AndrewKoch.com

Ken Griffey Jr, Trickster

"Reds outfielder Ken Griffey Jr owed teammate Josh Fogg $1500 -- I'm guessing Fogg sold him a tendon -- so Junior paid him back in pennies."

KEN GRIFFEY JUNIOR IS, LIKE, TWELVE - With Leather

Brilliant!

Hilarious

YouTube - HARDBALL MADE EASY-Taking 1 For The Team (w/Carlos Zambrano)

h/t Paul DePodesta (!)

Man-Crushing on Bill James

Question: What statistical software do you use?
Bill James: Just Excel.

Bill James Answers All Your Baseball Questions - Freakonomics - Opinion - New York Times Blog

More EWSL

Baseball Crank published the 2008 AL West EWSL Report on Tuesday and the 2008 AL East EWSL Report today. Lots of interesting stuff in both of those.

Just to pull out a few nuggets, Crank is more realistic about the A's chances than I am, and his data suggests the Rays will have a really tough time living up to the Baseball Prospectus projections that have them winning 88-89 games.

It's EWSL Time

BaseballCrank has been publishing his EWSL series for each of the last few years, and he unveiled his first division projection of 2008 this week - AL Central.

There's a lot of good thought in the method and great analysis surrounding the output. I'm officially excited for the 2008 season, regardless of the A's bleak outlook - which I'm sure the Crank will document in excrutiating detail over the coming weeks.

Mitchell Report Falls Short

I've glanced through the "REPORT TO THE COMMISSIONER OF BASEBALL OF AN INDEPENDENT INVESTIGATION INTO THE ILLEGAL USE OF STEROIDS AND OTHER PERFORMANCE ENHANCING SUBSTANCES BY PLAYERS IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL." My impression was that George Mitchell and crew were really only able to get a couple people to really talk. They were then able to follow the new leads from the first interviews to unravel what you might call a steroid ring. But I have a hard time believing this is the only group of ballplayers to use steroids. In fact, the first page of the report admits as much:

We identify some of the players who were caught up in the drive to gain a competitive advantage through the illegal use of these substances. Other investigations will no doubt turn up more names and fill in more details...

I, like many others, had somehow expected a comprehensive list of people using performance enhancing drugs, so I am disappointed that the report listed so few people. There are certainly players named in the report whose careers will be judged differently now, but besmirching Roger Clemens' legacy isn't enough. I still want to know the full list of players on steroids and when they took them.

Don't Get Ahead of Yourself

Over at 6-4-2, they're celebrating the Angel's division title, and looking ahead to an admittedly bright future. But as a bitter A's fan, I take issue with the idea that Angels fans have seen "a division winner, year after (mostly) year."

The Angels have won the AL West three of the last four years, but before that, they hadn't won their division since 1986. And they won the 2004 division title by only a single measly game over the A's. Flip one game in the 2004 standings and the A's and Angels have split the last four division titles. Even without any revisionist history, the A's and Angels have each won the AL West three times in the last six years. That's hardly "a division winner, year after ... year."

And while the Angels do have an admirable farm system and quality young talent in their organization, success is no gimme. I say we hold off on crowning the Angels as AL West champions through 2015...

Great Baseball Tale

Brad Ziegler, a minor leaguer in the Oakland A's farm system, has been blogging over on AthleticsNation all season. In his most recent post, he pointed to a post from another minor leaguer: BaseballAmerica.com: Minors: Non-Prospect Diary: Dirk Hayhurst. It's a well-written post about how trivial baseball is and at the same time, how it can mean so much. Definitely worth the read.

I still can't explain why people treat us so special for putting on a baseball uniform. But in those few moments together, it didn't really matter--in those few moments, baseball made perfect sense.

There's Still Hope

Baseball Musings: Mixed Media Message

David Pinto points us towards a report that the MLB_DirecTV deal may not be exclusive after all. I hope that ends up being the case - and I hope Time Warner Cable doesn't screw me on this one the way they have with the NFL Network.

Baseball Crank Updates EWSL

I've long admired the work Baseball Crank has done on EWSL - Established Win Shares Level. I think it's a great way to take a look at the upcoming year using Win Shares. The basic idea is to look at a players Win Shares from the past three years to determine their Established Level, and then project their performance for the next year based on their age.

He's been looking back at the last few years of data and working to update the model. Here's his three part series:

Part I: 2006 EWSL Wrapup By Team
Part II: EWSL Rookie Adjustments
Part II: Age and EWSL, 2004-06

The whole series is worth a read. For A's fans in particular, it's interesting to look at Part I. Huston Street, Antonio Perez and Rich Harden are listed as the "Worst" 2006 performers for the Athletics. They under-performed relative to their age-adjusted EWSL. Why? For Harden, it was clearly the injuries. For Huston Street, it was probably nagging injuries as well. As for Antonio Perez, I think EWSL simply over-estimated his value.

But regardless of those shortcomings, the A's ended up doing slightly better than the EWSL model predicted. Frank Thomas was undoubtedly a big part of that, but the A's played pretty well last year across the board. It's encouraging to think about what the A's might be able to do this year with a healthy Bobby Crosby and a healthy Rich Harden. There are certainly unanswered questions swirling around the A's (Piazza's production, for example), but as an A's fan, I can't help but be optimistic.

