AndrewKoch.com

I'm Not Alone

"Dear Billy: You've done it again. Turned the A's into winners. Sure it's only May, but every month counts. Congratulations. Just one more thing. Sign Barry Bonds." -Art Spander

Thomas + Bonds?

"No, what I'm rooting for is the unconventional, a general manager who doesn't give a hoot about disapproving scrutiny as long as Bonds can help his team win." -Childs Walker, Baltimore Sun (h/t BaseballMusings)

I know the A's have Frank Thomas back on board as DH, but couldn't we find a spot for Barry Bonds too? Imagine Bonds, Thomas and Jack Cust playing in a round-robin platoon of sorts for LF/DH:

- Bonds in LF, Thomas at DH
- Cust in LF, Thomas at DH
- Cust in LF, Bonds at DH

Surely Bonds could be signed today to a small base, big incentive contract. When your agent is accusing baseball of colluding against you, you're getting desperate - and desperate baseball players will sign cheaper contracts, right? We know Barry can still hit, and while he's a liability in LF, it's not like Jack Cust is in danger of winning a Gold Glove out there either. And under my plan, Bonds is only in LF twice a week. That's not so bad, is it?

Just as a reminder, the A's are slugging .363 as a team right now, and Bonds slugged .565 last year. So, Billy Beane... what say you?

Reason for Optimism?

In his post, Adjusting PECOTA to Make the A's Win, Catfish Stew's Ken Arneson provides "a little balloon of hope to lift you through spring training, before reality comes along to stick a pin in it."

It's a smart analysis of the A's chances (not good) and what has to happen for them to catch the Angels (lots of stuff). It's worth a read, and it does provide a sparkle of hope for A's fans expecting an unbearable 2008 season. But that's all there is - a sparkle of hope.

Farewell Dan Haren

The Oakland A's traded Dan Haren to the Diamondbacks last night. (Story on SFGate)

Now that we know the A's are rebuilding, what other moves make sense? Should they deal Blanton too? Probably. But what about Harden, Street, Swisher, Ellis, Crosby and Chavez. If we're going to rebuild, let's not mess around with a half-assed effort. As GM Billy Beane said, "We finally know where we're going and we're going to go full bore." It will be tough to watch the A's struggle through their 2008 season, but I am excited about rebuilding. Bring on the changes.

As for Haren, he gave the A's 660 innings with an ERA of 3.64 over three years. That's pretty darn good pitching, especially when you consider the alternative. Since the Haren-Mulder trade, Mark Mulder pitched 300 innings with a 5.00 ERA. Beane definitely got the better end of that deal (even before you factor in Daric Barton), and I'm optmistic about this latest trade as well.

So, what did the A's get for Haren?

The prospects coming to Oakland are left-handed pitchers Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith, infielder Chris Carter, and outfielders Aaron Cunningham and Carlos Gonzalez. -A's Official Site

David PInto over at Baseball Musings has some thoughts on five of the newest Athletics:

All five players sent to the Athletics are prospects. Brett Anderson will be 20 in 2008 and had an outstanding season at A ball. Dana Eveland hasn't translated his low minor league walk numbers to the majors yet. Greg Smith also posts good walk and strikeout numbers in the minors. Aaron Cunningham is developing power as he rises through the minors. Carlos Gonzalez is the least impressive one of the group, but he's only 21 and already at AAA. Basically, the Athletics restocked their system with five good players.

Well, I don't own an Athletics Nation t-shirt with "In Billy We Trust" on the back for nothing...

Good News, Bad News

Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis going to the Tigers is both good news and bad news for the A's. The bad news is that they're moving into the AL, but the good news is that the Angels didn't get them.

So far this offseason, the Angels have been mentioned as potential suitors for every significant trade and high-end free agent. It's been great news for the A's that nothing has worked out for them yet. I'm curious to see what the rest of the offseason holds. Will the A's deal Haren? Blanton? Anyone?

Bonds Indicted

Over at Athletics Nation, Blez nails it in his post on this topic, Bonds Indicted: "...perhaps this takes a lot of options for the Angels off the table."

The A's offseason plans seemed to be resting on the Angels. If the Angels got Bonds and/or A-Rod, the A's would unload major leaguers for prospects and rebuild. If the Angels got neither, a possibility which is looking more and more likely, the A's would re-load, hope for a healthy 2008 and make another run at the AL West.

With Bonds out of the picture (as either a convict or a pariah) and A-Rod likely re-signing with the Yankees, things are shaping up for the A's to have a decent chance at the division title. With a little old-fashioned Billy Beane magic, an improved training regimen to keep players healthy and a little luck, the A's could be a frisky team next year.

Yes, It's Too Late

Over at Baseball Musings, Pinto asks if the A's are Improving Too Late?

In a word: Yes

One of my favorite pages on the "internets" is the playoff odds report from Baseball Prospectus, which (sadly) shows the A's have a 0.732% chance of making the postseason as of 8/22/07. While I would LOVE to see the A's somehow pull it off, it's just not going to happen.

Kendall to the Cubbies

From Gregg:

A’s Fan #1: Guess what? We traded Jason Kendall.
A’s Fan #2: Great trade. Who’d we get?

I enjoyed some aspects of the Jason Kendall era: tagging out Michael Young at homeplate to end the game and scoring the winning run from third when K-Rod dropped a throw from the catcher. And to be fair, the pitching staff seemed to do well with him behind the plate.

Kendall's cERA with Oakland (2005-07): 3.81
Total ERA for Oakland (2005-07): 3.90

But, I can't say I enjoyed the 482 AB/HR or the .658 OPS. In fact, Kendall's OPS so far this year is .538, worst amongst all MLB batters that qualify for the batting title (3.1 plate appearances per team game). It didn't help that the A's were paying him $11mm/yr. Anyway, I don't think this trade means the A's are throwing in the towel. I'm still holding out hope...

