I'm curious to see if we can get a Joey Porter quote out of this...

Retrosheet for Football?

Retrosheet.org is a great resource for historical baseball knowledge. Why isn't there something like that for the NFL?

Our VP of Technology here at TheLadders.com (my favorite employment resource for executive jobs) and I are trying to figure out the record for the most field goals in a game (by both teams) without a touchdown. And there just isn't a resource out there that can help us. If you know the answer to the question *or* you're working on retrosheet for the NFL, email me: andrew at theladders

There's gotta be someone at Elias that can answer this question - throw us a bone here.

Too Much Hype About The Bears?

I listen to sports radio (Mike & Mike) as I get ready for work in the morning. I read the Sports Guy whenever he writes something. And I feel like there's a lot of talk about the Bears defense - how this year’s Bears are the new "Monsters of the Midway" and how the team is just like the 1985 team. I don't get it. Didn't everyone say that about the 2001 Bears? Check out the history of the Chicago Bears. And take a look at these defensive numbers:

1985 Bears
198 Points allowed
43% fewer than average
25% fewer than next-best

1986 Bears
187 Points allowed
43% fewer than average
21% fewer than next-best

1988 Bears
215 Points allowed
34% fewer than average
8% fewer than next-best

2001 Bears
203 Points allowed
37% fewer than average
2% fewer than next-best

2005 Bears (pace through 12 games)
170 Points allowed
49% fewer than average
22% fewer than next-best

So, I guess some of these defensive comparisons are justified. This defense has a chance to be something special - allowing only 170 points would be spectacular. But the Bears have had good defense a couple times since 1985 - let’s stop saying that this is the best Bear’s defense since 1985 until they finish the year.

And don’t forget – those ’85 Bears were also 2nd in the league in scoring offense.

A Little Hometown Love

Olson's heroics thrill Piedmont crowd

UCLA quarterback Drew Olson is creating quite a stir in the quiet, affluent East Bay city of Piedmont.

As an slightly older Piedmonter, I can say that Drew's been creating a stir in Pidemont for a long, long time. Even before his older brother, Eric, played quarterback for then-archrival Bishop O'Dowd in the fall of 1993, Drew Olson was a name that people in Piedmont knew. And if he's 22(?) now, he was a 10-year-old in 1993. Either Piedmont was a small town, or Drew was a tremendous talent even then - I think it's probably a little bit of both.

Anyway, best of luck to Drew at UCLA and beyond.

Whoops!

CNN.com - Report: Putin�pockets Patriots owner's Super Bowl ring - Jun 29, 2005

"Russian President Vladimir Putin walked off with New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft's diamond-encrusted 2005 Super Bowl ring, but was it a generous gift or a very expensive international misunderstanding?"

It's Been Awhile

In his post, Tom Petty Was Right, Mike Carminati asks, "What is the current longest wait for a sports city?" Where a sports city is a metro area with a team in each of the four major sports.

I was a little surprised to find that the SF Bay Area is #3 on his list with a no-championship drought of 10 years. Only Philadelpha (21 years) and Minneapolis (13 years) have been waiting for a championship longer than the Bay Area.

You know, Bill Simmons has talked at length about a grace period:

After your team wins a championship, they immediately get a five-year grace period: You can't complain about anything that happens (trades, draft picks, salary-cap cuts, coaching moves) for five years. There are no exceptions.

A list, then, of Bay Area Champions:
-A's, 1972
-A's, 1973
-A's, 1974
-Warriors, 1975
-Raiders, 1976
-Raiders, 1980 (The '83 Raiders were in LA)
-49ers, 1981
-49ers, 1984
-49ers, 1988
-A's, 1989
-49ers, 1989
-49ers, 1994

That's twelve championships, and 60 total years of "grace period" starting in 1972. That would mean we're still in our grace period all the way out to 2032, assuming we don't win another championship. But that just doesn't feel right. The first game of any kind that I remember watching was the '84 Super Bowl, so I shouldn't get a grace period for those championships I've only read about.

That leaves five "personal" championships starting in 1984. In that case, my own personal grace period should expire in 2009.

And it's a little different if you look at it on a team-by-team basis. I don't really care for the Raiders, Giants or Warriors, so I'll ignore them. But for the A's, we've been out of the grace period now for ten years - If you're only an A's fan, you can complain about damn near anything (and we do).

As for the 49ers, their five championships starting in 1981 will carry you through two more seasons to 2006 - my own personal grace period with the niners (excluding the '81 victory), however, expired at the end of the 2004 season.

So, I'll consider myself in a 20% grace period. I can certainly complain about either my A's or my 49ers without incurring the wrath of the sports gods, but I have been lucky enough to experience five championships. So, I suppose I shouldn't be too bitter about it. After all, they're just games, right?

BCS = Big F-ing Joke

Yahoo! Sports - NCAA Football - Cal angry, frustrated after Texas takes Rose Bowl spot

"Cal (10-1) was left out of the Bowl Championship Series... despite a season of statistical superlatives and dominating victories."

Instead of playing Michigan in the Rose Bowl, Cal will play Texas Tech, a 7-4 team that lost to New Mexico(!), Oklahoma, Texas and Texas A&M. The Red Raiders' seven wins were over the following teams:

SMU (3-8)
TCU (5-6)
Kansas (4-7)
Nebraska (5-6)
Kansas State (4-7)
Baylor (3-8)
Oklahoma State (7-4)

That's only ONE win over a team with a winning record. Hardly a team worthy of playing the team that both polls agree is the NUMBER FOUR team in the country.

And what of Texas? Both polls (AP and USA Today) agree that Texas is #5 in the country behind #4 California. While each team has only one loss, Texas was embarrased 12-0 by the #2 team in the country while Cal was barely edged out by the consensus #1 team in the country.