MLB Just Spoiled My Day

I find this news extremely aggravating:

If you don't have DirectTV this year (or for the next seven years), you're not going to be able to order the MLB Extra Innings package, because DirectTV just paid $700 million for exclusive rights over the next seven years. It will also be the exclusive home to a 24-hour baseball channel.

In Case You Had Any Doubt, MLB Doesn't Care About You At All - Deadspin

I guess those of us who cannot possibly get DirecTV will be stuck staring at a low-res video feed on our computers for the duration of the baseball season. I used to be able to work on the computer while I was watching A's games, but I'm not sure how I'm going to be able to handle this. Do I have to get another laptop that I can connect to the TV? This whole thing is just miserable. Damn you, MLB!

TBS - Good News or Bad News?

Fox, TBS lead baseball's new 7-year TV deal

"Turner Broadcasting System also will televise 26 regular-season Sunday games in 2008 while eventually cutting back on its nationwide Atlanta Braves coverage."

I've got the MLB extra innings package, which gives me access to just about all of the MLB games on TV. The exceptions are for Fox's national broadcasts. The current blackout rules say, "due to the national exclusivity of both FOX and ESPN, there are no games available for distribution via this package on Saturday day or Sunday night, respectively."

So, the question is - will TBS' Sunday games prevent us from enjoying the rest of the Sunday games? And if they eliminate yet another day of the week from the MLB Extra Innings package (going from 6 days each week to only 5), will they also cut the price of the package by 16%?

(Of course they won't, but a guy can dream.)

Vin Scully is the Best

Over the weekend, a friend and I were lamenting the lack of quality baseball commentators on TV. We really couldn’t come up with anyone that was worth listening to – but we overlooked Vin Scully. I caught my first Scully/Dodgers game Monday night and it was a joy.

Scully is smooth, knowledgeable and fun to listen to. And he’s really not much of a homer. Scully couldn’t have been more excited to watch Greg Maddux twirl a gem for the Cubs. He kept marveling at how Maddux was teaching the Dodgers what pitching is all about – almost yelling out at times, “He might as well have a blackboard out on the mound with him” and, “These Dodgers should get a diploma after this lesson” (if you’ll forgive my paraphrasing). I can’t stand the Dodgers and I’ll never forgive them for 1988. But I love watching their games so I can listen to Scully. He’s an old fella’ but I hope he keeps covering baseball forever.

Scoring a Double Play?

Watching the A's-Yankees again tonight - and Michael Kay just said that a play would have been a 6-6-3 double play if Jeter hadn't bobbled the ball off his face. He said the same thing last night about a play where Jeter fielded a grounder, stepped on second for the first out and threw to first for the second out of a double play. 6-6-3?

Isn't that just a 6-3 double play? Am I crazy here?

(And kudos to Jeter for turning two consecutive playable ground balls to his left into baserunners.)

Bonds - Still a Hall of Famer

Baseball Toaster : Mike's Baseball Rants : Grin and Barry

[Barry] Bonds will now be asterisked and marginalized to death. Never mind that the man already had 411 home runs, 8 All-Star appearances, and three MVPs before he started taking steroids after 1998, when the writers allege that he started roiding. He was already a Hall of Famer, but now that will be forgotten.

That's an excellent point. A co-worker of mine wrote a paper, Modeling Election to the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame through the use of Genetic Algorithms in which he established that a player must meet 14 of 19 possible criteria (all listed in this post).

Based on those rules, Bonds became a Hall of Famer at the end of the 1997 season, after he'd hit 355 HR, scored 1145 Runs and brought his postseason slugging percent above .269 - And of course, that's before Bonds started 'roiding, allegedly.

Bonds & Steroids

SI.com - MLB - Shadows reveals truth behind Barry Bonds' steroid use - Tuesday March 7, 2006 1:57PM

Beginning in 1998 with injections in his buttocks of Winstrol, a powerful steroid, Barry Bonds took a wide array of performance-enhancing drugs over at least five seasons in a massive doping regimen that grew more sophisticated as the years went on, according to Game of Shadows, a book written by two San Francisco Chronicle reporters at the forefront of reporting on the BALCO steroid distribution scandal.

Barry Bonds is royally F-ed. I think we all knew this to be true in our heart of hearts, but seeing it laid out like this is something else. Bud Selig has to do something when faced with this information. This is no Jose Canseco tell-all

Fantastic Baseball Salary Applet

Marc forwards this fantastic tool. View salary by team, by player, highlight by position. Great way to see who's spending money and on whom.

(Can you call it a cartogram? I'm reminded of the great cartograms following the '04 election: Alternate views of the electoral map)

So, what does it say about the A's? Each of the following groups looks to be about even, salary-wise, at roughly $10 million (forgive my aggressive rounding):

Group 1 - Jason Kendall
Group 2 - Kotsay and Zito
Group 3 - Eric Chavez
Group 4 - Loaiza and Payton
Group 5 - Bradley, Ellis, Kennedy and Kielty
Group 6 - Witasick, Harden, Calero, Crosby, Haren, Frank Thomas, Melhuse, Dan Johnson, Blanton, Duchscherer, Ron Flores, Chad Gaudin, Antonio Perez, Marco Scutaro, Huston Street, Swisher and Matt Watson

It's fascinating to see the allocation of resources, the tremendous cost of Kendall and the great values found in the 63% of the team receiving only 17% of the money. Also funny to see the A's total payroll graphically lined up against the Yankees starting infield - well really just A-Rod, Jeter and Giambi, who earn the same $60 million that the entire A's team will earn this year.