Things are Looking Grim for the A's

Well, the A's have lost nine straight games and fallen 12 games behind the AL West leading Angels and 11.5 games behind the wild card leading Indians. Oddly, I haven't given up hope. I somehow still believe the A's can put together a run at the playoffs. If Rich Harden, Huston Street and Mike Piazza can get healthy and return to form, I think the A's still have an outside shot at making things interesting.

But things do indeed look bad. Here's a look at 10-game rolling averages for the A's runs scored for and runs scored against:

Basically, you want the blue line to be above the pink line, and that really hasn't been the case since mid-June. Since beating the Cardinals 14-3 on June 15, the A's have averaged 3.8 runs per game, while allowing an average of 5.75 runs. With a run differential like that, you'd expect a team to win only 30% of its games, and sure enough, the A's have gone 7-21, playing .250 baseball. Things aren't looking pretty, and we're quickly approaching the point where we're forced to "Wait Till Next Year."

Curt Schilling - Not Quite Perfect

Loud groans from the Red Sox fans in the office this afternoon as Shannon Stewart spoiled Curt Schilling's no-hit bid. It's nice to make them miserable even when we let them win the occasional game.

Too bad Blanton didn't get any offensive support. His 7.1 innings of 4-hit ball weren't too shabby.

I got a kick out of the Games Notes from Yahoo!'s box score:

BOSTON PITCHER CURT SCHILLING HAS A NO-HITTER THROUGH SIX INNINGS.
BOSTON PITCHER CURT SCHILLING HAS A NO-HITTER THROUGH SEVEN INNINGS.
BOSTON PITCHER CURT SCHILLING HAS A NO-HITTER THROUGH EIGHT INNINGS.
BOSTON PITCHER CURT SCHILLING HAS A NO-HITTER THROUGH 8 1/3 INNINGS.
BOSTON PITCHER CURT SCHILLING HAS A NO-HITTER THROUGH 8 2/3 INNINGS.
THE SINGLE BY OAKLAND'S SHANNON STEWART WITH TWO OUTS IN THE NINTH INNING ENDED CURT SCHILLING'S NO-HITTER.

Good Signs for Rich Harden

Inside Bay Area - Harden fast: Debut a gas

The A's projected ace was lights-out in his Cactus League debut, striking out five of the last six hitters he faced and tossing two scoreless innings in his team's 4-3 win over the San Diego Padres at Peoria Sports Complex. Harden surrendered only a two-out double to Adrian Gonzalez in the third inning, and second baseman Marcus Giles was the only other Padre to make contact against him. ... Harden said he'll mix in his curveball and slider as the exhibition season continues.

So, at this point in the spring, Harden is throwing only fastballs and changeups -- and he's dominating. Gotta love that.

(Hat tip to Baseball Musings)

Farewell to Ron Washington

Here's the Dallas Morning News article:

"Oakland third base coach Ron Washington will be hired as the [Ranger's] manager, Daniels confirmed to The Dallas Morning News on Monday morning."

I will offer congrats to Ron Washington, who probably deserved the shot at a managerial position. But I cannot wish him the best of luck. Managing the Rangers means the A's will see an awful lot of him and I can't root for them, as much as I've respected Wash's work with the A's. As third base and infield coach, he's never raised ire for sending runners when he shouldn't have and even more importantly, crafted an amazing infield defense.

Eric Chavez won his sixth straight Gold Glove award this year and the rest of the infield was only a hair behind him. If it had been up to me, Mark Ellis would have gotten the Gold Glove for second base this year too. He made only two errors all season and made the fantastic plays seem routine.

So, I can't root for Washington and the Rangers all year, but I will at least root for them to crush the Angels as often as they can. Bon voyage and good luck, Wash.

Hats Off to the Tigers

Well, the A's put up a little fight in each game, but if you look at the 4-0 Tigers sweep, you really don't see any fight at all. The Tigers just flat-out beat the A's. The Tigers had great hitting, great starting pitching, great relief pitching and solid defense while the A's really didn't show nearly enough of those things.

From around the interweb...

-Ken Arneson:

...without Ellis and his MLB-record 2B fielding percentage, and without Justin Duchscherer, who can throw two shutdown innings in the middle of a ballgame, the A's M.O. was gone. Those two guys were the keys, the very heart and soul of the A's success in 2006.

-Barry Zito:

I'm sure in a couple of days I'll have a more positive outlook, and I'll be able to look back at the season and smile. But right now it's just really tough because of the fashion in which we lost. We just laid down, myself included...

Eventually I'll look back at some highlights. Beating Santana in the Metrodome, highlight of my career. Going in there, with all odds against me and the team -- not just that game but the whole series -- and getting through it on the positive side is definitely a highlight...

The plane ride home is going to be pretty emotional. That kind of stuff goes on every year, saying goodbye to guys because you know they're not going to be back or might not be back. You go up to those guys and make a real point to express how much you like playing with those guys, how much you love being around them. But this year I might be the guy leaving, so I want to go up to the rest of the guys and tell them how much I appreciate playing with them, their competitive spirit, their love, their determination and their support in the clubhouse. That's going to be emotional, I'm sure.

Finally, I'd just like to thank the people who have been following us and supporting us all this time. If this ends up being my last year here, I just want the fans to know how much I love them, too. That's all I can really say right now. Thanks for everything.

-Nico on Athletics Nation:

From early in Game 1 to the end of Game 4, it was simply the Tigers time to play in the World Series. The A's, built on starting pitching, would fail to get a single quality start in the ALCS. Frank Thomas didn't get a single hit. You're not going to win too many series under those circumstances. ... I'm proud of the 2006 Oakland A's. And I can't wait for Spring Training, 2007.

-The Pastime: "Detroit was simply the better team over these 4 games. Eric Chavez took a lot of heat for saying that, but he was right. They made very few mistakes, and took advantage of the A's miscues."

-From Bruce Jenkins at the SF Chronicle:
"That man over there," said Bradley [of Frank Thomas], "that's just greatness. I grew up watching him play. Now I'm watching him accept defeat with humility. He's handling his struggles like a man. He taught me, a lot of us, how to be major-league players. You can't replace that kind of leadership."