I hope Michigan and Cal win their respective Bowls by 40 points apiece. In fact, if USC destroys Oklahoma, Michigan beats Texas, Virginia Tech beats Auburn and Cal beats Texas Tech, it's not inconceivable that Cal could end the season as the #2 team in the country. And they're playing in the damn Holiday Bowl. What a joke.

This whole BCS thing will always be a farce to me until it's scrapped entirely and replaced with a playoff system.

(By the way, this is my second annual BCS complaint. Here's my first.)

Bizarre Coincidence

Since the Redskins became the Redskins in 1933, the result of the team's final home game before the presidential election has correctly predicted the White House winner. If the Redskins win, the incumbent party wins. If they lose, the incumbent party is ousted.

Sports Guy is Rusty

So, the Sports Guy is back on ESPN.com full time. This is great news, but he's not back at the top of his game yet.

Only the NHL would decide one day, "Hey, let's switch it around, we'll have the home teams wear dark uniforms. This won't be confusing at all."

The home teams only wear white shirts in the NFL when the weather is too hot. The Dolphins and Chargers are generally the teams that take advantage of this most often. (I vaguely remember a big to-do about this in the last season when Denver played at San Diego and ONLY brought their white shirts, forcing the Bolts to wear their dark jerseys in the oppressive heat. Am I making this up? Can someone else find a link to that story?)

Dogs or Bees

Which is your favorite non-sport sporting event, the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show or the National Spelling Bee?

Given that the Spelling Bee takes place in early June at the peak of the baseball season, I have to give the nod to the Dogs. The hounds have the common sense (or good fortune?) to stage their event in early February, between the Super Bowl and Spring Training. They also spread their event over two days in order to build the drama, and I just think it outshines the Spelling Bee.

Which event do you prefer? What non-sport event did I overlook?

Dropping Names

Just got an email from my buddy:

Last night I was at the bar at this party I went to, some lady hands me some drinks and asks me to give them to the guy behind me. I turn around and hand them to none other than my fantasy league tight end. The one and only Jeremy Shockey..."

Pure 'Cane

Last week, Bill Simmons pointed his readers to The Miami Herald, which has been following high school linbacker Willie Williams' recruiting journeys.

Read about his recruiting trips to Florida State, Auburn and Miami. As Simmons said, "I couldn't possibly describe what's happening here."

He just committed to Miami today, and appropriately enough, is also the subject of a criminal investigation.

Read all of the articles in order and then tell me that he really got a 1070 on the SAT. Is it out of 2400 now or something?

Race and Baseball

One of the hotter baseball topics on the Internet in the last two days has been race in baseball. AthleticsNation has been taking a lot of heat in his comments for pointing out that the A's are predominantly white team, and many a site has been talking about Ellis Burks' return to Boston as the team's attempt to redeem its racist past. Bronx Banter and Bambino's Curse (among others) each address this, and Ed Cossette of Curse points us towards the NPR article, The Boston Red Sox and Racism, which is an interesting read.

I'm not sure where any of this is going, but it's an odd coincidence that I'm stumbling on these articles all at once.

My First Game

Here's the box score and play-by-play for the first A's game I can remember attending, in 1986.

My dad took me and Matt, a neighborhood kid, to the Saturday afternoon game. There wasn't much of a crowd for the A's-Jays matchup, featuring two teams that finished a combined 25.5 games out of the playoffs. I remember starting out in the first deck down the left field line, just under the overhang of the second deck. After a few innings, we were able to move down behind home plate, no more than 15 rows back.

The A's won the game 2-0, with four pitchers combining for a 2-hitter. Notable events/appearances (for me anyway) included 2 of Dave Kingman's 1,816 career strikeouts (ninth all time), Jose Canseco as a rookie (getting heckled by the home crowd, no less), one of Dave Stewart's 12 relief appearances as an Athletic, Carney Lansford playing first base and Tony LaRussa in his first month as the A's manager.

The differences between my first game and today's games are remarkable. As everyone knows, offense has exploded. In 1986, only one AL team cracked 5 runs per game, and in 2003 five AL teams eclipsed that mark.

While offense has exploded, the average fan's access to the live product has dwindled. In '86, we were able to waltz right down behind home plate. Last year, I went to a game at Yankee Stadium and was handed stubs for front row tickets behind home plate for the final two innings. The ushers barely allowed us into the seats -- Even though we had the right tickets, they knew we didn't pay for them. Besides increasing prices, the teams are more rigidly enforcing the rules that protect those prices.

We've come a long way from yesterday's brand of small-ball, fan-friendly baseball to today's baseball machine that produces revenue and runs. Where will the next twenty years of baseball take us?

Beats me, but I'm ready to go along for the ride. Let's just get this next season started already...

Does anyone else remember their first baseball game? Tell me about it.

Bizarro A's

This past Sunday, Athletics Nation brought up the idea of the Twilight Zone A's, with all the position players the A's lost over the last two-plus years.

"Here, things have changed and the Athletics are suddenly a team that has retained past players and discarded the known current quantities." (Salaries ignored)

I took a look at these same lineups from a (quick and dirty) Established Win Shares Level perspective. My method only looks at the last two years instead of the last three, simply because that's the only data I had readily at hand.