Gammons Thanks Bloggers

ESPN.com - Gammons: Clubs looking for bullpen stability (Insiders Only?)

There cannot be a better, more thoughtful Internet journal than "Baseball Prospectus," which has the invaluable and unique resource of Will Carroll's "Under the Knife," bookmarked by every front office and media member. "Hardball Times" is daily must-reading, as well as "Baseball Analysts" and the "Baseball Think Factory." Now there are countless blogs, none better than David Pinto's "Baseball Musings," which also provide several significant tools.

To Joe Sheehan, Lee Sinins, David Pinto, Ron Shandler, Rob Neyer, all those tireless bloggers, thanks. You make my job far easier, and far more interesting. And changed the way we look at the game.

Great of Gammons to give some credit to the crowd, but odd that ESPN didn't link to any of the sites...

Release Point Consistency From BaseballAnalysts.com

I found Jeff Sullivan’s post yesterday on Baseball Analysts quite interesting: A Quantitative Approach to Studying Release Point Consistency

We know an awful lot about pitchers. We know how hard they throw, how many batters they strike out, what kinds of pitches they have, and whether their deliveries are fluid and easy or violent and rough. This is all objective and indisputable information that has a lot of value when it comes to projecting a pitcher's future health and success.

One thing we don't know much about, though, is the consistency of a pitcher's release point. The fact that we don't have a good way of measuring what's arguably the most important part of being a good pitcher is one of the more ironic twists of modern analysis. Sure, you can look at a bad curveball and say "he let go too early" or "he held on too long," but that's just one of a few thousand pitches that the guy's going to throw all year, so it doesn't tell you very much. What we need is a way to quantify the extent to which release points varies over a larger period of time for different pitchers.

I took a couple courses on digital signal processing in college. We worked mostly with audio, which only has one dimension, but many of the same techniques would likely work with two-dimensional images.

With the right person doing the programming, you could analyze each photo, normalize for zoom and pinpoint the location of the ball automatically. Not sure how you would normalize for differing CF camera angles from game to game, but it could probably be done.

Separately, I wonder how the study might be affected by the pitcher’s positioning on the rubber? Jeff, if you read this, did you notice whether the pitchers tended to start from the same spot on the mound over the course of a game?

Baseball Decision Maker

I'm not sure this tool makes any intuitive sense, and there's no way Grady Little would use this... But it looks kinda interesting: http://www.visual-io.com/baseball/

The tough part is that you can never go back and compare what the results would have been if you had made a different decision. So you'll never be able to test whether the Manager's gut feeling or the tool's suggestion is a better choice, will you?

(Thanks to marc for the link. And now marc, I'm getting to work.)

Hawk for Frick? God, no!

Frick Nominee Bio - Ken "Hawk" Harrelson

KEN HARRELSON: 29 years overall (Red Sox, 1975-81; White Sox, 1982-85, 90 - ; Yankees, 1987-88), the last 16 with the White Sox…The 2000 Illinois Sportscaster of the Year…Finished fourth campaign with color man Darrin Jackson after teaming with Tom Paciorek for 10 seasons from 1990-99…The Hawk's exuberant "YES" call and colorful nicknames have become familiar to Sox fans…Worked in the broadcast booth for the Sox from 1982-85, leaving to become executive vice president for baseball operations…After serving as the club's general manager for one season, he resigned to resume his broadcasting career…In NY, teamed with Spencer Ross in 1987 and Bobby Murcer in 1988…Also served as a broadcaster on The Baseball Network in 1994-95…Played major league baseball for nine seasons, helping lead the Red Sox to the American League pennant in 1967…Appeared in 900 major-league games, batting .239 with 131 home runs and 421 RBI…Credited with bringing the batting glove to baseball, he played golf professionally for a time before entering broadcasting.

What's not on that resume but should be: the Hawk won the non-ESPN bracket of "The Road from Bristol" - a contest to crown the "most loathsome national sports broadcaster not on ESPN." Hawk's victory was especially remarkable because outside of Chicago only a few baseball enthusiasts even know who he is - and not even all of them have heard him call a game. Even more amazing was that the Hawk beat heavy "favorite" Tim McCarver during the baseball postseason, when McCarver's at his most-annoying.

Anyway, vote for Bill King but DO NOT vote for the Hawk.

Vin Scully and Sandy Koufax

"29,000 people and a million butterflies"

On the scoreboard in right field it is 9:46 p.m. in the City of the Angels, Los Angeles, California. And a crowd of 29,139 just sitting in to see the only pitcher in baseball history to hurl four no-hit, no-run games. He has done it four straight years, and now he caps it: On his fourth no-hitter he made it a perfect game. And Sandy Koufax, whose name will always remind you of strikeouts, did it with a flurry. He struck out the last six consecutive batters. So when he wrote his name in capital letters in the record books, that "K" stands out even more than the O-U-F-A-X.

Thanks to Rich Lederer for the link from his post, It Was Forty Years Ago Today... which also includes his father's original article about Koufax's perfect game from the Long Beach Independent, Press-Telegram.

So much great stuff in there - Koufax's pitching, Scully's call and two generations of quality Lederer writing. Though the game is well before my time, I can listen to Scully's call in my head as I read it -- and it's fantastic!

Scooped by Stone?

stone: Baseball price-performance

Marc points us towards a "nice graphic on how teams are performing relative to their payroll." It is a nice graphic, but it's certainly not perfect. What would be more interesting to me is a graph showing marginal payroll vs. marginal wins for 2005.