-More from Jenkins:

Milton Bradley is the last Oakland player coming off the field, in a slow walk. He's pointing to someone on the Tigers, as if to say, "Job well done." He's pausing now, and I've got my eye on him, becase he was the Oakland A's today. Now he has been acknowledged, but Bradley is hanging around, all by himself, outside the A's dugout.


Wow. It appears that Jim Leyland is the man Bradley was acknowledging. Now Leyland is coming over to pay his respects to the A's. What a class act... Leyland knows the feeling of heartbreak, and he knows how the A's feel right now, and he has left the madness of his own team's triumph to commiserate with Oakland.

I guess I'll be rooting for the Tigers in the World Series. They're a hell of a team and a classy bunch.

Athletics Nation Says It All

After Game 2, the A's are "Down But Not Out"

Zito's Thoughts on ALCS Game 1

Barry Zito's Playoff Blog: Don't bet against us

They were gonna make me throw them strikes, and that's just something I didn't do. I think a lot of teams that face me, if they're not swinging, it's either because they're trying to time me or because they're going to make me throw strike one, and I didn't throw strike one nearly enough, so I take full responsibility for the loss.
...
I would never bet against this team. First of all because it's against the rules, but also because we've been through so much, and we've been counted out many times. If we can just refocus and clean the slate for tomorrow, I think things will start to look up for us.

Game 2: Verlander vs Loaiza

People are talking about Justin Verlander like he's the second coming of Josh Beckett, circa 2003. I had Verlander on one of my fantasy baseball teams, and he pretty much ran out of gas down the stretch. He was fantastic in July but really scuffled through August and September, as they say young pitchers tend to do.

How does Loaiza compare? Loaiza stunk up the joint for the first few months of the season before turning in a fantastic August and a mediocre September. To confirm my recollections on these guys, I took a look at their game scores, using BaseballMusings' Day by Day Database.

By the way, here's the definition of "Game Score" from Baseball-Almanac.com:

Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

And here's how they stack up (monthly averages above 50 are bolded):

Verlander definitely had the better year, but he hasn't pitched great since July. And his September game scores really mirror Loaiza's. I just don't see this as the mis-match I keep hearing about from the TV folks at ESPN and Fox.

Let's Go A's!

Vacation?

The A's pitching, defense and clutch hitting took a near total holiday today.

Pitching
As great as Zito was last week against the Twins, he really struggled against the Tigers tonight in Game 1 of the ALCS. Gaudin, Kennedy, Calero and Blanton pitched well in relief (4.1 IP and no runs), but Zito allowed 7 hits, walked three, struck out no one and gave up 5 runs in 3.2 innings.

Defense
Where the A's played nearly flawless defense against the Twins, they kicked the ball around today. Chavez made an uncharacteristic mistake on a bases-loaded grounder in the third inning that allowed a run to score. It was a tough play moving to his left, but Chavez usually makes that play -- an out there would have saved a run and ended the inning.

Then, in the fourth, D'Angelo Jimenez looked like he was trying to stop the clock instead of turning a double-play. With Craig Monroe on first, Marcus Thames grounded a ball to Chavez who zipped it over to Jimenez. As he turned to throw to first for the double-play (a near guarantee with a healthy Mark Ellis), Jimenez essentially spiked the ball into the ground (it did make it at least 75 or 80 feet in the air). Instead of two outs and the bases empty, Zito had only one out and a runner on second. The next two batters doubled and grounded out. If Jimenez had turned that double-play, the A's are out of the inning without allowing any more runs. BUT - the Tigers ended up scoring two more runs.

Those two defensive missteps arguably cost the A's 3 runs. Take those three runs away and the final score is 2-1, which takes us to our next point...

Clutch Hitting
The A's were 0-13 with runners in scoring postion. Here's the litany of good situations the A's turned sour:
-Runners on first and second with one out in the first.
-Runners on first and second with one out in the third.
-Runners on second and third with NO out in the fourth.
-Runners on first and second with NO out in the fifth.
-Runners on first and second with one out in the sixth.

It's almost unbelievable that a team could put itself in all of those situations and not score a single run. But then, this is how the A's roll in the post-season. So far this year, the A's are 3-34 with runners in scoring position. Since making the playoffs in 2000, the A's are 40-174 with RISP (according to my rough scanning of the retrosheet box scores: example). That's a .230 batting average. In fact, the A's were only 4-42 (.095) in 2001 while losing two of five to the Yankees.

This clutch hitting problem is nothing new, but we don't have to like it. And the A's don't have to keep it up. Tonight was painful, but the A's are capable of going 4-2 over the remaining 6 games against the Tigers. They just have to pitch, play defense and get a few clutch hits.

LET'S GO A'S

Underdogs

From David Pinto's ALCS Preview: "I'll pick Detroit, with about a 60% chance of winning the series."

Well, I think that's better odds than anyone gave us against the Twins...

Oh, and here's your typical A's fan.

Sweep!

Oh, the joy! I was only able to watch two half-innings of the entire Twins-A's ALDS. Bottom of the ninth in game 1 and top of the ninth in game 3. But what an enjoyable two innings they were. The Guinness in my hand was shaking last night as Street wobbled through the ninth inning towards the save and the sweep.

When was the last time the A's won a postseason series? It's been 16 years! The last time the A's won a series, they swept the Red Sox in the 1990 ALCS. Since then, post-season agony:
-1990 World Series, swept by the Reds
-1992 ALCS, lost to the Blue Jays 4-2
-2000 ALDS, Lost to the Yankees 3-2 ("Jill" Heredia gave up 6 runs in the top of the first inning of game 5 with some help from CF Terrence Long)
-2001 ALDS, Lost to the Yankees 3-2 (lost three straight after taking the first two games in New York. Oh, and there was that whole Jeter flip, Jeremy Giambi no-slide play...)
-2002 ALDS, Lost to the Twins 3-2 (lost the last two games after going up 2-1. The tastefully named Billy Koch gave up three runs in the top of the ninth of game 5, which the A's lost 5-4)
-2003 ALDS, Lost to the Red Sox 3-2 (Went up 2-0 before baserunning blunders by Eric Byrnes and Miguel Tejada and Ricado Rincon's inability to stop Todd Walker submarined the A's.)