Bizarro A's:
Johnny Damon - 19.5 Win Shares
Ray Durham - 18
Jason Giambi - 31
Miguel Tejada - 28.5
Eric Hinske - 17
Jose Guillen - 11
Terrence Long - 11.5
Ramon Hernandez - 15.5
Angel Berroa - 16
Total - 292.5 (Translates to 56 Wins)

Actual A's:
Mark Kotsay - 18 Win Shares
Mark Ellis - 16
Eric Chavez - 25
Jermaine Dye - 7.5
Erubiel Durazo - 13.5
Bobby Kielty - 13.5
Scott Hatteberg - 15
Damian Miller - 10
Bobby Crosby - 8 (This one's a rough guess)
Total - 253 (Translates to 43 Wins)

That's a difference of 13 wins, which could potentially be the difference between 97 wins and 84 (assuming the pitching staffs are equal). Thirteen wins could be the difference between being in the hunt for the best record in baseball and missing the wildcard by 7 games. All other things being equal, I'd take the Bizarro A's.

Now that I feel bad about bashing AthleticsNation, let me point you towards his latest, Foulke You, You Foulking Foulke. I totally agree with him here that signing Zito, Mulder, Hudson and Chavez is infinitely more important than getting stuck with a reliever on the decline.

What I'm Working On

I'm currently working on two things:

(1) 2003 Minor League Runs Created for the A's
See similar analysis on No Pepper, the raindrops, and RedsFaithful's Baseball Blog.

(2) 2004 MLB Predictions based on 2003 Win Shares and player movement.
Check out the beginning of a similar analysis on BaseballCrank.

Now, I just need to get it done. If only this whole "job" thing didn't require so much time....

Senator Tom Brady

Smoking Gun has a great piece about Tom Brady's political history. Despite being invited to the State of the Union, he's never voted.

And I'm sure he's not alone in that regard among NFL players.

Very Cool

Check out this post from Will Carroll about the Met's new "Stathead," Ben Baumer. Be sure to scroll down through the comments and notice that Ben himself actually got involved.

I think it's great that this type of exchange is happening at all. I certainly can't imagine Dan Marino reading and responding to a post about his hiring in Miami.

And good luck to Ben! Check out the message from him on his site. I can't say I'm with him on the whole "put the Mets back on top" sentiment, but you've gotta love another team seeing the light. Let's see if they listen to him...

East Coast Agony

Great post over on East Coast Agony, mostly ripping on John "Charcoal" Burkett:

[T]he only thing that makes me more excited than the prospect of the Sox all getting a few turns at Burkett is the thought of all the Sox getting a few turns at Burkett while I get a lap dance.

Instead, I was by far the most miserable Fenway ticketholder of the day. Bad times.

Comparing Pitching Staffs

On BallParkAnalysis.com, Jason Moyer has a nice comparison of the top pitching staffs using Win Shares.

In one of Jayson Stark's recent articles, he discusses the same subject. While entertaining and well written, Stark's methodology leaves a little to be desired.

In order to help you argue it next time you're hanging around some tavern with about 11 hours to kill, we surveyed a bunch of general managers, executives and scouts this week.

"No one (else) has four starters who can be classified as No. 1 or No. 2's." ... "Added a veteran leader (Clemens) and haven't had a left-hander (Pettitte) of that quality since Hampton." ... "Might have as strong No. 5 depth pool as any team in your survey." ... "Age and health of Clemens and Pettite are the only concerns here. Pettitte's elbow scares me."

Six Degrees...

David Pinto's latest BaseballMusings post about Insurance, points us to Rob Neyer's article, "Pudge, Maddux Not Exactly Bargains," which points us to Bill Madden's article "Get Off Mets' Back."

Pinto sums it up as follows:

So it may not be smarter GM's or owners or collusion that's causing the soft free-agent market. It may just be that insurers are unwilling to take on the risk. Who would have thought it?

Koufax and Drama

Absolutely great post on Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT about Sandy Koufax' performance in Game 7 of the 1965 World Series with a (mostly) play-by-play account of the game.

I'm afraid to admit that I got the chills just reading the blow-by-blow recap of a game that took place 38+ years ago. And no, my chills have nothing to do with the weather outside, which is currently quoted on weather.com as (-17) degrees in NYC (with the wind chill).

Daubach Backlash

Todd is none too happy with my take on the Daubach signing:

I completely disagree with your Daubach comments. A few years back, when the Sox were mathematically out of the race on the last day of the season, Jimy Williams asked the starters if they wanted to sit out a game of the double header. Most of them volunteered, much to the chagrin of the two guys who refused to sit. One of them was Trot Nixon, the undisputed leader of that team, and the other was his good friend Brian Daubach. He's the guy that's always standing and yelling at the top of the dugout steps in a close game, whether he is playing or not. Sure, the impact that his kind of energy and passion has on a team is hard to support with empirical evidence, but there is a reason why the terms chemistry and leadership are talked about so much in sports. Championship teams usually have them. And on a team with guys like Pedro, Manny, and Nomar, superstars that don't really shoulder the leadership burden, a guy like Daubach is invaluable. What do they lose in signing him to a minor league deal?

And the fans love him. He is the passionate, team oriented role player, in a city that truly appreciates those kinds of guys. You see him out at the bars in Boston, usually talking to one of the youngest and hottest ladies in the place, and you just have to smile. He's not great looking, not tremendously athletic, and nobody's sure why that passion doesn't translate into a rigorous off-the-field regimen, but the fans love him anyway. When most of the people at Fenway look out on the field and think of the player they once were (or even speak of it quite loudly), they may want to think of Manny or Nomar, of monsterous home runs or five tool talent. But in their hearts most of them know that they were probably more like Brian Daubach. And that's a good thing.

Bambino's Curse is another Red Sox fan that's high on this chemistry idea - and high on Daubach. He says it well here:

While there is no statistical veracity to it, I think a metric for "good karma" can hold its own next to "win shares." And Brian Daubach's good karma number is very high. (emphasis added)

I'm surprised that the enlightened Bill James-powered Red Sox front office would buy into this, but as Todd points out, it wasn't too expensive.