... a major league team could probably win 40 games by only spending around $7.5 million (25 roster spots times $300,000). Dividing the numbers, this would only cost about $187,000 a win ... How much did major league teams pay for each win above replacement-level wins? About $1.5 million each. -Dave Studeman

So, here are the six AL playoff contenders, ranked by cost per marginal win.

Cleveland -- $650,766
Oakland -- $946,600
ChiSox -- $1,142,177
Anaheim -- $1,743,072
Boston -- $2,103,034
Yankees -- $3,916,836

The Indians, A's and White Sox are all outperforming the $1.5M cost per marginal win while the Angels, Red Sox and Yankees are all spending too much. (Big surprise there!) I wonder if anyone in the history of baseball has ever overpaid for wins as eggregiously as the Yankees.. Does anyone know?

What it's all about

Baseball Toaster : Catfish Stew : Blog the Dawgs

"My family vacation to San Diego coincided with a Padres road trip, so we missed Petco Park. But no matter. We went out Saturday evening and checked out some Surf Dawgs, instead."

Great post from Ken Arneson. I really have nothing to add. Just read his post...

Steroid Suspension for Rincon

"Minnesota Twins pitcher Juan Rincon was suspended for 10 days Monday, making him the fifth player disciplined under Major League Baseball's new policy on performance-enhancing drugs."
-Twins pitcher suspended for violating baseball's drug policy

That one comes as a surprise. He's the first major league pitcher to be suspended, and the Most Valuable Outted Steroid User to date. His 12 Win Shares in 2004 are almost double the combined Win Shares of the four previously suspended players.

Alex Sanchez - 5
Jorge Piedra - 2
Agustin Montero - 0
Jamal Strong - 0

His brief departure is not likely to affect the AL Central race in any substantive way, but it's certainly worthy of an eyebrow raising.

North Dakota?

North Dakota Senate backs restoring Roger Maris' home run record

"The North Dakota Senate unanimously approved a resolution Thursday asking baseball commissioner Bud Selig to reinstate Roger Maris' 61 home runs in 1961 as the major league record."

Yawn.

"Sen. Heitkamp said he has gotten several messages wondering why the North Dakota Legislature was wasting its time on baseball."

I think it's fairly obvious that there's nothing going on in North Dakota. Thus, they're not wasting time so much as keeping busy. North Dakotans, this is your tax dollars at work.

Barry Bonds - Done?

Bonds says he may be out until next season following knee surgery

Right now I'm just going to try to rehab myself to get back to, I don't know, hopefully next season, hopefully the middle of the season. I don't know. Right now I'm just going to take things slow. -Barry Bonds, earlier today

Rick Ankiel's Premature (?) Obituary

And let�s face it, after Ankiel hangs up his cleats for good, he�ll follow a career path not unlike countless Americans before him. I mean, very few of us get paid to follow our dreams. By the time we reach age 25, most of us have already set aside our ball gloves or our guitars or our paintbrushes and we�ve started looking for more practical ways to settle down, pay the rent, make do. In a very real sense, then, when we mourn for Rick Ankiel we may as well be mourning ourselves. - Brian Gunn Rick Ankiel, Ex-Pitcher

Great little article about Ankiel and what looks like the end of his once-promising baseball career.

Ranting, Raving and oh yeah, Baseball

Offseason Rankings: Part One -- The Hardball Times

"The Orioles were 10th in the AL last year with a 5.05 ERA from their starting pitchers. Want to guess how many starters they added this offseason to try to rectify the situation? That's right, none. Unless you count James Baldwin (you shouldn't)." - Ben Jacobs

Just a phenomenal, bitter series of comments on the 15 worst offseasons. Ben Jacobs is clearly not trying to make friends in any front offices or locker rooms. Good times.

Barry Larkin - Hall of Famer (to be)

"[Barry] Larkin should be a no-brainer for the Hall of Fame."
- Aaron Gleeman, Larkin for the Hall? -- The Hardball Times

Gleeman does a great job of making Larkin's case based on OPS vs. his positional contemporaries, Runs Created vs. same and all-time shortstop Win Shares. I think it's a compelling case. But what does our Genetic Algorithm-based rule say?

With 16 matches out of 19 possibilities, Larkin is a definite Hall of Famer, according to our rule. Remember, we require 14 matches, so Larkin's well past the barrier.

The problem, as Gleeman says is that "in addition to the overall increase in offense that Larkin missed out on in his younger years, the end of his career coincides with the emergence of several outstanding offensive shortstops." Larkin may be facing an uphill battle for election, but I think he will eventually be (deservingly) enshrined.

Genetic Algorithms and the Baseball Hall of Fame

I've been meaning to write this post for a long time. Late this summer, we interviewed a recent college grad to work in the Marketing department here at my company, TheLadders.com (the place to go for your $100k+ job search). As I was chatting with him, he mentioned that he's into baseball a little bit. Naturally, I prodded, and he forked over his research paper.

Modeling Election to the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame through the use of Genetic Algorithms (PDF) by David Cohen

Here's the abstract:

This paper will use an alternate methodology for modeling called Genetic Algorithms. Using that method, several logical, rather than mathematical, rules for election to the baseball Hall of Fame will be found and examined. Predictions about future election, as well as past elections will be made. Ultimately, one rule will be picked as best, and examined in more depth than the others.