That's six consecutive post-season series the A's had lost, the last four in excrutiating fashion. So, I could hardly believe it was happening as Luis Castillo popped out to Jay Payton in left to end the series. It's been so long, and we've rooted for such great teams in the last few years. It just seemed like we were destined to root for a postseason loser. Clearing that hurdle, getting that monkey off their backs is such a relief. If only the A's had gotten past the Yankees in 2000 or 2001, if only they'd gotten past the Twins in 2002 or the Red Sox in 2003... Well, let's hope this is our year.

"For all of those die hard A’s fans that haven’t seen a World Series since 1989, we hope to bring that back to them." -Barry Zito

Let's Go A's!

From around the interweb:
-Video from the A's locker room. I love me some Nick Swisher.
-Barry Zito: "I Can't Explain How it Feels" (Another excellent piece from Zito's blog. Really well written and heart-felt.)
-Catfish Stew: "Woooooooooooooooh! Woooooooooooooooo! Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa! Woooooooooooooooooooooooo!"
-David Pinto at BaseballMusings: "Many people said the Twins were the scariest team in the playoffs, mostly due to their great pitching. That was there in the first two games, but Oakland managed to pitch just a little bit better, and hit a bit better."
-Blez, at Athletics Nation: "Bring on the Yankees or Tigers. I personally would love to see the Yankees and finish that book that Michael Lewis started years ago. But right now, I couldn't give a rat's ass who it is..."

mmmm, ALCS...

Tentative Joy

Winning game one of a 5-game series doesn't guarantee anything, as A's fans have learned the hard way. But beating Johan Santana in Minnesota is a rare feat. And now the A's are in pretty good shape. Taking 2 of 3 from Boof Bonser, a one-armed Brad Radke and Carlos Silva is no gimme, but you have to like the A's chances. It is critical for the A's to win two of those three games, though. We (A's fans) do NOT want to see Johan Santana back on the mound in a winner-take-all game 5.

Player of the game was obvioulsy Frank Thomas, but Barry Zito pitched a great game (with some help from the free-swinging Twins). Now, we turn to Esteban Loaiza. Let's Go A's!

Notes from around the interweb:
-Zito's thoughts on game 1 (courtesy Catfish Stew)
-Gleeman's breakdown
-Simmons' game diary
-Deadspin's inifinitely funnier live blog

Anxiety

The A's kick off the ALDS in Minnesota Tuesday afternoon at 1pm Eastern. I'm not sure whether I should be upset that I'm missing the game or happy that I won't be able to agonize over every pitch as I'm in my various meetings all afternoon...

I got an email from good buddy Nick this afternoon, who asked simply, "Is there any way we can win 3 games?" Ahhh, optimism. Seriously, almost no one is picking the A's to win the series. It's going to be an uphill battle. All we fans can do is hope.

Let's go A's.

History

For the first time since the inception of AndrewKoch.com, the Oakland A's are going to the playoffs. And it feels great.

Let's take a minute to talk about matchups. The two teams from the AL Central (Tigers and Twins) cannot play each other in the first round of the playoffs, and as a by-product the A's cannot play the Yankees. That means the A's will play either the Tigers or the Twins. And because the Yankees have a better record than the A's, "we" will face the winner of the AL Central, while the Yankees will get the wildcard team.

Who should we want to win the AL Central? My gut says we want nothing to do with the Twins, but let's check some numbers.

This crude analysis doesn't feel all that conclusive, but two things frighten me about the Twins: (1) The A's have a TON of trouble in the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome and (2) the Twins are red-hot. Let's go Tigers!

Sitting Pretty

Ken Arneson is still nervous, but I am not. The A's magic number is down to 4, with ten games remaining. The Angels have a magic number too: 19.

For the Angels to make the playoffs, they would have to win all 7 of their games against the A's and their three games with Texas. Meanwhile, the A's would have to lose two of three to the Mariners while losing all of those seven games to the Angels. It's not impossible, but it is so unlikely that I feel comfortable *not* worrying.

Baseball Prospectus' Posteason Odds Report says the A's chances of winning the division are 98.5%. Sounds good to me.

Great Weekend for the A's

A's sweep the White Sox, Angels lose two of three to the Rangers (Fri-Sat-Sun) after winning the first game of their series.

End Result: A's Magic Number down to 7, A's division lead up to 7 games.

If you're an A's fan, you are absolutely feeling better today than you did on Friday. Hopefully, we can extend this lead a little more and make that last series in Anaheim irrelevant. It would be nice to relax that weekend and set up the rotation for a deep October run (please!).

Up next for the A's are the Cleveland Indians, who are 3-7 over their last ten games and without their best player (Travis Hafner) for the rest of the season. Let's Go A's!

Update: Baseball Prospectus' Postseason Odds Report says the A's have a 97% chance of making the playoffs at this point. I've been checking that report every day for two weeks now, and it's fantastic, especially because they chart the division races over time. Here's the AL West Division Race.

A's Inching Closer to the Playoffs

In the last week, the A's have gone 3-3. They won two of three in Tampa and lost two of three in Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Angels have gone 4-3. They took two of three from Toronto and lost two of three to the White Sox (both series in Anaheim) before winning the first game of a four-game series against the Rangers (in Arlington) last night.

So, the magic number has gone from 18 to 12. The A's need a combination of wins and Angels' losses adding up to twelve in order to clinch the division.