Yankees, Clemens, Draft Picks

"Unfortunately... I think things are going to get tougher"
-Brian Cashman in October, courtesy of The Olympian.

"We don't care about draft picks"
-Anonymous Yankee official in Bob Klapisch's latest article.

Hmmm. I think Quote #2 goes a long way towards explaining Quote #1. They really should care about draft picks (they can afford them!), and they should have offered arbitration to Clemens. Is there any downside to offering arbitration in this situation? Any at all?

Update: Billy, a Yankees fan, points out that if the Yankees offered arbitration and Clemens declined, the Yankees wouldn't have been able to re-sign him for a year. I guess the Yankees wanted to bring Roger back mid-season when Kevin Brown's arm fell off.

Update #2 Looks like Billy was incorrect. Eugene Freedman, on Baseball Primer, offers a great explanation of the rules.

"If the player does not accept arbitration the team may not negotiate with or sign the player from January 8 through May 1."

Which brings me back to my original question, why not offer arbitration?

Roger the "Dodger"

John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle points out that, "Mike Piazza certainly took note of Clemens' unretirement..."

Not just Piazza, but everyone in New York is probably looking forward to Clemens getting beaned as he bats in the National League. Mets fans hate him for hitting Piazza and the Yankees fans hate him for being a "traitor."

A popular question is, "I wonder if Clemens will change his style now that he has to pick up a bat?" But does he really live up to his reputation of hitting more batters than the average pitcher? And is stepping into the batter's box really a deterrent for NL pitchers? Are they less likely to hit batters than AL pitchers? Are National League "head-hunters" more likely to get hit by pitches themselves?

(I'm sure this has been addressed elsewhere, but I'd rather do the thinking than just point you somewhere else on this one.)

Does Roger Clemens hit more batters than the average pitcher?
Nope. In 2003, the average AL pitcher hit 10 batters per 1,000 batters faced (BFP), while Clemens hit only 5.7 per 1,000 BFP. Maybe Clemens has mellowed in his old age -- he must have hit more batters earlier in his career, right? Right, but not that many more. Over his career, Clemens has hit about 8 batters per 1,000 BFP. He's really not that reckless.

Do NL pitchers hit fewer batters than their AL counterparts?
Eh... sorta. National League pitchers hit 9.6 batters per 1,000 BFP, slightly less than the AL's 10. That works out to about .72 HBP per AL game and .68 HBP per NL game, a marginal difference.

Do NL "head-hunters" get hit by a lot of pitches themselves?
Yes. Eighty-two National League pitchers made at least 10 starts in 2003, and they averaged about 9 HBP/1,000 BFP. The pitchers who hit more batters than expected ("Headhunters") were hit by pitches themselves once every 224 plate appearances, while the "more gentle" pitchers were only hit half as often (once every 487 PA).

The lesson learned: If you hit too many batters in the NL, expect to get thrown at yourself. Unless you're from Texas...

Kerry Wood hit an historic 21 batters this past year, the highest since Tom Murphy in 1969 (and no pitcher has hit more than 21 batters since 1921!). Meanwhile, opposing pitchers retaliated on Wood exactly zero times. He didn't get hit by a pitch in any of his 70 plate appearances.

Another hard-throwin' Texan, Nolan Ryan also managed to avoid the beanball -- but for his whole career. He didn't get hit by even one pitch in nearly 1,000 career plate appearances.

Since Clemens doesn't hit too many batters, I don't expect him to get thrown at all that often. And even if he did hit a lot of batters, I think his opposing pitchers would be unlikely to throw at him -- something about large Texans bringing the heat must frighten off the rest of the league. Well, that and the Robin Ventura incident.

Fun with Translations

Elephants in Oakland has a great little piece about Eric Byrnes' adventures in the Dominican(?) league in both Spanish and English. The first translation is great - "a quadrangular one by the left garden" is apparently Google for "big fly to left." Good times.

Vlad the Impaler

Well, ESPN is reporting that the Angels signed Vlad Guerrero for 5 years, $70M. That smells like trouble for the AL West. The Angels' have added Kelvim Escobar, Bartolo Colon, Jose Guillen and now Vladimir. Meanwhile, they lost Brad Fullmer, Scott Spezio, Shawn Wooten and Benji Gil.

The Angels won 77 games last year, which translates to 231 Win Shares. The departing players are taking 24 Win Shares (from 2003) with them, but the incoming players are bringing 67. That's a net gain of 43 Win Shares, or 14 Wins. Assuming everyone on the Angels plays the same in 2004 (a very risky assumption), the Angels should win about 91 games, which does not bode well for the rest of the AL West.

I'm With the Sports Guy on This One

Sports Guy hit this nail on the head:

Guy In Danger of Being Overexposed: Ray Lewis
All right, let's tone it down just a little next season - maybe by four miked games, 10 halftime features, eight opening promos, six pregame dances and 160 incredulous announcer chuckles. Let's scale this baby back. Who's with me?

Update on Yesterday's AP Sports Gaffe

Poynter Online's Jim Romenesko has an item about the list of sports-celeb phone numbers that was distributed yesterday.

"It was something that went out that wasn't intended to go out." -Jack Stokes, AP spokesman.

Oh really? You didn't mean to publish that list? Shocking!

Someone's Getting Fired at AP Sports

I just got an email forward saying, "The AP Sports desk accidentally emailed out there [sic] sports rolodex today to other newsies."

The email then contains a list of over 700 phone numbers for sports figures, including athletes like Kareem Abdul-Jabar, Yogi Berra and Roger Clemens. The list also has phone numbers for Commissioners Gary Bettman, Paul Tagliabue and Bud Selig. That's just the beginning. There are over 700 phone numbers.