Read the full paper - it's fascinating. And to my knowledge, matching fourteen of the nineteen criteria above does indeed lead to Hall of Fame election. There are no eligible position players that both (a) meet the criteria and (b) are not enshrined in Cooperstown.

So, who is currently playing or recently retired that will be elected to the HOF according to these rules? Who's just missing the cut? These are the kinds of questions I wanted to answer before I posted the article, but I simply haven't found the time. Now, I'm hoping that you can help. Run recent players through these rules and post your results somewhere - or email me at andrew AT andrewkoch DOT com and I'll post 'em for you.

And by the way, Dave Cohen is doing a great job in our Marketing dept...

The History of Baseball Trades

"We're lousy with ideas." - Mike Carminati

I think he's trying to say that he and Studes have lots of ideas - specifcially about trade analysis.

Studes' The Best and Worst Teams of the Trade and Mike's I�ll Take Manhattan: Baseball�s Most Lopsided Trades are the first in what promises to be an intriguing series of articles analyzing trades over the history of baseball.

Looks like a great little pre-spring training appetizer.

I Think They Call it Satire

Over on the Hardball Times, Bill James urges caution and patience on the steroid witch hunt:

Gathering

Yanks To Stick Knife in Giambi's Back

From the NY Post, JASON'S LIKELY DONE AS YANKEE

A day after Giambi's grand jury testimony in the BALCO case, in which he admitted using steroids and human growth hormone, appeared in the San Francisco Chronicle, the Yankees didn't come running to their troubled first baseman's defense.

...

One option is trying to void Giambi's contract, which has four years and $84.5 million remaining.

...

The [contract] reads, "The player agrees to keep himself in the best possible condition."

The Yankees could argue that Giambi's steroid use caused his left knee to fall apart in 2003 when he hit 41 homers but batted .250, and that the use led to the parasite and a benign tumor that limited him to playing 80 games this past season when he batted a career-low .208.

...

If the Yankees decide not to void the deal, they could work out a settlement with Giambi and he could become a free agent. Never a fan favorite from the beginning because he replaced popular Tino Martinez, Giambi has lied about using steroids. Before long Yankees fans will pin the 3-0 flush job against the Red Sox on Giambi even though he wasn't on the ALCS roster.

"I remain committed to helping the Yankees in anyway I can whenever possible," Strawberry said. "I greatly appreciate the encouragement and support given to me and my family by Mr. Steinbrenner and the Yankees."

And the comment from the post I bolded above (in the original quote) is little more than a suggestion that the Yankee fans SHOULD blame Giambi. I can't think of anything more ridiculous than blaming him for the loss to the Sox.

It's Official

What Bonds told BALCO grand jury

Bonds said he had begun using the cream and the clear [steriods] at a time when he was aching with arthritis and was distraught over the terminal illness of his father, former Giants All-Star Bobby Bonds, who died Aug. 23, 2003.

"I have bad arthritis. I've played 18 years, bad knees, surgeries and so on," Bonds testified, adding that he wanted a product that would "take the arthritis pain away that I feel in the mornings when it's super cold ...

"I was battling with the problems with my father and the -- just the lack of sleep, lack of everything."

But Bonds said he got little help from Anderson's products.

"And I was like, to me, it didn't even work."

Hallworthy?

A co-worker of mine did some work about HOF worthiness that's pretty interesting - I'll have to see if I can get his permission to post it here. The basic approach is to figure out what counting and rate stats the BWAA use (consciously or subconsciously) to determine whether a player belongs in the HOF.

Here's an interesting case:
G - 2,000
AB - 6,976
R - 1,455
H - 2,010
2B - 423
3B - 65
HR - 445
RBI - 1,299
SB - 460
CS - 132
BB - 1,430
SO - 1,112
BA - 0.288
OBP - 0.409
SLG - 0.559
Win Shares - 437

That's Barry Bonds' career through 1999 - a shoe-in Hall of Famer, right? So, when did Barry become a Hall of Famer? And when did he start taking steriods? My guess is that he was a Hall of Famer before he started taking the sauce. What do you think? Does it matter? Should it?

Academic Take on Moneyball

Hardball Times links to Sabernomics links to An Economic Evaluation of the Moneyball Hypothesis.

Our work is essentially an assessment of Lewis' [Moneyball] argument, and as such is merely an after-the-fact replication of work done by the innovators at the heart of his book. But we do find that they (and Lewis) were right, and further, that the process that they set in motion had in large part been completed by the time the book was published.

Yet More on the 2006 Baseball World Cup

I took a wild guess at the US roster for the proposed World Cup here. Craig Burley does the same with many more complete thoughts and logical reasoning.

You just have to skim past all that stuff about Diegomar Markwell (!?!?) and the rest of Team Netherlands.

Baseball's Bad Moon Rising

Giambi admitted taking steroids

The onetime Oakland A's first baseman and 2000 American League Most Valuable Player testified that in 2003, when he hit 41 home runs for the Yankees, he had used several different steroids obtained from Greg Anderson, weight trainer for San Francisco Giants star Barry Bonds.

"Jason Giambi's reported testimony that he used steroids might jeopardize his $120 million contract with the New York Yankees and allow baseball commissioner Bud Selig to discipline him."