The two teams play each other seven times in these last 2+ weeks of the seasons. A mid-case scenario (neither best- nor worst-case), would have the A's winning just 3 of those 7 critical games. Those three victories alone would drop the A's magic number to 6. Let's say, conservatively, that the A's only win 3 of their 10 remaining non-Angels games. That drops the magic number to 3, and leaves the Angels without a whole lot of wiggle room. Assuming everything plays out in that exact scenario, the Angels would have to go 6-2 against the Rangers and Royals to take the division.

As I was writing this, I was hoping that the case for the Angels would be miserably bleak, but 6-2 against the Rangers and Royals is not so unreasonable. I guess I can take solace in this: the A's control their own destiny. If the A's play any better than 6-11 over their last seventeen games, they're pretty much in.

While I Was Away

I spent a week in Ireland, northwest of Galway, since my last post. That area around Lough Corrib is truly beautiful... and there are plenty of pubs. It was my second trip to the Emerald Isle, and both times have been very relaxing. The only downside is losing touch with the A's.

Fortunately the A's went 4-2, winning series in Toronto and Texas and extending their lead in the AL West to 6.5 games. Since then, the A's have gone only 5-3 and have given a game back to the Angels, who now trail the A's by 5.5 games. With 23 games left on the schedule, the A's magic number is 18.

Here's how the rest of the season looks for the A's:

3 gms at TB
3 gms at MIN
3 gms vs CWS
4 gms vs CLE
3 gms vs LAA (or ANA, if you're old school)
3 gms at SEA
4 gms at LAA

I would love to be further ahead, but I'm happy with where we are. We, er... the A's control their own destiny, and have a great shot at winning the division - hopeful the A's can clinch before that last 4-game trip to Anaheim. I'd like to save my angst and misery for the postseason...

Just for comparison sake, here's how the AL West looked at this time over the last couple years. Final result in parantheses:

2005: A's 0.5 games behind the Angels (Angels won the division by 7 games)
2004: A's 1.5 games ahead of the Angels (Angels won the division by 1 game)
2003: A's 2 games ahead of the Angels (A's won the division by 3 games)
2002: A's 2 games ahead of the Angels (A's won the division by 4 games)

(Old standings are available on ESPN's MLB Standings page - just change the date drop-downs)

Fantastic Chavez

Over at Catfish Stew, Ken Arneson is feeling pious: Praise Be for Eric Chavez, Deity of Fielding

Eric Chavez... is simply having the most astounding season of fielding I have ever had the pleasure to witness. Great fielding seasons don't get the kind of attention that having a bunch of walkoff hits like David Ortiz gets, but after last night's game, it's obvious to me the Chavez is having a season for the history books. This is defense of Ozzie Smith-Brooks Robinson-Bill Mazeroski's ilk, the kind of defense that deserves to be remembered for generations.

...

The latest jaw-dropper took place last night. With one out, runners on second and third, and Texas one run down, Chavez took a chopper near the bag, and quickly tagged out Mark DeRosa trying to return to third base. Now, I can't ever remember seeing a 5-unassisted at third base like that before, but Chavez didn't stop there. After tagging out DeRosa, he jumped over him into foul territory, planted his feet, and fired across the diamond to throw out the batter, Ian Kinsler. Double play, inning over.

I'd have to agree. He's been amazing at third base, but he's still not so hot at the plate. Here's another look at his OPS, this time by month:

Apr: 1.083
May: .770
Jun: .609
Jul: .614
Aug: .451 (to date)

The team is playing well, the defense is fantastic and the pitching has been good. But the A's need some offense from Chavez.

He only has two multi-hit games since June 16 and 5 RBIs over that same strech. We just need more.

The Struggles of Eric Chavez

I'm clearly late to the "Eric Chavez is hurt and struggling" party. But the table below is an interesting look at this year compared to last for Chavez. Both lines are the ten-game rolling OPS for Chavez throughout the season. Last year, he started slow, got extremely hot in early June and then played decent ball the rest of the way, save a little untimely hiccup in early September.

This year, he started hot and has essentially gotten worse every day. July has been rock bottom. Chavez has to get healthy and return to something like his normal self if the A's are going to have any real shot at the postseason. None of this is new, but like I said, it's an interesting way to look at the data.

A's Quiet 5-Game Winning Streak

I say that the A's have had a quiet 5-game winning streak because I haven't been able to see any of the games. For whatever reason (work, events, odd scheduling on MLB Extra Innings), I've missed the last few games, and the A's have done just fine without me. After this mini-surge, the A's are now 14-12 and a half-game behind the Rangers.

After 26 games last year, the A's were 11-15, had scored only 91 runs and had allowed 120. This year, the A's have given up about the same number of runs (122) but they've been able to increase the offense - scoring 121 runs so far this year. That's a 33% increase in runs scored over the same time period, but it only moved the A's from dead last in the AL in runs scored to 11th out of 14 teams. In order to make the playoffs, the A's are going to need more offense.

By the end of the 2005 season, the A's had climbed all the way up to sixth in terms of runs scored. We're going to need a similar performance again this year to pull away from our mediocre start.

The pitching, however, has been about the same this year as it was last year - 122 runs so far against 120 last year over the first 26 games and the 4th-best AL pitching staff so far in 2006 compared to a 4th-best AL pitching staff over the course of 2005. So, the A's are doing fine on the pitching front (injuries notwithstanding).

Here's the problem - last year, the A's went 11-15 in their first 26 games and 8-18 over their next 26 games with Harden and Crosby on the DL. Again this year Harden's on the DL for May, and the A's face a tough schedule with series against the Indians, at the Blue Jays, at the Yankees, at the White Sox and at the Rangers. (Although the Devel Rays ,Mariners and Royals come to Oakland over that same stretch.) So, we're left to hope the offensive explosion from yesterday carries on throughout May and carries the A's to a better record than 8-18 and a solid foundation for a playoff run.

(And by the way, you've gotta love the grit of Jason Kendall. He's a gamer, even if it does look like he's about to get pounded in that picture.)