From what I can tell, these numbers are legit, and the AP is going to have to fire someone. Too bad, Butch. Too bad.

Update: Here's a "sanitized" version of the list:
> Aaron Hank 404-xxx-1348; 404-xxx-7550 (h)
> ABC Radio 456-5185
> Abdul-Jabbar Kareem 213-xxx-1806
> Abraham Seth 212-xxx-1648; 212-xxx-8620 (h)
> AC Nielsen 708-6949; 708-7548
> Adams Alan 416-xxx-1019 (h)
> Adcock Joe 318-xxx-4887
> Albert Marv 212-xxx-6330
> Alderson Sandy 510-xxx-4900; 510-xxx-1828; 415-xxx-6345 (h)
> Alfano, Pete (ATP) 904-xxx-8000
> Allen Doug (NFLPA) 202-xxx-2215; 703-xxx-1528 (h)
> Allen Mel 203-xxx-4440 (h)
> Alliss Peter 011-xxx-2873-5669
> Anderson Dick 305-xxx-0440; 305-xxx-0400 (h)
> Anderson Ottis 305-xxx-2524
> Anderson Sparky 805-xxx-2060 (h)
> Andretti Mario 215-xxx-5118
> Andros Dee 503-xxx-2370; 503-xxx-5886 (h)
> Angelos Peter 410-xxx-6210; 410-xxx-0100; 410-xxx-4429 (h)
> Antonucci John 303-xxx-0200; 216-xxx-2660 h-8 p.m.
> AP Broadcast 800-368-5915; 800-424-8804
> AP Radio 800-368-5915
> Arbitron 212-887-1318
> Archibald Tiny 212-xxx-6662 (h)
> Argovitz Jerry 713-xxx-5771
> Argyros George 714-xxx-4900
> Armato Leonard (agent for Shaq, atty for Kareem) 213-xxx-6666
> Arnold Jennifer � 212-xxx-7202; xxx-0444 (h)
> Arum Bob 702-xxx-3232; 702-xxx-9323 (h)
> Atlanta Organizing Committee (Bob Brennan) 404-224-1996
> Auerbach Red 202-xxx-4722; 202-xxx-8312 (h)
> Autry Gene 213-xxx-5672 or 5676; 818-xxx-9208 (h); 619-xxx-2155 Palm
> Springs
> Baer Larry 415-xxx-2505; 415-xxx-4102 (h)
> Bailey Wilford 205-xxx-9723 (h); 205-xxx-2278
> Baker Buddy 704-xxx-2763.
> Baker Buck � 704-xxx-9206.
> Baker Dusty 415-xxx-9531 (h)
> Baker Terry 503-xxx-1440
> Bando Sal 414-xxx-3353; 602-xxx-3370 (h)
> Banks Ernie 818-xxx-2827; 818-xxx-4388; 310-xxx-7268
> Barger Carl 412-xxx-8807 (h)
> Barnett Dick xxx-5311
> Barrow Joe Louis Jr 303-xxx-9592
> Bartholomay Bill 312-xxx-0759; 312-xxx-5634 (h)
> Bavasi Bill 714-xxx-7261; 714-xxx-0259 (h); 714-xxx-0452 (h)
> Bavasi Peter 201-xxx-2697
> Baylor Don 619-xxx-1925
> Beathard, Bobby 619-xxx-9314
> Beban Gary 213-xxx-3531
> Beeston Paul 416-xxx-1220; 416-xxx-1472 (h)

Josh Beckett as a Wee Lad

Aaron's Baseball Blog posted a great little article from Ryan Levy about watching/playing against Josh Beckett in high school. Good times. "How I Remember Josh Beckett"

Another Closer for the A's

ESPN's Rumormill is reporting that the A's might still be pursuing Ugueth Urbina to fill out their bullpen. Given Rhodes' track record as a closer (he has none), this could be great. I'd rather have Rhodes setting up Ugie than have Rhodes closing games.

Red Sox Aren't So Smart After All

The Red Sox re-acquired Brian Daubach today. Without looking at the numbers, let me just say that Brian Daubach stinks! This move (along with the signing of Pokey Reese) probably undoes all of the good work Theo Epstein has done in getting Schilling and Foulke.

Well... maybe not. But the only categories "Dauber" is likely to contribute in are "Ugly Strike-outs" and "Ugly Faces."

Win Shares and a Terrible Trade

Before I get into the mis-management of the Phillies in the early- to mid-eighties, let me point you towards BaseballGraphs.com's explanation of Bill James' Win Shares. In short, a team's winning percentage is tied to the number of runs scored and runs allowed. And from there, it's only a "short" leap to tie individual performance to wins. Each hit or (hit prevented) is like a fraction of a run, which is a fraction of a win... Anyway, three win shares is equivalent to one win.

Onto the trade...

Between the 1981 and 1982 seasons the Phillies traded Ryne Sandberg (a prospect at the time) and an over the hill Larry Bowa to the Cubs for for Ivan DeJesus, and it was an unadulterated failure from the Phillies perspective.

After 1982, Ryno went on to put up 346 career Win Shares (according to Bill James) for the Cubbies, while Larry Bowa contributed 28. On the Phillies side, Ivan DeJesus was worth only 34 win shares to the Phillies before being traded again.

This time, the Phillies gave up DeJesus and Bill Campbell for the Cardinals' Dave Rucker. DeJesus and Campbell combined for 5 Win Shares for the Cardinals before being released, while Rucker gave the Phillies only 3.

So, the Phillies gave up 379 Win Shares and got only 37 in exchange. That's bad business.