The weird thing is that Grand Jury testimony is supposed to be secret, right? Isn't anyone upset that "secret", "sealed" testimony is now common knowledge? Well, here's something from that same article (the second one):

Meanwhile, U.S. Attorney Kevin Ryan said his office was concerned about the leaks to the Chronicle and asked the Justice Department to investigate. "Violations of grand jury secrecy rules will not be tolerated," [U.S. Attorney Kevin] Ryan said .

Little late there Kevin, don't you think? This cat's already out of the bag...

Yee Haw!

ESPN.com - MLB - Report: Baseball World Cup set for 2006

"The first World Cup of baseball will be held in March 2006, Japanese baseball officials told the Japan Times, following meetings involving American, Japanese and Korean officials."

I hope this is true. I can't wait to see it.

UPDATE:
You've gotta like the Dominican Republic:

Catcher - Miguel Olivo
First - David Ortiz, Albert Pujols
Second - Alfonso Soriano, Placido Polanco
Third - Adrian Beltre, Aramis Ramirez
Short - Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal
Outfield - Vladimir Guerero, Manny Ramirez, Sammy Sosa, Jose Guillen, Juan Encarnacion
Starting Pitchers - Pedro Martinez, Bartolo Colon, Jose Lima, Ramon Ortiz, Odalis Perez
Bullpen - Octavio Dotel, Guillermo Mota, Damaso Marte, Rafael Soriano, Solomon Torres, Jose Mesa

And the U.S.:

Catcher - Mike Piazza, Jason Varitek
First - Todd Helton, Jim Thome
Second - Bret Boone, Jeff Kent
Third - Eric Chavez, Scott Rolen
Short - Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter
Outfield - Barry Bonds, Jim Edmonds, Gary Sheffield, Adam Dunn, JD Drew
Starting Pitchers - Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Ben Sheets, Jason Schmidt, Curt Schilling
Bullpen - Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan, John Smoltz, Billy Wagner, Tom Gordon

Over... well, almost

Three outs to go. There's no way the Sox lose this series.

By the way, someone should let the Cardinals know that the World Series is going on. They could have made this whole thing at least mildly entertaining if they could score a run, ever.

Playoff Chase

Between the AL West and the AL Wildcard there are four teams fighting for two playoff spots. Here's how their schedules look over the last month+ of the season. (ranked by opponents' winning pct)

Oakland - .493
Anaheim - .500
Boston - .503
Texas - .511

And the key series between these four teams:

Ana at Bos, 8/31 - 9/2
Tex at Bos, 9/3 - 9/5
Bos at Oak, 9/6 - 9/8
Tex at Oak, 9/13 - 9/16
Tex at Ana, 9/17 - 9/19
Oak at Tex, 9/21 - 9/23
Oak at Ana, 9/24 - 9/26
Ana at Tex, 9/27 - 9/30
Ana at Oak, 10/1 - 10/3

And some of those old-school, back-east rivalry games:

Bos at NYY, 9/17 - 9/19
NYY at Bos, 9/24 - 9/26

That gives us a game with HUGE playoff implications every day between 8/31 - 9/8 and 9/13 - 10/3. I give a slight edge to the A's here for two reasons: (1) Their games against the Red Sox are at home instead of at Fenway and (2) They have a slightly easier schedule.

Regardless, there's going to be an aweful lot of good baseball to watch down the stretch, so thank goodness for MLB Extra Innings! Now, if I could only get around that annoying Fox roadblock on Saturday afternoons...

The Sandman and the Duke, Revisited

Back on June 6, I pointed out how similar Mariano Rivera and Justin Duchscherer had been. How have they done since?

Since June 6:

After both starting the year pretty well, the Duke and Rivera have headed in totally opposite directions. Duchscherer's post-June 6th WHIP is double his pre-6/6 WHIP and his K/BB has been halved. Rivera, meanwhile, has decreased his WHIP to an impressive 0.91 and more than tripled his K/BB rate. Simply put: Rivera is much better.

The lessons:

(1) Don't get too excited about small sample sizes.
and
(2) Don't point out how well A's pitchers are doing and invoke the "Jinx."

(Read this for an explanation of why lesson #2 is a joke.)

Best Rotations

Back in January, I remember reading a number of articles about "The Best Rotations in Baseball." Rotational Metrics was one such article that I enjoyed. The concluding thought there: "The Oakland Athletics get my personal vote as the most promising staff in baseball looking ahead to 2004. An honorable mention has to go to the Red Sox..."

So, what are the league's top Starting Rotations so far? When looking at this, I wasn't exactly how to define a starting rotation. The Yankees, for instance, have used eleven(!) different pitchers as starters. It doesn't really make sense to lump Alex Graman into any discussion of the Yankee rotation, so I decided to look only at the top 5 starting pitchers on each team.

Again, however, I ran into trouble. Should I use the pitchers with the most starts? The starting pitchers with the most win shares? The pitchers with the most IP? The "most talented?"

For simplicity's sake, I went with the most-used starting pitchers - that is the pitchers on each team who had started the most games. For the most part, I think this captures each team's true, intended "starters." The one truly odd exception that I ran into, however, is Mark Prior. Kerry Wood, Matt Clement, Greg Maddux, Carlos Zambrano and Glendon Rusch have all started more games than Prior, so I didn't include him in my little study.

Now, onto success and greatness as a pitching rotation. I've decided to rate each staff by total win shares. Sure, Win Shares Above Average will tell you how well each pitcher has performed, given his playing time, but I want to know how much have these pitchers contributed to team success. Fortunately, that's what Win Shares are all about - how each player contributed to team success.