Nice Win by the A's Last Night

A’s won 4-3 on the strength of Nick Swisher’s bat, Carlos Guillen’s errant throws in the 4th inning and surprisingly decent pitching.

Good News
- Loaiza didn’t look awful
- Swisher continues his hot start, both at the plate and in the field
- Defense looked solid, as it has all year. I love watching the A’s turn a double play
- Sloth Shelton stayed in the yard
- Huston Street bounced back from his tough outing on Sunday

Not Quite As Good News
- Bobby Crosby doesn’t look right at the plate. He went 0-4 to bring his average down to .205
- Huston Street had to throw a bunch of pitches again - 21 last night

Ken Macha Cost the A's Sunday's Game

I have two thoughts about the following:

Street's streak of converted save opportunities came to an end at 21, tied for the second longest in Oakland history with Dennis Eckersley and Mudcat Grant. Street's last blown save was July 10 at Chicago, but it was the 22-year-old's first career loss in a save situation.

"It's good for him, toughen him up,'' joked third baseman Eric Chavez, who had four hits and all three of Oakland's RBIs. "No, it happens. I want Huston out there every day -- he's the guy. He's going to be the guy. He can't be perfect his whole career.'' - Street bobbles the save
After 21 straight successes, closer has first blown chance since July

(1) Sounds like the team isn't really taking this one so hard. That's probably a good perspective, especially for a young team.
(2) Huston Street looked tired yesterday - and I'm going to place the blame at the feet of Ken Macha. If Street hadn't thrown 25 pitches in a pointless Friday-night outing, I think he holds the lead and saves the game, even with the bobblehead curse.

Disappointing Series in MN

"Three fine starts by A's pitchers at Seattle were systematically rubbed out by three correspondingly poor performances at Minnesota." -Susan Slusser, on the A's last series

Well, that didn't turn out to be so much fun. I had suggested that the pitching matchups would favor the A's, but things certainly did not turn out the way I was hoping.

The A's get a chance to bounce back this weekend in Oakland against the Rangers.

Friday - Millwood vs. Zito
Saturday - Padilla vs. Harden
Sunday - Loe vs. Haren

Again, the matchups should favor the A's. Let's hope it plays out a little better this time around.

Twinkies Up Next

My least favorite Twin was always Brian Harper. He was never the best Twin, but he seemed to have a knack for killing the A's. From 1988-1993, it seemed like he could drop a flare double on the left- or right-field line against the A's at will, and his success drove me bonkers.

Here's his career line with the Twins: .306 BA / .342 OBP / .431 SLG
And against the A's: .351 / .404 / .490
(Thanks to Baseball Musings' amazing day-by-day database for the numbers)

Brian Harper was a quality major league catcher, but he had no business putting those numbers up against my A's. I guess the A's brought out the best in Harper, and Harper brought out the worst in me. I hated him.

No one on the Twins today makes my blood boil like Brian Hunter, but I'd like to see the A's sweep 'em all the same.

Tuesday: Haren vs. Radke
Wednesday: Loaiza vs. Silva
Thursday: Blanton vs. Lohse

The A's don't have to face Johan Santana (a now-perennial favorite for the Cy Young) and the Twins miss both Zito and Harden. So, it's really a battle of the back-end of the rotations, and I like the A's chances. Let's hope Haren, Loaiza and Blanton continue the 0.43 starters' ERA we saw over the weekend in Seattle.

Nice Start, Indeed

Bradley, Thomas making presence felt / Newcomers key A's win over Yankees

"It's a nice way to start,'' said A's third baseman Eric Chavez ... "Opening Night was probably more disheartening for the fans, but we were able to shake it off."

Chavez is right. A 2-1 series victory over the Yankees is a good way to start any season. Putting aside Monday's disastrous performance, the A's have won with good pitching, great defense, quality base-running and clutch hitting. Just as Tuesday morning was too early to write off the season, Thursday morning is too early to start printing the playoff tickets... But as an A's fan, you've gotta feel good about what you've seen the last two nights.

Next up, four games in Seattle:
> Loaiza - Meche
> Blanton - Felix Hernandez
> Zito - Moyer
> Harden - Pineiro

That Blanton-Hernandez matchup tomorrow looks to be the most interesting. A 25-year-old pitcher coming off a 200 IP / 3.53 ERA season against a pitcher one day shy of his 20th birthday coming off a phenomenal 84 IP / 2.67 ERA season. Two up-and-coming pitchers facing off early in the year - anything could happen. Should be worth watching.

Feeling Better About '06

Catfish Stew : Now That's More Like It

The A's won with some home runs, a walk, a bunt and a clutch hit--a multidimensional attack that can satisfy both sabermetricians and traditionalists. The fact that they are capable of playing a crisp, tense, mistake-free playoff-caliber game in early April fills me with all kinds of hope. It finally feels like the season has begun. -Ken Arneson

I couldn't agree more. I also like his quip that, "Ken Macha and my wife outmanaged Joe Torre." It's very curious that Rivera wasn't pitching the ninth inning. As far as high-leverage innings go, tied in the bottom of the ninth has got to be right up there. You have to use your relief ace in that situation, right?

Well, I've found tangotiger's chart of Crucial Situations. Scroll down to the bottom of the ninth. And check out the various situations - depending on the score, the runners on base and the number of outs, the leverage of the situation varies from low (blank) to medium (gray) to high (blue) to very high (red). Let's walk through the A's 9th inning last night.

Start of the inning, tied: medium leverage
Bradley walks: still medium leverage
Kendall sacrifices Bradley to second: high leverage
IBB to Swisher: high leverage
Scutaro's single: game over

I guess the game never made it to a "Very high" leverage situation, but do you really want Scott Proctor out there in even High leverage spots? How is that excusable when you've got Mariano Rivera out in the bullpen? Beats me. But I'll take the win. Today, we've got youngsters Dan Haren and Chien-Ming Wang facing off.