More Curling

From the Canadian Rules of Curling:

Curlers' Code of Ethics
I will play the game with a spirit of good sportsmanship.
I will conduct myself in an honourable manner both on and off the ice.
I will never knowingly break a rule, but if I do, I will divulge the breach.
I will take no action that could be interpreted as an attempt to intimidate or demean my opponents, teammates or officials.
I will interpret the rules in an impartial manner, always keeping in mind that the purpose of the rules is to ensure that the game is played in an orderly and fair manner.
I will humbly accept any penalty that the governing body at any level of curling deems appropriate, if I am found in violation of the Code of Ethics or rules of the game.

and

Fair Play
Fair Play begins with the strict observance of the written rule; however, in most cases, Fair Play involves something more than even unfailing observance of the written rule.
The observance of the spirit of the rules, whether written or unwritten, is important.
Fair Play results from measuring up to one's own moral standards while engaged in competition.
Fair Play is consistent demonstration of respect for teammates and opponents, whether they are winning or losing.
Fair Play is consistent demonstration of respect for officials, an acceptance of their decisions and a steadfast spirit of collaboration with them.
Sportsmanlike behaviour should be demonstrated both on and off the ice. This includes modesty in victory and composure in defeat.

It's too bad American sports don't have anything like this. I'd love to see Terrell Owens or Joe Horn show modesty in victory and composure in defeat. Fresh Angles had a good little article a while back about the Era of the Ego in the NFL.

Curling

Watched curling yesterday during the tail end of the Colts' victory over the hapless Broncos. I'm afraid to admit that it was damn entertaining. The riveting action on Fox Sports World kept my roommate around for the highlights of the World Dart Championship, which were also entertaining.

Double, Double Toil and Trouble

Former major league baseball player Ivan Calderon was killed recently.

My one memory of Ivan ("ee-von") is of a grand slam he hit against the A's in the late 80's. I was sitting with my parents out in the left field bleachers in Oakland and the fellow sitting next to me caught the ball. That's pretty much the closest I've been to a batted ball at a professional game and I'll admit that I didn't move an inch as it headed towards me. I'll bet Steve Bartman wishes he had reacted the same way.

UPDATE: I've just spent the last 20 minutes trying to figure out the exact date of the Calderon granny. The key factors that I remember from the game are as follows: Day game (saturday or sunday), Calderon's GS, Dave Parker was on the A's (his "non-HR" over the right field foul pole cost us the game), White Sox won the game, and it was a relatively high scoring affair.

Assuming my recollections are correct, the game was played on either 4/17/88 or 4/8/89. (That's the best I can do without checking the microfiche.)

Calderon's stats
Dave Parker's stats
1988 ChiSox Schedule
1989 ChiSox Schedule

Drunken Buffoon

Click on Namath's interview from this page and watch the whole thing. It just gets better and better.

Quality Pitching

Here are the A's team ERA for the last three years (AL rank in parentheses):
2001 -- 3.59 (2)
2002 -- 3.68 (1)
2003 -- 3.63 (1)

Based on the moves the A's have made, I'm projecting (loosely) that the team ERA should be around 3.47 in 2004. That would be the best team ERA over the last three years and ought to make up for the A's somewhat woeful offense (yes, "somewhat woeful" is a generous description).

Where we're going, we don't need Rhodes

...well, yes we do.

Looks like the A's signed Arthur Rhodes on Thursday. This, combined with the trade for Chris Hammond and the re-signing of much-maligned Ricardo Rincon, should really shore up the bullpen.

And the trade for Mark Redman could potentially reinforce an already dominant starting rotation. (The A's need to work out a 2004 contract for Redman by the end of Saturday in order to keep him.)

With all of these moves the A's are making, I'd argue that they have one of the best all-around pitching staffs in the American League, if not the best.

We still have work to do on the offense, but at the same time, I think the A's have really done a lot to improve the offense already. I think Bobby Kielty and Mark Kotsay are going to be great for the A's - better than T-Long and Chris Singleton, anyway. I'm very optimistic about the A's chances in 2004, in case you hadn't noticed.

Why I dislike Ricardo Rincon

I dislike Ricardo Rincon. His numbers with the A's really aren't all that bad. In about a year and a half, he's pitched 71 innings with a 3.21 ERA. That's fine. I can't complain about that.

BUT... his performance in the ALCS was miserable, or more accurately, made me miserable. In Game 1 of the ALDS against Boston, Rincon came in with two outs and one on in the top of the 7th inning. He promptly gave up a two-run HR to Todd Walker.

Then in game 4 at Fenway, Rincon came in to start the bottom of the sixth. He promptly gave up a HR to Todd Walker.

I suppose I could forgive RR if we won the series, but we didn't. And I guess I could forgive him if I hadn't seen the second collapse in person - but I was there in Boston for game 4, with maybe three other A's fans in the entire stadium. And I guess I could forgive Rincon if Todd Walker were some kind of home run hitting machine, but he's only hit 71 HR in his 8-year career.

Maybe it's not fair to blame Ricardo for losing the Series, but that's how I feel.

Oakland Options

So far, I've heard three main options for the A's closer situation:

1) Closer by committee with Chad Bradford, Ricardo Rincon, et al.
I'm not against the closer by committee per se, but I'm against a committee that includes Ricardo Rincon.

2) Move one of their younger starters, like a Rich Harden, into the bullpen as a closer.
Moving Harden to the 'pen might be a viable option, but I have no idea. It worked great for Eric Gagne in LA...

3) Acquire someone, whether it's Ugueth Urbina, Arthur Rhodes or *ghasp* Armando Benitez.
I'd love to have Ugie, who's full name is Ugueth Urtain Urbina Villarreal. Urbina had a 1.41 ERA with the World Champion Florida Marlins in the second half of 2003, and I'd love to see that in an A's uniform. But there are no circumstances under which I'd be happy to see Armando Benitez playing for the A's. None.