And the results:

Team - Total Win Shares (Starting Rotation)
OAK - 44
BOS - 36
NYM - 35
MIN - 35
CHC - 34
HOU - 34
CHW - 34
STL - 32
FLO - 31
MIL - 30
TOR - 30
CLE - 29
SFG - 28
NYY - 27
ATL - 26
ANA - 25
TEX - 25
BAL - 25
DET - 25
COL - 23
SDP - 23
SEA - 23
MON - 22
ARI - 21
TBD - 20
PHI - 19
CIN - 19
PIT - 19
LAD - 19
KC - 16

Very interesting stuff. As Jason Moyer predicted in his "Rotational Metrics" article, the A's rotation is indeed the cream of the crop with the Red Sox receiving "honorable mention."

A couple other things that jumped out at me...

-> The Mets' staff has really done a phenomenal job, coming in third in my rankings. I have pretty much written them off in the playoff hunt, but with pitching that good, they should continue to stick around. I guess I'm going to have to reconsider them.

-> The Phillies have gotten terrible starting pitching from pitchers that sound like they should be better: Milton, Wolf, Padilla, Millwood and Brett Myers. If you told me that rotation was going to be the fifth worst in all of baseball, I would have laughed in your face. I'm still shocked to see that the Tigers, Rockies, Expos and Devil Rays all have better pitching than the Phillies. If the Philadelphia pitching doesn't improve, I'm not sure I like them much better than the Mets in the NL East.

-> I'm not surprised to see the Royals, Pirates and Reds in the "Bottom Five" here, but the Dodgers are another big surprise. Their pitching staff was great last year - so great that they felt comfortable giving away Kevin Brown for the enigmatic Jeff Weaver. Kevin Brown's health problems this year come as no surprise, but he did throw 211 innings last year with a 2.39 ERA. It's tough to give that up and get 4.17 ERA in return. And seriously, what's wrong with Hideo Nomo? Did his arm fall off? He has a career ERA of 4.00 and is more than doubling that with this year's 8.06.

-> Gotta love those A's. Starting pitching is clearly their strength, but it's pretty remarkable how much better (and healthier) the A's starting pitching has been than every other team in baseball this year. Oakland's SP's have contributed 22% more Win Shares than the next best team's starters so far. If only the bullpen was this good...

UPDATE: Credit where credit is due. Big thanks to The Hardball Times for their Stats pages. Couldn't live without 'em.

The Sandman and the Duke

Which of these lines belongs to Mariano Rivera and which one belongs to Justin Duchscherer?

And does it even really matter? The Duke has been pitching great for the A's this year. Between the Duke and Chad Bradford, I feel pretty good about our bullpen, even if King Arthur Rhodes blows a few saves here and there.

Cliff Lee

The A's will face 25-year-old Cliff Lee, and I have to say that I'm becoming a big fan of his.

His numbers last year impressed me, despite his 3-3 record. He started 9 games and pitched 52.1 innings. Opponents batted .220/.300/.371 (avg/obp/slg) against Cliff, and he struck out 7.57 per 9 innings.

I liked his numbers enough to draft him late in my fantasy draft. I actually dropped him early on to make room for someone, but have since been wise enough to pick him back up.

So far this year, Lee is 5-0 with a 3.21 ERA. Interestingly, he's started 9 games and pitched 53.1 innings, so his 2004 stats are easily comparable to his 2003 numbers. In fact, the numbers are very similar. Batters have hit .232/.338/.338 against Cliff this year and he's striking out 7.09 per 9IP.

Since so many of the stats are similar, I'll point out the differences in Lee's performance between last year and this year.

->Doubles allowed are way up from 5 to 13.
->HR are down from 7 to 2.
->BB are up from 20 to 28.
->K's are down from 44 to 42.
->SLG is down from .371 to .338
->OBP is up from .300 to .338
(Those last two changes virtually cancel each other out in OPS - .671/.676)

All of which is to say that Lee was pretty good last year, and he's pretty good again this year. While I hope the A's beat him tonight, Cliff is an "Andrew guy."

The Blog Jinx

Over the last week or so I've suggested that Tim Hudson was pitching as well as anyone in the AL, and that Gary Sheffield is more-or-less clueless. Since then, both players have seen a drastic reversal of fortune. Well, at least for a game or two.

To measure their performances, I'm going to look at Game Scores for Hudson and Runs Created (in a single game) for Sheffield.

Runs Created Formula

(H+BB+HBP-CS-GIDP)(TB+.26[BB-IBB+HBP]+.52[SH+SF+SB])
-------------------------------------------------------------------
(AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF)

Game Score calculation from ESPN:

Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk

Prior to May 26...

• Sheffield was averaging .76 RC/game played.
  
• Sheffield had cracked 3 RC in a single game only twice.
  
• Gary had topped out at 4.17 RC in a single game
  

And for Tim Hudson, prior to May 25...

• He had a 5-1 record and a 2.90 ERA.
  
• His average game score was a 58. (Randy's perfect game was a 100)
  
• His lowest game score was a 33. (May 2 against the Devil Rays)
  
• He had fallen below a game score of 50 only twice!
  

So, I talk about Hudson's success and it disappears. I mention Sheffield's struggles and they disappear. Perhaps I should point out that the Angels are winning a lot of games...

Sheff Can't Smell Own Cookin'

Sheff needs a Koufax
"When I face top pitchers, I'm at my best."