Stumbling Out of the Gate

The A's opened the 2006 season last night and it could hardly have gone any worse, losing 15-2 to the Yankees. I keep looking through Susan Slusser's recap and the box score trying to find some kind of silver lining. I think I've finally found it: I was at dinner late last night and missed the game. I think that's it. The only good thing about last night's game was that I didn't watch it.

With that said, it is only one game, and Barry Zito started slowly last year as well. As I pointed out last May, Zito started '05 by giving up 22 ER in his first 30 innings (6.60 ERA). In fact, Zito has a 5.22 career ERA in April against a 3.27 ERA in all other months. So, let's hope Zito gets these early-season jitters out of the way and settles in to another solid year.

Happy Frank = Smiles

Nice A'S NOTEBOOK today from Susan Slusser

"[Macha] was saying how loaded this team is and how tough it is finding at-bats for everyone,'' Thomas said. "The guy who's swinging the hot bat will probably decide things a lot, but I told him that playing two out of every three games or something like that is fine with me. Whatever he needs to do to keep guys fresh.''

That's just great. The big concerns with Frank Thomas are his health and his attitude. Given his mini-feud with his former GM in Chicago and history as an occassionally selfish player, it's comforting to see Thomas acting like a good team player.

Kendall a Hidden Gem?

Top A's newcomer? Don't forget Kendall / Catcher showing signs of making up for 2005

[Gerald] Perry, who was also Kendall's hitting coach at Pittsburgh, has been working with Kendall on staying short to the ball and standing back better -- Perry believes Kendall was rushing everything last year, which is the same problem Kendall had throwing the ball in 2005.

Kendall spent the winter working hard on his throwing, which was a problem area last year, and he has looked much improved, nailing a couple of would-be base stealers this spring. Manager Ken Macha called one of Kendall's throws this spring the best he's seen him make.

"Every part of his game looks better,'' said bench coach Bob Geren, who works closely with the catchers. "His arm strength, his footwork, his timing -- it just seems like everything is clicking. And offensively, he looks like he's going to have a great year.''

Two things here. (1) I don't think anyone's counting on Kendall improving much from last year. Any improvements could really help the A's separate themselves from the Angels. (2) I've heard nothing but good things about Perry as the new hitting coach - and it's not plattitudes from the players that have me excited. It just sounds like he knows what he's doing. I don't know whether he does or not, but the idea that he's "working with Kendall on staying short to the ball and standing back better" just makes me feel better.

Have I mentioned this yet: I'm feeling good about 2006.

Baseball Crank's AL West Preview

Baseball Crank: BASEBALL: 2006 AL West EWSL Report

I'm not sure I see Oakland beating the Angels this year, but this is definitely a team that will make the race neck-and-neck, at least. Much will depend on the health of Milton Bradley and Frank Thomas and the sophomore progress of Haren, Blanton, Street, Nick Swisher and Dan Johnson.

First off, let me say that I love what the Crank is doing with ESWL. I think it's a great idea, and the execution constantly entertains. Thanks for putting in the work, Crank!

Getting to his comments about the A's, it sounds like the Crank is just reluctant to flat-out predict the A's as AL West champions. But in his heart of hearts, he believes. It's hard not to. The Angels look to be re-loading a bit this year, and the A's have (almost) all the pieces - a large handful of quality starters, a solid bullpen, excellent defense and a deep lineup. The superstar slugger is missing from the middle of the lineup, but there's just too much talent on the roster to let that get in the way.

I'm entering this season with high hopes. Let's go A's!

Baseball Musing's AL West Preview

Baseball Musings: AL West Preview

I like [the A's] a lot. They are a young team, but at the same time they have experience. If you look at the lineup, you expect most of the players to be on their way up. That's always a good thing.

The addition of the veterans is similar to the move the Cleveland Indians made in the mid 1990's. They developed a good young team, and when they were ready to win, Hart brought in Murray, Hershiser and Dennis Martinez to plug the holes with solid veterans. Bringing in Thomas, Bradley and Loaiza does the same thing for the A's.

The pitching and hitting were going to be better simply due to the maturation of the players. Actually bringing in good veterans should help even more. My guess is Oakland wins the division.

Good thoughts in there from David Pinto. Looking back a little further in the A's own history, these moves remind me of the Dave Parker and Harold Baines acquisitions in the late 80's. The A's had a strong pool of youngsters in back-to-back-to-back Rookies of the Year in Canseco, McGwire and Weiss -- adding those veteran bats helped the team make 'the leap' towards greatness.

Here's hoping Frank Thomas and Milton Bradley turn out as well.

Hoping for Sanity

Irate White Sox G.M. calls Big Hurt ‘idiot’ - Baseball - MSNBC.com

Angry and disgusted with the latest comments from former slugger Frank Thomas, Chicago White Sox general manager Kenny Williams fired back Sunday, calling the two-time MVP “an idiot.”

This is old news to the fans by now, and I hope Frank is over it too. The Oakland A's need a relaxed, focused Frank Thomas, not a brooding headcase. So, I hope we've gotten this all out of our system and we're ready for a good, clean, healthy year of A's baseball. (And Frank, don't get Milton Bradley riled up - we need him to stay calm too.)

Big Hurt - Almost an Athletic

ESPN.com - MLB - Sources: Athletics, Thomas close to agreement on deal

"The Oakland Athletics and longtime Chicago White Sox slugger Frank Thomas are on the verge of agreeing to a deal"

Thanks to Stad for the link. He and I are both very excited for the 2006 A's. With better luck on the health front this year, they are playoff bound. Bring on Spring Training!

Milton Bradley an Athletic

FOXSports.com - MLB- Dodgers trade Bradley to A's

"The Dodgers have traded outfielder Milton Bradley to the A's for one of Oakland's top minor-league prospects..."

My questions about the deal: (1) How much will the A's pay Bradley? (2) Is there any cash in the deal? (3) Who did the A's give up? (4) Does Milton have his head screwed on straigh?