Anyway, I'm hoping for Ugie and willing to settle for Rhodes or Harden as our closer.

Interesting Comparison

The Red Sox' top three starters this coming year will be Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling and Derek Lowe. Over the last two years, those three have combined for 1,236 innings and a 2.97 ERA.

The A's top three starters this coming year will be Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson and Barry Zito. Over the last two years, those three have combined for 1,236 innings and a 2.97 ERA.

The Yankees' top three starters (probably) will be Mike Mussina, Javier Vazquez and Kevin Brown. Over the last two years, those three have combined for 1,166 innings and a 3.48 ERA.

And then consider this: The Red Sox' top 3 starters will be a combined one-hundred years old, the Yankees' top 3 will be a combined 101 and the A's big three will be a combined 80 years old. Which threesome would you rather have?

I'm sticking with the youngsters. Now all we need is a little offense and a closer.

Bad Weekend for the A's

...But it could have been worse.

Keith Foulke signed with the Red Sox for 4 years/$26M and Miguel Tejada signed with the Orioles for 6 years and $72M.

There are two positive aspects of these deals:

1) Neither of our two free agent defectors went to an AL West rival.
2) Because we offered them arbitration, we're going to get draft picks - four of them I think in the first two rounds.

That's small consolation, but it certainly could have been worse.

Lack of Niners Coverage

I've got the Niner's logo up top there, but I've hardly uttered a word about them. I've been meaning to discuss their season - I just haven't gotten around to it. It's almost too depressing to comment on. How can a team lose to Arizona in late October and then beat them by 36 points a mere six weeks later? It's just a sad state of affairs. Anyway, I'm looking forward to dissecting the season at some point.

AL West

Good news today for the Angels, who signed Bartolo Colon away from the White Sox. And good news for the Mariners, who signed Eddie Guardado away from the Twins.

This news, of course, is bad news for the A's who have to face these two divisional rivals 19 times apiece each year.

And it's doubly-bad news for this reason:

The loss of Guardado means the Twins have lost their top two relievers, LaTroy Hawkins to the Chicago Cubs and now Guardado, to free agency in the span of a week. They have some money now, though, to sign a free agent closer or acquire one in a trade. They expect to actively pursue that at the winter meetings this weekend.

A is for Abritration

The A's offered arbitration to Miguel Tejada, Keith Foulke and Ricardo Rinc�n before today's deadline. I guess there's a glimmer of hope that we may resign Tejada and Foulke, but more likely, this means we'll get compensatory draft picks when they leave.

USC Got Screwed

The final BCS Standings are out for college football, and for the second time in three years, a team that couldn't win their conference championship will be given an opportunity to win the National Championship in college football. Two years ago, Nebraksa played in the BCS championship game despite finishing 3rd in their conference. This year, Oklahoma makes the championship game despite taking an all-around whupping in the Big Twelve championship.

So, both human polls (coaches and writers) have USC as #1, LSU as #2 and Oklahoma as #3. But USC gets the big snub and will play in the Rose Bowl. We can only hope that USC beats Michigan and shares the national title with the winner of the LSU-Oklahoma Sugar. Hopefully then, we'll be another step closer to a college football playoff, which would be just about the best thing since sliced bread.

Showdown Sunday?

ESPN is calling today "Showdown Sunday," as there are a lot of great matchups with playoff implications. Here are the fourteen NFL games today at either 1pm or 4pm EST:

Favorite / Underdog / Combined Record
Tennessee vs. Indianapolis, (18-6)
Denver vs. Kansas City, (18-6)
New England vs. Miami, (18-6)
Philadelphia vs. Dallas, (17-7)
Minnesota vs. Seattle, (15-9)
Baltimore vs. Cincinnati, (14-10)
Green Bay vs. Chicago, (11-13)
New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay, (11-13)
**Buffalo vs. New York, (10-14)
**New York vs. Washington, (8-16)
Jacksonville vs. Houston, (8-16)
San Francisco vs. Arizona, (8-16)
Pittsburgh vs. Oakland, (7-17)
Detroit vs. San Diego, (6-18)

For some reason, the only games on TV in New York today are the Jet's and Giant's games. The only "showdowns" I'm going to see today are going to be battles of ineptitude and incompetence. (So far in the first 10 minutes of the Giants-Washington game, the G-Men have already lost a fumble, missed a FG and trail 3-0. Woo hoo!)

I understand that the networks have to show the local teams, but why can't they also show us a good game? I'm stuck watching two of the worst games with four of the worst teams when there are 4-6 arguably great games, in terms of match-up. Shame on you NFL, CBS, FOX and New York.

A's Rumors

There are two A's-related updates on ESPN's Rumormill (Subscription Required).

The first piece is about Tejada:

Dec. 5 - The Seattle Times reports the Mariners have offered Tejada a three-year contract at $24 million to $25 million, with an option for a fourth year. That offer comes on the heels of the report out of New York that the Mets have made a three-year, $21 million offer to Kaz Matsui, the Mariners' other shortstop target.

However, Tejada's agent told the Orange County Register the shortstop really like[s] Anaheim, and the Tigers have said they are prepared to overpay to lure a player such as Tejada. The Orioles plan to pursue Tejada, as well, but have have said they will wait until after Sunday's arbitration deadline to make a formal offer.

The Cubs and Phillies also have been mentioned in connection with the former MVP, and the A's haven't given up hope of re-signing him, either. Oakland is waiting to see what kind of market develops before making a proposal.

The second rumor suggests the A's may be working on a solution to their catcher problem.