Gary Sheffield is trying to say that his stats so far have been poor because he's facing too many bad pitchers. If he were facing better competition, he'd be hitting the ball better, or so he claims. But is he right?

I've played around a bit on ESPN's batter v. pitcher stats for the Sheff and I think Gary's wrong.

I took the stats for all pitchers availbable on ESPN's BvP database for Gary and ranked each pitcher as either "great" or "not-great." It's a very subjective ranking, but I noted these 32 pitchers as "great" (over the course of Gary's career, sorted by Gary AB's):

Curt Schilling
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine
John Smoltz
Javier Vazquez
Randy Johnson
Al Leiter
Jason Schmidt
Hideo Nomo
Pedro Martinez
Matt Morris
Trevor Hoffman
Kevin Brown
Roger Clemens
Josh Beckett
Tim Hudson
Bartolo Colon
Jason Isringhausen
Barry Zito
Mark Mulder
Robb Nen
David Wells
Wade Miller
Billy Wagner
Keith Foulke
Eric Gagne
Troy Percival
Kerry Wood
Mike Mussina
Roy Oswalt
Mark Prior
Mariano Rivera

I think it's fairly clear (and not that surprising) that Gary hits better against weaker competition, despite his protestations otherwise.

(There's a more scientific way to choose "great" pitchers, but I've avoided doing that work. If someone else would like to address that, please feel free.)

2004 Win Shares

Studes never fails: 2004 Win Shares are now available!

Here's how the AL All-Star team might look if you only looked at 2004 AL Win Shares

C - Ivan Rodriguez, Jorge Posada
1B - Jason Giambi, Rafael Palmeiro, Scott Hatteberg(!)
2B - Ronnie Belliard, Alfonso Soriano
3B - Melvin Mora, Troy Glaus
SS - Michael Young, Carlos Guillen
OF - Jose Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, Rondell White, Vlad Guerrero, Chone Figgins

SP - Tim Hudson, Curt Schilling, Carlos Silva, Brad Radke, Freddie Garcia
RP - Keith Foulke, Francisco Rodriguez, Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera

And the NL All-Stars... (2004 NL Win Shares)

C - Johnny Estrada, Paul Lo Duca
1B - Sean Casey, Lyle Overbay
2B - Mark Loretta, Alex Cora
3B - Scott Rolen, Mike Lowell, Adrian Beltre
SS - Jack Wilson
OF - Barry Bonds, Adam Dunn, Lance Berkman, Pat Burrell, Craig Biggio

SP - Carlos Zambrano, Tom Glavine, Matt Clement, Roger Clemens, Wilson Alvarez, Jake Peavy, Randy Johnson
RP - Armando Benitez, Eric Gagne, Braden Looper

I would love to see these two teams play a 7-game series - or even just the standard one-game all-star exhibition. Now that I look back at the lists I've put together, you might take Hatteberg off the AL team in favor of that A-Rod fella'. And you might even take Palmeiro off the team to make room for (gasp!) Johhny Damon.

Interesting to see the number of Angels, including three outfielders not named Garrett Anderson! Who would have predicted that one?

Also interesting to note the name *not* on this list, including Kerry Wood, Sammy Sosa, Albert Pujols, any Red Sox positional player, Carlos Beltran and on and on... Clearly, we're looking at a smallish sample size, and this list will change as we inch closer to the actual all-star game. I'd like to see how this list looks a month from now, so maybe I'll pull that together sometime...

Terrible Mets Broadcast

I'm trying to watch the Mets-Expos on Fox Sports NY right now, but the audio keeps fading in and out. It's not quite fading from "on" all the way to "off," but it's damn annoying. I'd say it's waving back and forth from about an '8' to a '13' on my TV's volume control with maddening irregularity.

It's not that anyone should be excited about watching a Mets-Expos game in the near-deserted Hiram Bithorn Stadium, but FSNY could at least make an effort to make it entertaining - or mildly watchable. Thanks for nothing.

Speaking of volume problems, have you ever noticed that Braves games on TBS hardly have any ambient park noise? Would it kill TBS to buy a parabolic mike to pick up a little banter from the crowd? They probably took all that money they saved on parabolic mikes and spent it on Mike Hessman. Again, thanks for nothing.

Baseball and Exhaustion

Between the overwhelming amount of work I'm trying to accomplish in a new job and the beginning of the baseball season, I'm simply overwhelmed.

I'd love nothing more than to write about Rhodes, Ellis, Dye and the gang, but I simply don't have enough time.

The least I can do is point you towards this great analysis of Rhodes over at "The Times." Gleeman writes so many good articles each week, I wonder how he has time to study and enjoy the college bars too. Must be a busy beaver, or gopher I guess.

Religion V. Red Sox

Yahoo!'s featuring an article about the Red Sox' opening day, which happens to fall on Good Friday.

"I think it's very insensitive to the huge number of people who are Christians and fans." said the Rev. Christopher J. Coyne. The church, by the way, won't give anyone a special dispensation to eat meat - so no hot dogs, sausages or Meat-Beer.

Oh, wait. There's no meat in beer? Ohhhhh. OK.

I think calling this "very insensitive" is a little dramatic. Inconvenient, perhaps. But it's opening day at Fenway - I don't think Good Friday's enough to keep the crowd away. And those that do attend will get drunker. Less money spent on $4 hot dogs will mean more money spent on $5.50 beers.

(Doesn't the church have bigger things to worry about?)