Sounds like Kotsay in CF, Bradley in RF, Payton in LF, Johnson/Swisher at first and Kielty/Swisher/Johnson at DH... Or some such combination. Looking at that mix, I'm not sure how Frank Thomas fits in to the mix. It would definitely be nice to have a right-handed slugger (can we even call Frank a slugger anymore?), but we've already got so many OF/1B/DH types that are somewhat versatile. We'd have a hard time finding playing time for everyone with the Big Hurt stuck at DH. That depth is nice, but I suppose I'd like to see someone spun off for more pitching depth -- assuming Thomas is still in play.

(And yes, I realize you need a lot of positional depth if you're planning on Frank Thomas being a part of your team.)

UPDATE: A's give up Andre Ethier. I'm starting to feel optimistic about the deal. So is Blez: "I like getting Bradley. But I still think The Big Hurt's power would also be a welcome addition. And then with the rotation and Bradley and Thomas in the mix, look out American League."

Sad Day for the A's

A's announcer Bill King passes away

...after 25 seasons of broadcasting A's games-beginning with the "Billy Ball" teams of the early 80's, continuing with the "Bash Brothers" era that saw the A's make three consecutive World Series appearances from 1988-90 and transitioning to the talented A's teams of present day, King took his place alongside the game's great announcers, both past and present.

Bill King was fantastic. He will be missed dearly by A's fans everywhere.

Farewell Macha

ESPN.com - MLB - Beane bounces Macha as A's manager

"Oakland Athletics manager Ken Macha was out of a job Wednesday after failing to reach an agreement on a new contract, general manager Billy Beane said."

I never felt too strongly about Macha one way or the other, but I know plenty of folks did. Here's hoping the next Oakland manager can be more successful...

Oh No!

Yahoo! Sports - MLB - Athletics place SS Crosby on DL with fractured ankle

"The Oakland Athletics will have to win the American League West Division without shortstop Bobby Crosby."

The A's really struggled when Crosby missed the first two months of the season. I hope they're able to stay hot without him this time.

Back from a Month of Nothingness

I just realized that it's been a month since I last posted here. I spent a week in Ireland (which was fantastic) and went to two weddings, but otherwise I've just been pounding away at work. Busy times here.

In my silence, the A's went on their (mostly) annual wild winning streak and then came back to earth a bit, and now appear (we hope) as if they might have more life in them yet. So are the A's as bad as they were early in the year or as good as they were in their hot streak? My answer, not surprisingly, is that they're probably somewhere in between -- but closer to the "Good A's" we saw at the beginning of August than that "Fantastically Awful A's" we saw back in April and May.

Here are my brief thoughts from back on March 11 and the pre-season AL West ESWL Projection from Baseball Crank. I'd say the A's are better off right now than the "maybe-if-everything-breaks-right longshot" that Crank suggested, and as A's fans we really ought to be happy with how things have played out so far.

If I told you back in March - or even at the end of May - that the A's would be tied for the Wildcard lead on August 25th, you (A's Fans) would have signed up for that in a second. All things considered, you have to be happy about the A's performance this year and cautiously optimistic about this last month-plus of baseball.

Just sit back and enjoy the ride -- don't let the anxiety and second guessing ruin all the fun of the race.

'Nother Deal

A's acquire Kennedy, Witasick

In the team's second trade of the day, the Oakland A's announced the club has acquired pitchers Joe Kennedy and Jay Witasick from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for outfielder Eric Byrnes, minor league infielder Omar Quintanilla and cash considerations.

I'm spent - Check out AthleticsNation for coherent thoughts. I agree with Blez -- These two deals today feel like a 'win now' kind of approach. I'm optimistic about the new guys joining the team and wish a fond farewell to the guys headed out.

Watching Byrnes' and Bradford's distinctive styles over the last couple of years has been fun, and I wish them the best of luck.

Consumation

Red Sox get pen help, acquire Bradford for Payton

The Boston Red Sox tried to bolster their struggling bullpen Wednesday, acquiring right-hander Chad Bradford from the Oakland Athletics in a trade for outfielder Jay Payton and cash considerations.

Notes from AthleticsNation and Catfish Stew. I think we're all waiting to see what happens next. As I (and plenty others) said a few days ago, "you're looking at 8 players fighting for playing time at only 5 spots (OF, DH, 1B)." There absolutely has to be another deal in the works, or we'll all be a wee bit disappointed.

As always, in Billy we trust.

A's Logjam?

A'S REPORT / Trade reported with Boston swaps Bradford for Payton

Assistant general manager David Forst refused to confirm reports in Boston that the A's have completed a deal with the Red Sox that would send reliever Chad Bradford to Boston in exchange for outfielder Jay Payton.

If this deal does indeed go through, the A's would have Kotsay, Kielty, Byrnes, Swisher and Payton in the outfield. And then consider that the A's have Hatteberg, Dan Johnson and an almost-healthy Durazo for first base, and all of a sudden, you're looking at 8 players fighting for playing time at only 5 spots (OF, DH, 1B)

I have to think that one or more of those guys would ended up getting traded, maybe for some left-handed help in the bullpen? Or more pitching prospects?

Great News for the A's

ESPN.com - MLB - Kotsay signs extension through 2008 with Athletics

Mark Kotsay agreed to a three-year contract extension with the Oakland Athletics on Saturday, keeping the reliable center fielder with the club through the 2008 season.

Great news for the A's. Kotsay is a good, solid player - and he's fun to watch to boot. Congrats to Beane for re-signing him.

At Last

A's finally win one after eight straight losses. Thank goodness, and Matt Watson, too.

Recap Here.

Catfish Stew

Baseball Toaster : Catfish Stew : May Day!

"I am grateful the A's finished April with a 12-12 record and only one game out of first despite the injustice of Those Who Play Dice With The Universe." - Ken Arneson

I finally figured out how to get the RSS feeds from Baseball Toaster, and thank god. Ken's post today reminds us how badly the A's offense has underperformed so far in '05. Considering the meager offense and the craptastic performance from Zito (other than today and tax day), we really are lucky to be 12-12.