Dec. 5 - The L.A. Times reports the A's are interested in acquiring [Paul] Lo Duca in exchange for Jermaine Dye and cash to help defray Dye's $11 million salary. Lo Duca made only $2.6 million last year, and the A's could use a front-line catcher after dealing Ramon Hernandez to San Diego for Mark Kotsay.

It will probably take a mirable for the A's to keep Tejada and acquire Lo Duca while shedding Dye's contract, but if anyone can do it - it's Billy Beane.

The Bidding is Now Open

Seattle made an offer to Miguel Tejada. At 3 years and $24M, the A's might actually have a shot at resigning him. Should be interesting to see what happens. I'd hate to see our MVP go to a division rival.

Who's on First?

With Nick Johnson gone to Canada, who's going to play first base for the Yankees? Jason Giambi never looked totally comfortable in the field, and I would be shocked if he played anywhere near 162 games at first.

Another issue for the Yanks could be this quote from Omar Minaya, GM of the Expos:

I think Vazquez is one of the better young pitchers in the game. When he goes out there, he gives you everything. He's got one of the higher pitch counts in the game. That means he wants to be out there.

He was among the most durable starters in the majors, ranking behind only Randy Johnson in total pitches thrown and pitches per start through the first five months.

Parade of Yankee Acquisitions Continues

Bob Klapisch points out that since the Red Sox made their Curt Schilling trade, the Yankees have gone wild. They've agreed to terms with Gary Sheffield (3 yrs, $36M), re-signed Aaron Boone (1 yr, $6M), signed Tom Gordon (2 yrs, $7.5M), re-signed Felix Heredia (2 yrs, $4M), signed Paul Quantrill (2 yrs, 7M) and now they've traded to acquire one of the best young pitchers in the game. Sure, the Yanks gave up Nick Johnson, but in Javier Vazquez, they got what Klapisch is calling "a younger version of Curt Schilling."

You can't argue the fact that both the Yanks and Sox are improving their teams dramatically with these moves.

What you can argue is whether or not this is good for baseball. While it may be entertaining to watch this "blood feud" boil over, fans of the other 28 teams can't feel too good about (arguably) the best teams getting better.

Yankee-Induced Nausea

This article from The Onion has already made the rounds, but as Peter Gammons points out, "George Steinbrenner wants to prove that he can bring that famous piece in The Onion... to life and take it to Broadway."

It's a little sickening to look at the Yankees' 2003 salaries (scroll to bottom of page) and realize that they're adding even more salary for the coming season. And it's amazing that my A's can even begin to compete with the Yanks on only one-third of their budget.

Interesting Note #1: The 2003 Yankees paid just over $10M in '03 for Sterling Hitchcock and Jeff Weaver. The two combined for 209 innings and a 5.86 ERA. That's just terrible.

Interesting Note #2: With $10M, the 2003 A's could afford Barry Zito, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder (a combined 658 innings and a 3.03 ERA) and still have enough money left over to afford Eric Chavez, a gold glove third baseman with 29 HR and 101 RBI!

The message here is that the A's have a razor thin margin of error when making personnel decisions, while the Yankees have a Cecil Fielder-sized margin of error, as evidenced by the Weaver/Hitchcock contracts.

More on this later...

Hot Closer Market

With LaTroy Hawkins signing in Chicago, Tom Gordon signing with the Yankees, Guardado possibly staying in Minnesota and Foulke all but conceded to Boston... the A's are running out of options at closer. Here's hoping we (A's fans) don't get stuck with Ricardo Rincon.

Wonderlic

This article in the NY Times about pre-employment testing makes me think back to Akili Smith, former Oregon Duck and first round draft pick of the Cincinnati Bengals in 1999.

I was under the impression that Akili was one of the dumbest players in the NFL, but my brief research this afternoon showed otherwise. While Akili did score a meager 13 the first time he took the Wonderlic test, he pulled out a 37 on his second attempt and 27 on his third. Looks like he was at least smart enough to either cheat, guess better or pull his head out of his ass.

The lowest score I could find came from another Bengal draft pick:

In 1997 the Bengals drafted the "dumbest" player in the draft, and that's no joke... Reinard Wilson who was regarded as an exceptional defensive end from Florida State University... scored the lowest of all 300 athletes given the [Wonderlic IQ] test with a score of 4 out of a possible 50 on the Wonderlic IQ test.

The national average is 21.4, and the minimum for Mechanical Engineers, just for comparison's sake, is 30.

NFL Game of the Week

In today's best game (Patriots 38, Colts 34), Willie McGinest made two game-saving plays in the final minutes of the game.

The second "McG Play of the Game" was the tackle of Edgerrin James on 4th and goal from the 1-yard line with :18 remaining.

The first "McG Play of the Game," just a few plays earlier, doesn't show up in the play-by-play, but it was just as important.

Peyton Manning and his no-huddle offense were driving the Colts towards a go-ahead TD. Indy had all the momentum and the Pats, with no timeouts, had no way to stop the clock (or the Colts!) until McGinest went down with an "injured" ankle. With the clock stopped for the "injury," Indy's offense lost their momentum, New England's defense regrouped and McGinest, after a "miraculous" recovery, made the game-saving tackle.

Faking an injury to stop the clock is one of the oldest tricks in the book. In fact, the NFL rulebook allows it!

A team cannot buy an excess time out for a penalty. However, a fourth time out is allowed without penalty for an injured player, who must be removed immediately.

Kudos to the Pats and McGinest for knowing the rules and taking advantage.

UPDATE:
Phillip B. Wilson of the Indianoplis Star isn't buying McGinest's story either.

"McGinest was so ecstatic, he ran down the middle of the field, his right arm raised with an index finger signifying 'No. 1.' He didn't favor the knee."